Steele: It’s not over Deflating update Update: It looks like it’s over
posted at 11:05 pm on November 7, 2006 by Bryan
Michael Steele was just on local TV. He’s 11k votes up now with 38% counted, and absentees not among that. According to my source, the early call for Cardin to win was based on exit polls and past patterns. But Michael Steele has very probably broken Maryland’s past voting patterns, earning at least a quarter of the black vote. At least.
Cardin just claimed victory even as he’s fallen behind by a few thousand votes. His number one priority in a time of war–health care! Which won’t matter all that much if terrorists hit us again.
Bottom line: Steele hasn’t conceded. He can still lose, but as of now he’s ahead, calls for his defeat were premature and Cardin is still an empty suit.
Go Michael Steele!
Update: I don’t want anyone to get carried away–including Democrats like Cardin who already claim this race is in the bag. This race isn’t over.
Update: Time for a little deflation. The current numbers, which have Steele in the lead by a few thousand, have come from Maryland’s red or reddish counties. There are some big blue territories yet to be counted, and Cardin’s apparently picking them up solid. So it’s not over, but it’s looking shaky for Steele at the moment.
But don’t forget–absentees have yet to be factored in, and it’s likely that Steele is going to do better among the black vote than Republicans traditionally do in MD.
Update: Well, Maryland is a blue state, and now that the blue territories are getting counted Cardin’s jumped to a six point lead. Though the WaPo has retracted its projection for Cardin to win, CNN hasn’t and I think it’s fair to say that given which counties have and haven’t been counted, Cardin will end up winning. Unfortunately.
Caveat: According to the Steele campaign:
Steele continues to overperform in Montgomery County. The precincts in PG left outstanding are more Republican and will move us up.
There are almost 200,000 absentee ballots – a record number – that have not been counted.
That’s why they’re not conceding yet. It is mathematically possible for Steele to pull back in. It’s unlikely, but possible.
Blowback
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Claimed victory based on exit polls?
On the menu?
Crow.
Slublog on November 7, 2006 at 11:07 PM
I’m calling the race for Cardin because that’s how the state went in 1876. You can’t debate me because I work for CNN.
Nethicus on November 7, 2006 at 11:08 PM
Thank you Jesus!
Valiant on November 7, 2006 at 11:10 PM
If Steele wins, I can be happy.
frankj on November 7, 2006 at 11:10 PM
Good! I’ve been yelling at my TV all night over this. Don’t put Maryland in the D column yet.
Melba Toast on November 7, 2006 at 11:11 PM
fox just said a newspaper withdrew cardin projection
SCGOPgirl on November 7, 2006 at 11:13 PM
WaPo withdrew projection
SCGOPgirl on November 7, 2006 at 11:13 PM
Good work Bryan. Thank G-D!
CanaryinaCoalMine on November 7, 2006 at 11:13 PM
Fox News even called it for Cardin 5 seconds after polls closed. Their coverage has been pathetic. I expected better from Hume et al.
roninacreage on November 7, 2006 at 11:14 PM
Steele is the only saving grace tonight. Someone needs to put him on the ticket in 08. Great speaker. Great presence.
lorien1973 on November 7, 2006 at 11:15 PM
Lest you forget. In 2004, when Kerry was “supposed” to win, Fox turned all chummy to the democrats so they could make sure to get their precious interviews. Same thing tonight, Fox is all chummy with them to get those interviews after they take power. Fox is not our ally, just less of an enemy than the other stations.
lorien1973 on November 7, 2006 at 11:16 PM
Washington Post just retracted their call for Cardin. It’s 2000 all over again, with hopefully the same final result.
Physics Geek on November 7, 2006 at 11:16 PM
They have that wet-blanket Kristol on tonight. What do you expect?
thedecider on November 7, 2006 at 11:22 PM
Erlich is still up at the poll on Fox’s Website too.
SCGOPgirl on November 7, 2006 at 11:23 PM
CanaryinaCoalMine on November 7, 2006 at 11:26 PM
Having lived in Maryland many years ago, and looking at the county by county breakdowns, seems to this novice that Steele’s actually doing pretty well. Would like to see the 25% of the vote he’s getting in Prince George’s edge up towards the 30s, but it’s a race. That’s my story and stickin’ by it.
itomania on November 7, 2006 at 11:26 PM
Did you see this pic? The check next to Cardin’s name when Steele is up? Chicken counting.
