HuffPo exit polls: Dems lead all Senate races except Tennessee, Arizona; Update: Mehlman yawns Update: Real numbers start to come in from VA
posted at 6:00 pm on November 7, 2006 by Allahpundit
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SENATE EXIT POLLS AS OF 5:30 EST: Democrats Leading: Virginia (52-47), Rhode Island (53-46), Pennsylvania (57-42), Ohio (57-43), New Jersey (52-45), Montana (53-46), Missouri (50-48), Maryland (53-46)…GOP Leading: Tennessee (51-48), Arizona (50-46)…
That’s eight. They need six for control.
Hotline also has the Dems sounding optimistic.
Let the recriminations begin!
Update: Via Karol, more grim numbers from the New York Observer:
Casey 61 - Santorum 38
Cardin 51 - Steele 48
McCaskill 53 - Talent 46
Webb 55 - Allen 45
The spread in Pennsylvania seems unlikely.
Special look-on-the-bright-side update! Kaus:
Just asking: What does it tell you about a political party if in a year of epic disaster for their opponents the best they can hope for is a 51-49 majority in the Senate? … 8:21 A.M.
Update: Hugh Hewitt laughs it off.
Update: Fox is reporting that Hastert’s office has warned House Republicans to expect losses of up to 30 seats.
Update: ABC News has a generic exit poll, e.g., six out of ten voters disapprove of Bush’s handling of Iraq, etc.
Update: “It’s strategy. I know what I’m doing.”
Update: ABC House exit polls:
“Preliminary exit poll results indicate that nearly six in 10 voters today disapprove of the way President Bush is handling his job. About four in 10 approve of Bush’s performance. That’s down from 53 percent approval in 2004, and 67 percent just before the 2002 midterm elections. About four in 10 “strongly” disapprove of the president’s work, more than double the number of strong approvers. Intensity of sentiment for and against, by contrast, was about equal in 2004: Thirty-three percent strongly approved of the president’s performance, and 35 percent strongly disapproved. And in 2002, strong approvers dominated, quite a contrast from today.”
Update: Ken Mehlman isn’t impressed with the exit polls.
Update (Bryan): What we’re hearing about turnout from the GOP’s internals mostly doesn’t square well with the exits leaked to HuffPo via Swing State Project (ever heard of them? Me either.). So…don’t panic.
Update: Geraghty’s not panicking: “Anything within 7 is a dead heat.”
Update: (Bryan) Turnout looks heavy in VA. Real returns are finally starting to stream in, and so far they’re looking good for Allen. But it’s verrrry early. Update: Webb now up, with about 7% of precincts reporting in. I think the whole night’s going to be a see-saw ride.
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You know what an exit poll means?
Absolutely nothing.
I bet the people who like them have immediate gratification issues.
Wait… that’s the whole baby boomer generation, right?
jeffshultz on November 7, 2006 at 6:06 PM
Whatever
Gregor on November 7, 2006 at 6:06 PM
You’re posting a poll from HuffPo? And taking it seriously?
SouthernGent on November 7, 2006 at 6:07 PM
Exit polls=meaningless.
If Dems lose any of the above seats, they will cry voter fraud and Republican tampering.
elpresidente on November 7, 2006 at 6:08 PM
This is great news. This will only serve to make Faith Hill’s reaction look very mild.
Editor on November 7, 2006 at 6:08 PM
And John Kerry is the President too, right?
D_bot on November 7, 2006 at 6:08 PM
Drudge let us down. We have no leakers to the right. Which means HuffPo may be correct.
Valiant on November 7, 2006 at 6:09 PM
You can almost guarantee they will post polls like this simply so they can set up the “they cheated” screams later. Notice how all of these polls are said to be “super secret” or “leaked” or other indications that they are completely made up.
Gregor on November 7, 2006 at 6:09 PM
A year? Try 3.
Constantine on November 7, 2006 at 6:09 PM
Well, from now until the polls close, the people who work for a living will be voting, right? :-) It seems that should give the Republicans a little lift.
