Stratfor: Has U.S. zeroed in on Zawahiri’s hideout? Update: Pakistan urges NATO to make peace with Taliban

posted at 9:18 pm on November 28, 2006 by Allahpundit

How come Chatty Cathy hasn’t put out any new videos since we torched that madrassa a couple of weeks ago? Is he dead?

Even better, says Stratfor:

The lack of a communiqué from al-Zawahiri is much more likely the result of a conscious decision to maintain radio silence because of a breach in al Qaeda’s operational security net. In other words, al-Zawahiri has likely survived, and is trying to stay beneath the radar. The strike in Chingai, while it did not eliminate al-Zawahiri, must have come very close to doing so…

Al Qaeda’s move deeper underground shows that U.S. intelligence has come very close to triangulating the likely location of al Qaeda’s global headquarters…

The two airstrikes have provided U.S. intelligence with a wealth of information, which the United States can use to pinpoint not just the places frequented by al-Zawahiri and his associates but also his actual hideout, as well as other key al Qaeda facilities that probably lie much deeper in the NWFP [Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan]. This poses a dilemma for al Qaeda, which does not have the luxury to simply shift from one location to another, and this would again explain the decision to go offline…

Al Qaeda’s leaders are likely hiding very close to if not in a heavily populated area that is quite far from the Afghan-Pakistani border. This is actually the best defense the jihadists have in their arsenal; they believe it is unlikely that U.S. forces would conduct a strike so deep inside Pakistan and in an area so densely populated.

On the other hand, the Blotter says senior AQ operatives in North Waziristan, emboldened by the public outcry over the madrassa bombing, are practically wearing Osama lapel pins and no one’s doing a thing to stop them.

You know who I bet would know exactly what to do in this situation? James Baker.

Update: Our allies.

Pakistan’s foreign minister, Khurshid Kasuri, has said in private briefings to foreign ministers of some Nato member states that the Taliban are winning the war in Afghanistan and Nato is bound to fail. He has advised against sending more troops.

Western ministers have been stunned. “Kasuri is basically asking Nato to surrender and to negotiate with the Taliban,” said one Western official who met the minister recently.


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I thought you were going to say Jack Bauer.

Jay on November 28, 2006 at 9:26 PM

I hope they got him, in some ways al-Zawahiri is more important to retire than Osama.
By retire I mean, blow him to bits.

Speakup on November 28, 2006 at 9:36 PM

Is Osama even alive? What is the latest on his status? We haven’t heard from him in a while.

Mallard T. Drake on November 28, 2006 at 9:42 PM

JammieWearingFool, I just posted on that.

Jay on November 28, 2006 at 9:43 PM

Jay, I hadn’t even researched it, but it was a given that either Clinton or Carter appointed the woman. Thanks for confirming it.

JammieWearingFool on November 28, 2006 at 9:46 PM

It seemed we had lost an ally when the government of Pakistan aqueste to the al Qaeda advances in the western portion of their nation. I suspected something other than an about face of policy from Pakistan. I am glad the method behind the madness has finally been revealed. The al Qaeda leaders thought they could hide in plain sight with impunity. This was a master stroke of wisdom by the US military. Triangulate I like that word. Send them all to Kaboomistan!

sonnyspats1 on November 28, 2006 at 9:54 PM

James Baker

/hearty chuckle

urbancenturion on November 28, 2006 at 10:00 PM

maybe its time to pop Musharraf, install a female prime minister and promptly eradicate that entire border area off the face of the earth

Defector01 on November 28, 2006 at 10:09 PM

Defector01 has the only plan that will work longterm.

Griz on November 28, 2006 at 10:13 PM

You mean that same Pakistan that set up the Taliban in the first place? The Pakistan that is pressured from Taliban-friendly internal elements?

Clark1 on November 28, 2006 at 10:17 PM

…bomb Islamabad…with bacon….

Puritan1648 on November 28, 2006 at 11:10 PM

Al Qaeda’s move deeper underground shows that U.S. intelligence has come very close to triangulating the likely location of al Qaeda’s global headquarters…

Manhattan?

jaleach on November 28, 2006 at 11:12 PM

What has happened to the world since the elections?!?

Everybody has gone wacky, adopting a cut and run…

oh, er, never mind…

Kini on November 28, 2006 at 11:17 PM

You guys always getting my hopes up. It’s getting old.

Drtuddle on November 28, 2006 at 11:27 PM

“Kaboomistan” hehehe

I’ve lost track of how many times we’ve lost track of this guy. Let us know when we actually get him.

Tony737 on November 29, 2006 at 12:09 AM

trying to govern Pakistan is like herding cats along a tightrope, while drunk. The regime there has to bow in three or four directions simultaneously, and a day where you aren’t assasinated is a Good Day

They let Osama hide out there, and they let us hunt him–sort of. Think about what will happen to the current Paki regime if/when their army kills Osama.

My guess is they will eventually find him and kill him, but not admit it or allow his body to surface. THey may even let US forces kill that POS, but again, no photos and no proof and no body.

