It’s prediction time, baby
posted at 2:09 pm on November 5, 2006 by Allahpundit
Suddenly, everything’s coming up roses: the new WaPo poll puts the generic-ballot margin at six points, due in part to an inexplicable uptick in optimism about Iraq; Mason-Dixon sees Senate momentum for the GOP, particularly in Rhode Island and Montana; and Joe Lieberman, bless his heart, is being touted as the new legislative kingmaker before whom the nutroots must kneel to have their initiatives pass.
And yet … a chill wind blows.
The Weekly Standard has already weighed in. Bill Kristol’s predicting catastrophe. I think Duncan Carrie and Victorino Matus are closer to the mark. 50/50 Senate, 226-209 in the House.
A little food for thought from Orson Scott Card while you mull:
[T]here are no values that matter to me that will not be gravely endangered if we lose this war. And since the Democratic Party seems hellbent on losing it — and in the most damaging possible way — I have no choice but to advocate that my party be kept from getting its hands on the reins of national power, until it proves itself once again to be capable of recognizing our core national interests instead of its own temporary partisan advantages.
To all intents and purposes, when the Democratic Party jettisoned Joseph Lieberman over the issue of his support of this war, they kicked me out as well. The party of Harry Truman and Daniel Patrick Moynihan — the party I joined back in the 1970s — is dead. Of suicide.
Update: Almost forgot this. Who said it?
If the Republicans somehow manage to defy expectations and retain control of House and Senate, this dangerous denial will be empowered and enhanced. Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld will be all the more convinced that they are right and all the more determined to pursue their manic dream of remaking the world. They will be like Nixon, the last to realise that their own fantasy has ended — but, unlike Nixon, with a Congress of their own party they will be able to drag the entire country with them. If that happens, the centre in America will not hold. And we will be facing severe strife within America itself — as well as a potential disaster in the Middle East…
My own profound hope is for a resounding victory for the Democrats. That’s not because I agree with them on every issue. Far from it. But I can recognise incompetence, fanaticism and recklessness when I see them; and right now, all three have seized the White House and the Republican leadership. It will be good for the Republicans to lose this election.
What do you suppose he means by “severe strife”?
Update: Is KP taunting the Chairman?
Update: In light of the two new polls, Dean Barnett e-mails to say that he was optimistic before feeling optimistic was cool.
Blowback
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Post-election margins
House – R+19 (the generic polls are worse than meaningless)
Senate (a lot more complicated) – R+1 election night, even by Christmas 2006 when Leapin’ Linc leaps, D+1 3/15/2007 when another RINO gets bought (move up the bought-and-paid-for ‘Rat takeover timetable to Christmas 2006 if Leapin’ Linc doesn’t get the chance to leap).
As for which RINO bolts, I’ve got it narrowed down to 4 – Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Arlen Specter and John McCain. The first 2 are already for all intents and purposes other than caucusing ‘Rats anyway, Specter would get support from his new party for blocking every Bush judicial nominee in committee, and McCain is THAT power-mad, er, -hungry (well, I was right the first time).
steveegg on November 5, 2006 at 8:43 PM
For everyone who predicts Republicans will pick up seats in the House… you’re all smoking crack, whether you are aware of it or not.
I’m thinking the Dems pick up between 10 and 15 House seats. So I say about 50/50 Republicans hold the House (with a spread of +/- 3 seats either way), and I have little doubt the Republicans will hold the Senate.
DaveS on November 5, 2006 at 8:47 PM
DaveS
Smokin’ crack is good! (just kidding) I do believe the house will suffer, but the senate will not. 10-15 seats? No freakin way! They will pick up a few seats, but not enough for the majority. Neither will they win the Senate.
Neocon Peg on November 5, 2006 at 9:01 PM
I strongly, resolutely and profoundly predict that the 06 mid-term elections…are generally, unpredictable.
What’s good about this election year is that friends and foes of our representative Republic have been forced to show their true colors after being held up to the light of day.
From both sides of the isle and from both party committees.
Speakup on November 5, 2006 at 9:13 PM
You are aware that the uncertainty is whether the Dems will get the THIRTEEN they need to take the House, right? If they pick up 10, 11, or 12, the Republicans barely hold on.
I think that any expectations that the Dems will pick up less than 10 are completely unfounded. I would love to be wrong, though.
DaveS on November 5, 2006 at 9:17 PM
And I am basing my 10-15 number on a nearly blind faith that pollster turnout models are obsolete and currently favor the Democratic candidates by 3-5%.
DaveS on November 5, 2006 at 9:19 PM
Well well WELL! Is it time to say I Told You So?
Republicans might lose 3 seats, but one of those will be McAffee who is no republican.
While I know it is too close to call for the House, I’ll predict that it remains in Republican handsby at least 2 seats.
The Michigan races will go well for Republicans if it rains.
On past Michigan Polls…
Thursday, November 2 Posthumus -11 (2002) finished -4
Thursday, November 2 Engler -12 (1990) yet won by less than 1
Friday, November 3 Stabenow -12 (2000) yet won by 1
Sunday, November 5 Engler -17 (1990) yet won by less than 1
Monday, November 6 Abraham -13 (1994) yet won by +9
So much for polls. :oP
DannoJyd on November 5, 2006 at 9:27 PM
In Detroit, St. Louis, and Arlington, VA, rain doesn’t appear to pose much of a threat for Tuesday, unfortunately.
DaveS on November 5, 2006 at 9:33 PM
I fear this also. many on the left feel that Bush and Co literally stole the last three major elections. A fourth win will serve to simply confirm those suspicions in their minds. The Left is so sure of a victory on Tuesday that anything less must be illegitimate. If Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate, it must be because of fraud. For many (most?) on the left, there is no other explanation.