Donnah on November 7, 2006 at 11:26 PM
52 to 47 Ehrlich:
O’Malley:
318,816
46.92%
Ehrlich:
353,153
51.97%
nukemhill on November 7, 2006 at 11:28 PM
50 to 48 Steele:
Cardin:
327,778
48.30%
Steele:
339,790
50.07%
nukemhill on November 7, 2006 at 11:30 PM
“and eat it!”
- The Cat
MirCat on November 7, 2006 at 11:31 PM
The deep red of Maryland would be so sweet.
Theworldisnotenough on November 7, 2006 at 11:31 PM
I haven’t understood this projection all night. At CNN’s website, it has Steele at 50%, and Cardin at 48%, with only 48% of precincts reporting. here
Fair enough. But, other similarly close races they have not called, with more precincts reporting, and with a wider margin between candidates (Tennessee, Missouri…). Does it have to do with the political makeup of the remaining precincts?
nailinmyeye on November 7, 2006 at 11:31 PM
The Terrapins colors are red, it is only natural.
Theworldisnotenough on November 7, 2006 at 11:31 PM
nukemhill, cms I live in San Diego. I have a branch of the family in Bethesda, Upper Marlboro, and Ellicot City.
Theworldisnotenough on November 7, 2006 at 11:32 PM
I used to live in San Diego. For 15 years. Most of it in Scripps Ranch. Our old house narrowly escaped the fires a couple of years ago. It’s a great city, but I’m glad I don’t live there anymore. It out grew its infrastructure (especially the highway system) and it got real hard to get around anywhere there.
nukemhill on November 7, 2006 at 11:37 PM
C’mon people. Let’s not start acting like a bunch of DUmmies when things don’t go our way. Sure FoxNews makes mistakes, but by and large, they have made huge strides in bringing Media closer to being “fair and balanced.” Of course, we’re far from that point. However, I’m not ready to start throwing rocks at’em.
In some ways, the House is paying for Senate’s (plus dubya’s) mistakes (think immigration).
hillbillyjim on November 7, 2006 at 11:37 PM
World, that’s an interesting family spread, they must be having a whale of a fight tonight.
cms on November 7, 2006 at 11:37 PM
Now CNN has Cardin ahead again by 20,000
infidel4life on November 7, 2006 at 11:38 PM
Well San Diego is not L.A. yet.
Theworldisnotenough on November 7, 2006 at 11:38 PM
Or perhaps is has to do with the political makeup of those in the newsroom who decide which races will be called.
thirteen28 on November 7, 2006 at 11:38 PM
Montgomery, Prince George’s, and Baltimore City are holding their votes…
Theworldisnotenough on November 7, 2006 at 11:40 PM
Do white people live in those counties?
Theworldisnotenough on November 7, 2006 at 11:40 PM
Precincts I mean.
Theworldisnotenough on November 7, 2006 at 11:41 PM
That big Cardin swing is a party classic. And here’s the latest on VA
VA – U.S. Senate
98% Precincts Reporting
George Allen (i) Republican 1,133,424 (50%)
Jim Webb Democrat 1,126,510 (49%)
Glenda Parker Independent Grassroots 25,248 (1%)
cms on November 7, 2006 at 11:42 PM
Cardin just jumped ahead by 20K. Baltimore City’s coming in.
nukemhill on November 7, 2006 at 11:43 PM
Dang Baltimore dropped a bomb.
Theworldisnotenough on November 7, 2006 at 11:43 PM
typically, where party machinery is powerful, they get an idea of what they need to win, and when they are confident of the proper number they then submit their results. party machinery is strong in Baltimore City and Prince Georges, I don’t know about Montgomery. Its no surprise to me that these results are reported, but this means that Ehlich beat former county commissioner Steele in Prince Georges–no f—— way.
cms on November 7, 2006 at 11:45 PM
I was wondering why Fox News called it for Cardin when he was down by more than 10 percent.