Kralizec
http://kralizec.wordpress.com/
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 6:09 PM
One legit caveat–I’ve never heard of HuffPo’s source for its polls. Could mean nothing, could mean something.
Bryan on November 7, 2006 at 6:11 PM
FNC just reported a rumor that Hastert is warning Republican to expect a loss of up to 30 seats.
Valiant on November 7, 2006 at 6:11 PM
Ah, a replay of 04. I remember it well. Singing and dancing in Copley square in the afternoon turned to tears in stiff drinks that night. The suicide hot-line was busy that night. Ah, those were the days…
TheBigOldDog on November 7, 2006 at 6:11 PM
Good point Krazilec.
Exit polls,didn’t they try this crap before?
bbz123 on November 7, 2006 at 6:13 PM
Krazilec you beat me to the punch…
NTWR on November 7, 2006 at 6:13 PM
Santorum toast. I like that guy.
Drtuddle on November 7, 2006 at 6:13 PM
Well, if the Democrats win, then I, for one, welcome our new muslim overlords. I was getting sortof tired of counter-jihad, anyway.
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 6:15 PM
The back part of that rumor is that Hastert denies having said so.
yo on November 7, 2006 at 6:16 PM
Uh … don’t forget THIS.
Gregor on November 7, 2006 at 6:16 PM
Anyone figure out where HuffHo’s exit poll numbers are coming from yet? Not from the link she provides.
RightWinged on November 7, 2006 at 6:16 PM
I pronounce the ugly truth so others don’t have to, NTWR. :-) It’s just one of the ways I serve humanity.
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 6:17 PM
It’s an interesting point. They ought to be careful what the wish for. If things turn out the way I fear they will be exposed and be finished as a part for generations.
TheBigOldDog on November 7, 2006 at 6:17 PM
Chris Wallace on Fox gave a preview of exit polls questions, and the numbers they have must look very bad for R’s. The late deciders alone were 65/35 for D’s. Most people were deciding on “national issues” and they were overwhelmingly D.
So I believe those HP numbers are the real exit polls. The real question is how accurate are they?
Clark1 on November 7, 2006 at 6:18 PM
Me too
wytammic on November 7, 2006 at 6:18 PM
Exit polls do not account for absentee or early vote ballots, do they?
I don’t know about the rest of you, but I heard numerous reports of record early voting and absentee ballots, so I’m dismissing the HuffPo post as another 2004 redux.
Fly_in_Ointment on November 7, 2006 at 6:21 PM
These exit polls usually come out right about this time in order to suppress voter turnout of those who would be driving from work.
This is a replay of 2004.
januarius on November 7, 2006 at 6:22 PM
There seem to be a few states missing, notably CT as well as MI and WA. Why no house results? I would expect a legit source to have access to all the data. The numbers could be correct for non absentee voters. It is odd that they concede that the GOP is leading in races that aren’t a big surprise.
rw on November 7, 2006 at 6:23 PM
HuffPost!!!!!!!…My word it is the HuffPost??????….
NOT like biased or anything.
Limerick on November 7, 2006 at 6:23 PM
I just remebered the early exit polls in 2004 had Kerry up by 20 points in SC. I have safely rationalized the problem away!
Clark1 on November 7, 2006 at 6:23 PM
Is there any way we can not get all nuts about stupid exit polls tonight? Let’s be judicious. It isn’t over by a long shot.
Januarius is absolutely correct.
ahem on November 7, 2006 at 6:24 PM
I haven’t voted yet, nor has my wife. We’re heading out soon. Maryland is going deep red this year!
Only kidding, I think.
Attila (Pillage Idiot) on November 7, 2006 at 6:28 PM
these numbers are ridiculous
I don’t care what immediate exit polls say
Defector01 on November 7, 2006 at 6:29 PM
HuffPo update:
EXIT POLLS (WITH A GRAIN OF SALT)
added to the numbers.
