Hitchens on the return of James Baker
posted at 6:00 pm on November 20, 2006 by Allahpundit
The messiah delivered his plan for Iraq today in Chicago. It’s time to let the Shiites take the gloves off “give Iraqis their country back,” he says, so a pullout “phased redeployment” should commence within the next four to six months. The Carl Levin plan, in other words. Cut and jog.
He also framed the Democrats’ victory as a call for “realism” in Iraq, which brings us to Hitch and the depressing vogue in which Kissingerian Bush bagman James Baker presently finds himself. The awful bottom line:
In 1991, for those who keep insisting on the importance of sending enough troops, there were half a million already-triumphant Allied soldiers on the scene. Iraq was stuffed with weapons of mass destruction, just waiting to be discovered by the inspectors of UNSCOM. The mass graves were fresh. The strength of sectarian militias was slight. The influence of Iran, still recovering from the devastating aggression of Saddam Hussein, was limited. Syria was—let’s give Baker his due—”on side.” The Iraqi Baathists were demoralized by the sheer speed and ignominy of their eviction from Kuwait and completely isolated even from their usual protectors in Moscow, Paris, and Beijing. There would never have been a better opportunity to “address the root cause” and to remove a dictator who was a permanent menace to his subjects, his neighbors, and the world beyond. Instead, he was shamefully confirmed in power and a miserable 12-year period of sanctions helped him to enrich himself and to create the immiserated, uneducated, unemployed underclass that is now one of the “root causes” of a new social breakdown in Iraq. It seems a bit much that the man principally responsible for all this should be so pleased with himself and that he should be hailed on all sides as the very model of the statesmanship we now need.









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Give the Iraqis their country back? Hell, we could give the Iraqis the entire continental United States and the al Queda types would still make up a grievance.
RushBaby on November 20, 2006 at 6:11 PM
All fine; but had we taken Baghdad in ’91, would everything somehow have gone smoothly in a way our taking it in ’03 has not?
We’ve been told Bush 41 “didn’t want to stay for five years” and we’ve been counter-told that that would have been great, considering we’d then have been out by ’96 and with a fresh new Iraq inspiring a new Middle East to boot.
But would we have? Was the only problem a five year nation-building hassle or would it have been worth it because we’d have had that New Iraq by Clinton’s second term (or perhaps Quayle’s first, if 41′s ongoing war in Iraq had won him a second)?
Or would the sectarian nightmare we’ve seen in the last few years have likewise existed in 1991?
Alex K on November 20, 2006 at 6:11 PM
Alex K…
Yes… it would have worked.
The Jihadist movement was MUCH smaller back then. The Madrasas had not indoctrinated the entire generation between then and now with the Anti American hatred we see.
Rememeber, someone born a year or three befoe 1991 would not be 16-18 years old… and those who were entering Madrasas at that time would be about 20 or so…. prime age for a fanatic.
Also remember that the Middle East in general is having much larger families than we do… the average age in Palestine is like 18 years old right now….
So yes… we could have done it easier back then….
and yes… I was there, and truly believe this to be true… I’ll never forget when we were suddenly told to stop… we were all going “WHAT???”!!!
Romeo13 on November 20, 2006 at 6:20 PM
Alex,
Read what Hitch wrote. We had not only the troops, but world opinion, a weak Iran and a weak Syria.
I’m not saying it would’ve been roses and hummus for all, but it sure would’ve been easier than a Saddam who had the UN and a Brit MP in his pockets.
sswenviron on November 20, 2006 at 6:23 PM
I buy that it’d have been easier… But I’m afraid there’s more to the problem than the jihadists, such as lack of trust between Sunni and Shia and between clans within those larger groups. That’s a situation that predates the current wave of Islamism.
Alex K on November 20, 2006 at 6:30 PM
Obama might have been better off keeping his mouth shut and letting people wonder who he was for a while longer. Always suspected he wasn’t too bright; now I know.
bdfaith on November 20, 2006 at 6:30 PM
Or, you know, Islam in general. ‘Course, the moderates would probably prove me wrong.
Editor on November 20, 2006 at 6:44 PM
I have a bone to pick with Hitch on this. Would it have been a good idea to confront Saddam Hussein down in Baghdad when he was “stuffed with weapons of mass destruction”? No, no. I think Bush Sr. and the USG had this planned out pretty nicely. Get Iraq to agree to give up the WMDs. Spend a lot of time finding and destroying most of his arsenal, weaken his military power further with sanctions. Then, as we did, go for the final blow.
The only problem seems to have been that we waited too long. Clinton should have gone for the take-down at the end of 1998. That would have been before al Qaida and bin Laden had built themselves up to the enterprise they were in 2001.
But we could play the hindsight game all night. I don’t think Hitch is being all that wise in claiming we should have taken the road to Baghdad in 1991, though.
Seixon on November 20, 2006 at 6:50 PM
Oh, the value of hindsight.
gary on November 20, 2006 at 7:08 PM
Of course Baker didn’t want to finish the job in ’91. Why??? Because that would mean Israel would be free to squash the paleostinians, and the Jew-hating bastard that is Baker couldn’t allow that. Geez, wake up people
Andy in Agoura Hills on November 20, 2006 at 7:17 PM
Test
Andy in Agoura Hills on November 20, 2006 at 7:18 PM
With regards to world opinion, the French abstained from the UN Security Counsel Resolution authorizing military action, which I believe the resolution is what everybody means when they say “world opinion,” only to protect their oil interests. Had Bush pushed for regime change, world opinion would have turned quickly.