V15J on November 7, 2006 at 11:47 PM
Wow – Michelle & Fox News just broadcast this post to the whole world!
That’s what’s not being factored into the polling models I saw. (Doesn’t mean it will swing Steele’s way but it’s one valid reason to hold off the call IMHO.)
RD on November 7, 2006 at 11:51 PM
Prince George’s is stuck on 25% for Steele. Baltimore City: 21%. Not looking good. Dang.
itomania on November 7, 2006 at 11:53 PM
Steele’s hopes rest in Anne Arundel, Allegany, and absentee ballots.
Theworldisnotenough on November 7, 2006 at 11:54 PM
hillbillyjim- on the plus side, big pro-illegal GOPs Chafee and DeWine lost… what does that tell you? I wish that would be a take-away but it’s not.
But the President is already talking passing ‘illegal immigration reform’ with the Dem House. Pathetic.
I hope Steele pulls it out; good guy. I pray we keep control of the Senate.
linlithgow on November 8, 2006 at 12:01 AM
Molten Steele?
Kokonut on November 8, 2006 at 12:07 AM
Ok. What would the prospect be for Steele to run for president in 2008? And give all his energy over the next two years. Does he have the making of a president?
Takes anyone?
Kokonut on November 8, 2006 at 12:10 AM
Any updates on Irey Vs Murtha?
- The Cat
MirCat on November 8, 2006 at 12:24 AM
I can’t believe that we just lost the House AND the Senate. Ridiculous.
DaveS on November 8, 2006 at 12:34 AM
I wonder how long before I start hearing the prayer calls 5x a day down here in good ol’ bama.
p0s3r on November 8, 2006 at 12:40 AM
p0s3r, you’ve got a while. l337 speak repels Islamists, and most everyone else. :-)
DaveS on November 8, 2006 at 12:44 AM
well, the American people have spoken. Wrong direction?
Maybe this shows the terrorists our weakness as a country. No longer the great generation of the 20′s and 30′s. A sad day for America. Once Bush leaves, or the dems repel the Patriot Act or any of the important anti terrorist measures….we will be attacked again.
msipes on November 8, 2006 at 1:30 AM
p0s3r
I don’t know about that, but Impeachment hearings begin January 3, 2007.
Spiny Norman on November 8, 2006 at 1:58 AM
All this is the arrogant liberal Bush’s fault. The dumb joke.
LZVandy on November 8, 2006 at 2:35 AM
Well, at least the republicans will be forced back to their fiscally conservative roots. Many of the new Dems are conservatives. Pelosi may have a tough time becoming Speaker and 2008 is not that far off. We have 2 years to get our house in order and we will.
bopbottle on November 8, 2006 at 3:24 AM
YOU GUYS…did you sleep—-come on…(heeheehee)
I went to bed at 9pm (East) becasue there was no sense being pissed off AND SLEEP DEPRIVED today.
NOW its raining like hell….where was this piss from a boot rain YESTERDAY?
seejanemom on November 8, 2006 at 5:07 AM
Michael Steele is a good man and I hope he will live to fight another day.
seejanemom on November 8, 2006 at 6:31 AM
AMERICA DESERVES WHAT IT GETS.
seejanemom on November 8, 2006 at 6:38 AM
The only positive thing I can say, is that the majority of the “vote for change” Dems who got elected appear to be “Kirsten Powers” Dems.
If this is the case, and they aren’t just a bunch of “Pelosi’s Lemmings” I think that Congress will be in good shape. However, if they end up being just empty suits who have been perpetrating a “conservative Democrat” fraud, then the country is in serious trouble.
E L Frederick on November 8, 2006 at 7:39 AM
and yes, I think “conservative democrat” is an oxymoron, which is why I am coining the new phrase “Kirsten Powers Dems”
E L Frederick on November 8, 2006 at 7:40 AM
The thing is, EL, is the new Dims will all be freshmen with absolutely no power. They’ll learn pretty fast what happens to a puppy that strays from the pack if they try to vary from the party line. Pelosi and Reid will isolate them and cut their nuts off.
I’m not under any illusion that now that the Dems are back in power they won’t ram it down our throat.