Janos Hunyadi on November 29, 2006 at 1:02 AM

I’ve asked this question before and received no response. So, I’m asking again: Does that photo reveal a dent in his forehead? It really looks like an impact crater of some sort.

thedecider on November 29, 2006 at 1:07 AM

….it’s his Third Eye, winking at us.

either that, or it’s his Second Asshole

In a perfect world, it would be a laser sight from….pick your favorite firearm

Janos Hunyadi on November 29, 2006 at 1:28 AM

I was just thinking it explained so much about his behavior and world-view. Whatever it is, it seems the impact didn’t go deep enough.

thedecider on November 29, 2006 at 1:31 AM

Makes one wonder just how much al-Quaeda, (or Saudi, for that matter), money has ended up in the hidden coffers of these “senior Pakistani officials.”

For the moment, we need to help our “ally” keep the reigns to Pakistan in hand, because the alternative would likely be a nuclear Islamic Fundamendalist state. However, I hope and pray that plans are underway and intelligence is being gathered against the day when we will have to employ “bunker-busters” or worse to prevent this phantasmagoric scenario.

None of these people are are allies–merely “fair-weather friends” until the clouds start rolling in.

hillbillyjim on November 29, 2006 at 2:15 AM

reigns reins

hillbillyjim on November 29, 2006 at 2:18 AM

In a perfect world, it would be a laser sight from… pick your favorite firearm

M1911A1 w/ 230 gr. JHP’s on board… When you care enough to send the very best.

MOMinuteman on November 29, 2006 at 2:22 AM

In a perfect world, it would be a laser sight from….pick your favorite firearm

No need for a laser sight, a Leupold 8.5-25×50 mounted on a CFSR (aka Barret M82A1 .50cal BMG sniper rifle) will clean out the little crater very nicely.

PS: Scroll that Global Security page to the bottom and watch the 8min vid of the Barrett in action as an anti-materiel weapon.

Freelancer on November 29, 2006 at 2:32 AM

I’ve asked this question before and received no response. So, I’m asking again: Does that photo reveal a dent in his forehead? It really looks like an impact crater of some sort.

thedecider on November 29, 2006 at 1:07 AM
Have you ever seen the awesome ‘Pray Hard’ T-Shirt? The one where the knees are worn out of the guys jeans by constant kneeling to pray. This is the muslim equivalent Prayer rug burn. Which I might ad is totally against the teachings of the bible. “Don’t pray with vain repetitions as the heathens do” is the actual verse.

sonnyspats1 on November 29, 2006 at 4:10 AM

Well we know who is on the AQ payroll.

It is an obvious ploy – to get the idea into the press. The Democrats will latch on to it as a new talking point. They may not agree to surrender, but they will hype the issue for all it is worth.

The enemy would only resort to such maneuvers if they felt backed into a corner, and had read the book on western defeatism.

We sit back and imagine that the enemy is only partially aware of the confusion and partisanship that exists in the west. We pretend that they do not have advisers who understand us as well as any westerner.

Agrippa2k on November 29, 2006 at 5:29 AM

Is that a target on his forehead?

JackM on November 29, 2006 at 8:07 AM

Wow. I’ve heard many grim outlooks on Afganistan from the media, but none have come close to saying that the Taliban are actually winning. I would say that this guy is a redux of Baghdad Bob, except that he is supposed to be on our side. If the media reports from Afganistan were written 60 years ago they would look like this: THOUSANDS KILLED IN NORMANDY INVASION, MOSTLY GERMANS.

BohicaTwentyTwo on November 29, 2006 at 8:30 AM

You know who I bet would know exactly what to do in this situation? James Baker.Chuck Noris

dread pirate roberts on November 29, 2006 at 8:51 AM

…bomb Islamabad…with bacon….

Puritan1648

with flaming bacon wrapped KORANS…better?…yeah?

I love your style Puritan. LOVE it.

seejanemom on November 29, 2006 at 10:38 AM

How exactly do you make peace with AQ or the Taliban? What agreement could be reached that will result in peace other than surrender? If they agree to anything that requires them to cease fire without taking over the country, it will be a surrender by them according to their terms.

And in what sense are they winning? Every time they poke their heads out of their holes, they get hammered. If this is a game of “whack a mole” I really don’t want to be the mole.

George Bruce on November 29, 2006 at 11:27 AM

The Americans’ rulers know how to put their enemies in such a state of mind that they won’t cross the Americans for ten years. They know how to render their enemies incapable of even thinking about taking revenge. Yet they won’t do it.

Kralizec on November 29, 2006 at 12:40 PM

THey may even let US forces kill that POS, but again, no photos and no proof and no body.

Janos Hunyadi on November 29, 2006 at 1:02 AM

Since Dec. of 2001, I haven’t seen convincing evidence that he’s alive. We might never hear how he ended, for good reasons.

Entelechy on November 30, 2006 at 2:06 AM