Valiant on November 7, 2006 at 6:33 PM
Anyone want to bet HuffNPuff got those numbers from Zogby ?
William Amos on November 7, 2006 at 6:33 PM
If events in Europe go the way that Mark Steyn has predicted, I can imagine the Republicans using Europe’s example to their advantage. Social-”welfare” benefits, unrestricted immigration, inability or unwillingness to control crime, indifference to fertility, multiculturalism, and the pretense that governmental support of marriage can reasonably be about anything other than the wellbeing of children are all failures the Europeans and the Democrats have in common. The discredit of Europe will reasonably work to discredit the Democrats, as well.
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 6:34 PM
Allah,
Chelsea intimidated!
RightWinged on November 7, 2006 at 6:36 PM
Ah, heck with the Rocky stuff … let’s show something real happening against the odds:
George Foreman (45 years old) vs. Michael Moorer, 10th round, Big George trailing badly on the scorecards and needing a miracle KO to win. Listen to the pessimistic (for George’s chances) commentary right before the big shot.
It happened! IT HAPPENED!!!!!!!
Ignore these exit polls people. It’s not over until Rosie O’Donnell sings.
thirteen28 on November 7, 2006 at 6:37 PM
We’re Up. We’re Down. We’re In. We’re Out. We’re freaking crazy is what we are……
Everybody grab a six pack, two ‘loved ones’, and pro-create.
It is all we can do people. It is alllllll we can do.
Limerick on November 7, 2006 at 6:38 PM
The poll workers who prevented Chelsea from voting will all be found dead with gunshot wounds to the head.
If it really happened, which I doubt. I can recall Hillary’s claim that Chelsea had been jogging a block from the WTC at the time of the attack.
Nothing that family says is accurate.
Gregor on November 7, 2006 at 6:39 PM
“I’ll huff and I’ll puff and I’ll blow your polls down!”
- Wolfy Rove, 11/7/06
infidel4life on November 7, 2006 at 6:40 PM
http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/blogs/politicalticker/2006/11/gop-slogan-punch-foley-for-negron.html
Allah, this surely deserves its own blog post. :-)
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 6:41 PM
I’d say off the top of their head…
SouthernGent on November 7, 2006 at 6:42 PM
Amen, sir.
Constantine on November 7, 2006 at 6:46 PM
Have a couple or three for me, Limerick, and few for Allahpundit, too. Offspring, I mean, not beers.
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 6:47 PM
Which is where Zogby gets his
William Amos on November 7, 2006 at 6:47 PM
Exit polls are just like surveys. The people that produce the results lead the information in the direction they need it to go.
Any exit poll is ainted by the time of day it is taken because of demographics. Most conservatives have 9-5 jobs and won’t be able to vote until they get off work. This allows the “exit pollers” to project large democrat turnout because the republicans are still working.
If we had any sense we would make it law that no news organization can report results until 7:00 a.m. pacific time the next day. This would allow all votes to be tallied in all districts without the voter depression that the major networks try to inject the west coast with.
Just my two cents worth. :)
ArkCon on November 7, 2006 at 6:47 PM
Constantine, you’re advocating high Republican fertility? I admire your public-spiritedness.
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 6:50 PM
Look, guys. The new outlets let this stuff out at the peak dinner hour. Relax and call every friend you have on the West Coast and tell them to vote.
This is but one more flea-bitten Democrat canard.
ahem on November 7, 2006 at 6:50 PM
If we have any sense, we’ll avoid setting any more precedents for infringement on First Amendment liberties!
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 6:52 PM
My polling station is near Central Park South of NYC. There are no exit polls, so I obliged them by calling out every Republican name as I flipped the switch. They didnt give me a sticker as I left.
Donkeyhue on November 7, 2006 at 6:57 PM
Lol Hugh Hewitt just said that the exit polls have Lamont up as an example of the BS.