As for the assumption, spoken by others posting, that it would have been easier, and hence, succeeded if the regime change had been undertaken in 1991, I can only say that you’re dreaming. It is never “easy” to build a democracy from scratch. And to believe that a society of tribal and sectarian loyalties, despite the appearance of a unified nation, could be built into a democracy by simply removing the dictator 10 years earlier is delusional.
bert169 on November 20, 2006 at 7:57 PM
The “allies” that Kerry said he would work with, Kennedy and their ilk did not want to pursue the Gulf War and our own home grown igits…did’t either. Half a job, half measure and look what they are responsible for! Now Paris burns nightly, Britain is looking for 1600 Al Queda cell members; Holland is getting raked over the coals for the burka; the crazies in Indonesia are doing their thing; CAIR allied with ACLU to sue the pants of anybody that disagrees with ‘em. We should have finished the damn job!
Give Iraq back, Jack. But don’t ask our military to save your a.. when they come to take off your scrawny little neck or Rangel’s fat one either.
Sorry, BUT I AM P….d!!
sharinlite on November 20, 2006 at 8:31 PM
Nobody has mentioned transnational progressives were much weaker in ’91. They, or their forebearer, were still smarting from the fall of the Soviet Union.
I was against occupying Iraq back then but then I did not imagine that Islamists would run a terrorist operation which would bring down the WTC and kill thousands.
I have never liked Baker because he has always stood for the status quo even when that meant molifying our communist enemies in the name of stability. This is why Bush 1 was caught flat footed by the fall of the Soviet Union. Does anyone remember the deafening silence from them when the east Germans were crossing the border en masse.
Just think, we could have avoided that if Reagan had chosen Phil Crane. Damn.
Bill C on November 20, 2006 at 8:41 PM
Iraq and the feasability of stopping today’s war by handling yesterday’s war better….
A lesson form Machiavelli, The Prince, Chapter III:
…I’ve posted this here before, but you can never guarentee that what you’ve written has ever been read…and this bit bears rereading.
Ol’ Nick didn’t know much about political correctness, but he *KNEW* politics.
Ol’ Hitch knows a thing or three about politics, history and bad politics that comes from not learning from bad history. He’s got this one nailed. The funny thing is that another player was heavily in the “end the war now” scenario back then: Colin Powell.
There’re too many polish, accomplished and established men in fine suits and linens, well educated and well thought of, messing up our government and advising it into oblivion. We need a few of the unpolished, unschooled, un-established, perhaps, putting an oar in right about now.
It matters little how they posture at the cocktail soiree. At the Duchess of Richmond’s ball before Waterloo, Wellington praised a general was not for attire or his dancing, but for how he “danced with the French”. A lady, making light, observed that one dances with them “in a field”.
That’s just the sort of fellows we need in Washington today…those adept at dancing a jig with the enemy, and at making him dance to a merry tune.
Puritan1648 on November 21, 2006 at 12:57 AM
Puritan1648 nailed it with his citation from The Prince.
I wasn’t so sure in 1991, but I am sure now that had Bush 41 continued the war and taken Baghdad, much of the Jihadist activity that we suffered through in the 90′s might not have come to pass.
In addition, the Shiia militias would have been non-existent, leaving only the Sunni/Ba’athists to deal with.
Coupled with the fact that our military was at least 60% stronger in 1991 than today, I believe that had we occupied Iraq then, most of the “insurgency” could have been suppressed quickly because of the larger number of US Troops.
All Bush 41 (and Baker) did was “kick the can” down the road a bit. Hence Baker really doesn’t have much credibility AFAIC.
georgej on November 21, 2006 at 4:10 AM
The Jihadist movement was MUCH smaller back then.
What made the jihadist movement strong in the 1990s? Partial answer, American “occupation” of Saudi Arabia and the blockade / air bombardment of Iraq. If we’d gone into Iraq in 1991, the jihadis would have been even more fired up. Furthermore, the jihadis also got all fired up over the defeat of America in Somalia. Assuming Clinton still wins in 1992, can anyone doubt that when we started taking casualties in occupied Iraq, he’d start spinelessly looking for a way out?
Hitchens is absolutely correct in that Baker and Gates are Kissinger’s lackeys. We can expect the same formula for Iraq from them that Kissinger applied to South Vietnam – throw it to the wolves and let it become a Russian puppet state.
Lehuster on November 21, 2006 at 8:04 AM
Abso-freakin’-lutely. Crushing the Baathists and forcefully removing Saddam in 1991 would have sent a very strong message around the world that we are not to be messed with. Had we done so then, there would likely have been no Mogadishu, no embassy bombings, and no 9/11. Instead, we took the exact opposite course suggested by the dead-on Machiavelli quote as we put off the larger war to our enemy’s advantage. We did the same thing in Korea back in the 1950′s. Look where it’s gotten us in both cases.
Hitch is on the money with his assessment of Baker. James Baker is a perfect example of someone that would sacrifice others and his own principles to political expediency and then dress it up with the term “realism” to cover his sorry ass. The fact that he will have influence over our present Iraq policy can only mean bad things and more conflict in the future.
thirteen28 on November 21, 2006 at 11:26 AM