How resilient is this stuff, though? We’re more than five weeks removed from the poisoning and traces of polonium are still present on a cup in the hotel? How many times has that cup been washed in five weeks?

Halflife of Polonium is dependent on which of the 34 isotopes you are dealing with … anything from microseconds to over 100 years.

The most commonly created isotope if Po-210, made by bombarding Bismuth with neutrons, and has a half life of 138 days … so in one year, a little more than one eight of the original Po isotope will remain.

The stuff is extremely radioactive, gives off 8 times as much Alpha ( He nuclei ) and Gamma rays as Radium … has a visible blue glow, and produces heat in its container as it absorbs the alpha particles.

It would have made a good assassination tool … it gets the target, and kills the ignorant assassin as well … provided a few years pass before someone has the idea of getting out a Geiger counter. In a decade, you would have difficulty detecting the traces, even if you knewwhat to look for.

It clearly shows what I believe are three rounds of smuggling Polonium 210 into London. Each time Lugovoi is overseeing the activities and Litvinenko seems to the Berezovsky’s messenger for status, etc.

Given your take on the cup residue and your thought that Litvinenko was simply a messinger, perhaps, upon arriving at the hotel room, he simply picked up a cup that had already been contaminated and unknowingly drank out of it? That would explain why less polonium was in Litvinenko than the cup’s radioactive residue would suggest (if indeed that is demonstrated to be true). Think of how confounding such an “innocent” mistake will have become.

I tend to believe that if Putin had this thing done, the 210 would have been put inside a vehicle, such as an ice cube, in a laboratory so the granules could be contained and no trace left. Even if one wanted to leave a calling card, a trail of 210 is aleways a bad idea.

Considering who got sick first, perhaps Litvinenko was the carrier of the Polonium and he just had an accident and then used the opportunity to then point the finger at Putin.
He was after all a Russian spy machine operative; if he was going to die anyway why not give Putin the heat.

If I were an operative on a hit mission, Polonium would not be on my list of preferred methods. I would want to do in the subject and not include myself as a victim.
Some materials are just too dangerous or stupid to even try.
Hmmmm…Phosgene, Botulinum, Polonium…uhh no thanks, an ice pick and I’m good.

Perhaps plausible deniability was the impetus but since most people blame Putin any way this doesn’t seem likely.

A big bold message is one thing but taking the heat for possibly getting so many people sick or even involved who have no business being involved is nonsensical.

In any event, the theory must address the Oct 16th contamination in a suite of hotel rooms, the Oct25th contamination is a suite of hotel rooms, the contamination at two security offices, Scaramella’s contamination, and the contamination at Berezovsky’s office. Many of these sites were before the Pin Bar meeting (I think one security office was after the meeting).

Also, for the tea cup to retain Polonium-210, or marks of exposure to Polonium 210, then the amount of material to do this to porcelain should be more than what killed Litvinenko. The tea cup and dishwasher seem to demonstrate a very large amount of Polonium. Much more than Litvinenko ingested.

If the bar was the site of the killing it will be very clear very soon. A lot of people should begin showing up seriously ill. Sadly this mystery will unfold on its own.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/12/10/wrussia10.xml

In the big picture, we have to start asking ourselves whether Russia is a nation or a huge crime conglomarate. It matters because nations, even the effed up ones like the old USSR, have foreign policies. Thugs only have heists and vendettas.

In the L. case it’s telling that both lead theories, smuggling or assassination, suggest Russia is the latter. I still have a hunch that the truth, if it ever comes out, will be more complicated.

Tough to say. I’m open to considering all angles, but on balance, I’m leaning toward the smuggling theory.

Also to be noted,the Chinese have long-term goals, and the Hindus, Christians, the Jews, the Islamists, and everyone else are considered to be beneath the “ancestors” and not worthy of consideration. Don’t forget how many centuries these guys have had to practice.

Classic KGB tactics.

Successful tactics. Look at the papers (and ‘blogs).

Those KGB boys always were good at what they did, unfortunately. I’m leaning toward Putin, but I won’t go out on a limb on this one.

I think this will go down in history as fodder for eternal conspiracy theories.

Even when (if) the investigators wrap up the case and tie it with a pretty ribbon, I doubt that it will be the real truth.

Given the players and those that are on the periphery, whether guilty or not, a cover-up is completely likely, even if they spend more millions of dollars and kill many more people leaving false trails.

1)Litvenenko is dead.

2)Rare Polonium is finally identified as cause.

3)Press has “field day” with story.

4)Rumors abound.

5)Nobody has any idea of what really happened.

6)Press has “field day” with story.

7)More rumors printed as fact.

8)Press has………

And on and on. It’s a very interesting story, and an important one. I for one doubt seriously that we will ever know the truth behind this episode, although my first impression remains my current one: Putin sends message to former comrades.

See previous: Spymania: Everything you think you know is might be wrongTea Cup Mystery – Final ClueA J Strata Many people are making a lot out of a tea cup at the Millenium Hotel in order to conclude that an…

I’m undecided. It’s an important story, though. Please continue to update as the facts unfold!

And thanks for considering all angles.