V15J on November 7, 2006 at 6:58 PM
wake me when its 7pm PTZ
Defector01 on November 7, 2006 at 6:59 PM
Everyone should just go watch Borat this evening. The numbers won’t change by you sitting and staring at the TV screen.
lorien1973 on November 7, 2006 at 7:06 PM
More love = less war, brother.
Constantine on November 7, 2006 at 7:06 PM
I thought an exit poll is something you flush when you’re done.
Kini on November 7, 2006 at 7:09 PM
Heh, I don’t watch exit polls. I’ve never been exit polled, I just assume that they find the most Democratic areas and poll everyone that comes out.
So, when Thursday rolls around, I might look to see who actually won.
RiverCocytus on November 7, 2006 at 7:10 PM
This is bullcrap. Today when I went to vote the exit poll lady was righr there, but skipped me and asked the lady behind me. I walked past two pollster and no one asked me. They selectively choose who they want to poll….
LaVentanita on November 7, 2006 at 7:14 PM
On his website, Mark Steyn predicts, “G.O.P. HOLD HOUSE AND SENATE.”
http://www.marksteyn.com/
Apparently, he’s not kidding, as he links from his site to NRO, where he’s posted the details of his predictions. Scroll to the bottom of the page at the URL below; the folks at NRO have let Steyn have the last word.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NWZkZmNmMGY2OGMyMTU2MjczNjEzYjQyZDMzZDU4M2Y=
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 7:24 PM
A commenter called cat4amt over at Ace of Spades brings us the following good news…
The first results are in and it looks like a victory for the Republicans.
EFG on November 7, 2006 at 7:25 PM
1 % reporting in VA, Allen up 57 to 42, over the dark side. Hopefully it will keep going like that. http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 7:25 PM
More sex, if unthwarted by “poisons of sterility,” leads to more mujahideen, counter-mujahideen, or dhimmi, as the case may be.
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 7:29 PM
12 % reporting, Allen 49.77 bad guys 49.02
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 7:49 PM
14.45 % reporting bad guys 50.73 Allen 48.08 Hopefully it will turn around.
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 7:53 PM
16.78 % reporting Allen 50.54 bad guys 48.33
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 7:54 PM
19.69 % reporting bad guys 49.49 Allen 49.33
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 8:01 PM
30 % reporting Allen 49.56 bad guys 49.20 If we win this seat, with these numbers at the end, I foresee many lawsuits and childish fits by the other side.
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 8:10 PM
35 % in, bad guys 392,854 Allen 392,816
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 8:13 PM
41 % in Allen 50.60 bad guys 48.17
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 8:20 PM
52.52 % in Allen 50.85 bad guys 47.93
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 8:34 PM
57.47 in Allen 50.20 bad guys 48.59
anetmabo on November 7, 2006 at 8:39 PM
I can’t believe I am seeing these returns and early numbers.
Don’t listen to the soldiers on the ground, who say pulling out would be wrong… no; listen to the Dem talking heads who want to get re-elected and scream we should pull out and what’s going to happen? We’ll get Taliban v2 in there, and the jihadis will be emboldened.
The 10% of Mexico’s population that is in the US will stay because with a Dem House Bush will get his amnesty programme for them, and the death knell has sounded for our wonderful economy, what with the imminent rise of long term capital gains.
Good God… I guess I better go brush up on a second language, shop for a good cardboard box to live in and browse the hijab sites…
linlithgow on November 7, 2006 at 8:41 PM
I recommend these as the soundtrack for your election-night nail-biting: Hybrid, “Higher than a Skyscraper,” “Finished Symphony,” “Gravastar,” “Accelerator,” “Kid 2000,” and “We Are in Control.” It’s good music by which to procreate, too, the better to be prepared for the elections of 2026, or the battles of 2025, for that matter.
This message was brought to you by SanDisk, makers of the Sansa m240 portable MP3 player, and Kralizec, a leading expositor of the Typhoon Struggle.
Kralizec on November 7, 2006 at 8:42 PM