BacaDog on November 8, 2006 at 8:20 AM
Never owned a gun but now I’m going out to buy one. I’ll be damned if I’ll take up the Islamic faith!!!
Golfer_75093 on November 8, 2006 at 8:24 AM
Exactly! They always want US to play nice, but you can forget that when they control things. Oh, American voters. I had more faith in you…you were DUPED!
SouthernGent on November 8, 2006 at 8:58 AM
The investigations are coming.
Esthier on November 8, 2006 at 9:00 AM
I’m with you Golfer; I’ve never owned a gun, but I decided weeks ago that if the Dems win on election day then my security will be lessened… I’ve already looked into taking a beginning pistol course.
dalewalt on November 8, 2006 at 9:22 AM
RINOs DINOs WINOs
Ok I’m awake…..head hurts like hell…..
It is Animal Farm time chil-rens! Dhimmis/MSM will completely marginalize the moderate Democrats.
Jimmy Carters ‘malaise’ is back……bigger and badder.
Now what are you going to do about it?
Limerick on November 8, 2006 at 9:23 AM
لن تقدم
Dread Pirate Roberts VI on November 8, 2006 at 9:28 AM
“Appear” being the operative word here…
I’m afraid their quazi-conservative wizardy was nothing but smoke and mirrors and a small man standing behind a curtain.
Washington changes people–inevitably for the worser.
SunnyBrook on November 8, 2006 at 9:35 AM
This shift in power in Washington scares the hell out of me. Just finished reading the two-part article by Diana West (thanks for the links, MM) about what Pres. Bush shoud say to the American people. A couple of you have noted you’re ready to become gun owners now that Sharia has a much better chance of infiltrating our society. Let me say that the Dems had better get a clue or there will be a whole lot of gun-toting, conservative, RED-blooded Americans out gunning for these &^#@! Muslims who want to take over the world. Freedom isn’t free, and it surely won’t take care of itself. Lets hope the new face of our government doesn’t completely blow it and leave us vulnerable. Once the people sense the government no longer is protecting them, they’ll take the matter into their own hands. That, my friends, could get ugly indeed.
karatecon on November 8, 2006 at 10:28 AM
Why do black Americans keep voting Democrat? What has the Democrat party done that was GOOD for black Americans? I’m really curious to know the answer to this one.
SouthernGent on November 8, 2006 at 10:56 AM
Alright, well, we took our licks and now we regroup. As MM said, at least conservatism is still alive.
Isn’t it telling that many Democrats had to appear conservative to get elected (Heath Shuler immediately comes to mind). We can only pray that these Dems will vote their beliefs and not just toe the party line.
Is it dumb to wonder if we couldn’t create the Moderates, a party that both sides could embrace? Many people want independents to have a shot, without their votes just benefiting one party, as votes for Perot did for Clinton. How interesting would it be if we had a greater than 2 party system? Or would that be more of a nightmare?
And I like Fox News, but how about a better morning show (with more news, less goofy antics), or a second conservative TV channel? Seriously, way too many Americans are getting their news only from the liberal MSM’s newspapers and morning talk shows.
If the GOP had embraced the Fair Tax, would we have won?
And lastly, how much do you love Foxnews.com for putting this picture smack dab on its home page this morning:
http://www.foxnews.com/images/root_images/110806_clinton_hillary.jpg
Thanks for providing a forum for my random thoughts :) I am feeling just a little more optimistic after reading MM, Boortz, and listening to Glenn Beck. I’ll no doubt feel even better after 3 hours of Rush.
eucher on November 8, 2006 at 11:23 AM
I don’t know. When I voted yesterday, there was a black woman in line behind me. We got to talking a little, just chit chat about the line and such.
But then she said, “I don’t even know who I’m voting for.”
I kinda wanted to laugh. I just said, “Really? You haven’t decided yet?”
And then she said, “Well, Democrat…”
It just seemed like she’d settled into the futility of voting Democrat. She didn’t even know who was running. She just knew to vote “D”.
Whatever the reason black Americans vote Democrat, we need to figure it out and reach out to them.
Esthier on November 8, 2006 at 12:45 PM