My prediction? Dems will likely take the House. The Senate is too close to call.
jasnell on November 5, 2006 at 9:37 PM
The latest results on The Corner look great in the Senate, with 5 seats well within the margin of bias for polls. With Chafee gone in the Senate, that’s great for SCOTUS, which is what the next two years is all about. The House is another matter. There just don’t seem to be that many we can retain. My own guess is that is just the way Rove wants it. There will be gridlock on spending, which will bring the deficit down, and a pull-out from Iraq because of a budget showdown will trigger another killing field in Iraq in time for the November 2008 evening news.
pedestrian on November 5, 2006 at 9:45 PM
Republicans hold Senate lose 2 seats
Republicans hold house lose 6 seats
EricPWJohnson on November 5, 2006 at 9:52 PM
Correction: I meant Lincoln Chafee who is no Republican.
30% chance of rain where I live in Michigan. ;o)
DannoJyd on November 5, 2006 at 9:56 PM
Republicans keep both houses
Lose one in the senate
Lose two or three in the house
Take it to the bank, baby
Chuck on November 5, 2006 at 10:01 PM
Win some, lose some. Net gain of 1 in the Senate and 4 in the H.o.R.
Tony737 on November 5, 2006 at 10:20 PM
Overall, I’m going with near 50-50 in each. Should prove interesting.
One thing for sure, though – unless both sides learn to actually work together in a true bipartisan manner, we’re in collective deep doo-doo shortly.
Emmett J. on November 5, 2006 at 10:29 PM
Republicans keep both houses, 1 in the Senate, 3 in the House. I’m not sure I like that, btw.
htom on November 5, 2006 at 11:16 PM
I predict Michael Stark remains handcuffed.
JackM on November 6, 2006 at 12:06 AM
The Democrats suck and they deserve to lose and lose big!
Murtha’s gonna get re-elected? I don’t think so.
DeLay and Foley, who were both strong incumbents, get taken out by trumped-up scandals and now we have write-in candidates there and they’re gonna lose?
(BTW, if the GOP-led House hasn’t been able to do much the last year, it’s because Delay wasn’t there to ram their fine legislation through and the Dhimmicrats knew that would happen when they took him out with those fake charges of “money laundering!”)
Not one New Yorker is going vote against Hillary? She is beloved. Oh yeah.
People, get a grip! The Democrats are losers, virtual traitors in many cases and at best, nothing but America-hating socialists.
Vote them out and do it Tuesday!
Jen the Neocon on November 6, 2006 at 12:49 AM
right now, i’m not going to perdict anything – only because i like to watch what happens this coming tuesday. if the GOP win both houses, i would really like to see what our resident liberals here have to say(if they decide to show-up)also i would like to see what Rosie O’Donnell / Michael Moore / George Clooney & the rest of the Hollywood left are going to say. i wonder how Keith Olberman is going to say if the Democrats do lose both houses.
Starblazer on November 6, 2006 at 12:53 AM
The more I read this and this, the more I ask myself, with the GOP gain seats?
Then I say… nah.
Christoph on November 6, 2006 at 1:10 AM
Dewine and “Sanitorium”, as Perot called him, will be the only two repub casualties. Dewine, because of his spinelessness, and the GOP corruption in Ohio, and Santorum for reasons I don’t fully understand. Burns, Allen, and Talent will hang on as will Rino Chaffee. Corker wins comfortably in Tenn, and the big surprise, for the media, will be Steele in Maryland. Kean blew it in NJ, how you can’t defeat the corrupt dems there I don’t know. Kean spent too much time attacking Bush instead of his opponent. This leaves a net loss of one in the senate, meaning GOP control for another two years. In the House, we’re looking at a net ten loss. It will be interesting to see how the dems spin losing Foleys seat as well as Delays, and possibly even Neys. Of course, it will be even more hysterical to see how they spin their defeat. Make no mistake, anything but a landslide for them is a defeat. You cannot preen(sp?) around in the fashion they have for months now and barely gain a majority or worse still remain in the minority. The drive-by M will allow them plenty of wiggle room, but not I.
ritethinker on November 6, 2006 at 1:41 AM
I predict that:
Christop already lives in Canada.
and
How wise this “severe strife” predicting Mr. Sullivan sometimes is, whatever he means by ‘severe strife’ – I doubt that he even knows…
I agree with his commentary
Indeed. The MSM worked overtime to allert the country of the coming leadership and the good and not-so-suicidal citizenry raised its head and said “wait a minute, I can feel a humongous urge to hurl coming on – we better get our arses out and vote”.
My insignificant prediction:
Senate 51/49 (D/R) and Mr. Lieberman switches to make it 50/50 or 51/49 (R/D).
House: extremely close, slightly positive for the Rs, not decisive due to media hesitancy, one-two weeks of wrangling and finger-pointing. By Thanksgiving all settled. Rs hanging on by a hair. Harakiris, or threats thereof ensue. Mr. Sullivan doesn’t move to Britain.
Mr. K. Olber
mannkinddeiversthrows a typical puerile tantrum directly at the American voters “you, ladies and gentlemen, are complete morons; you, l & g, had the chance of a lifetime and blew it; you, l & g, could have listened to me and save yourselves from “severe strife”, as AS warned you, but didn’t. I will now have to fight for you idiots, l & g, for another two years”Personal favorite predictions, for winners, because I despise their opponents, and because it would drive the media and the leftie bloggers bonkers, and because there are major implications:
Lieberman
Steele
Schwarzenegger
Entelechy on November 6, 2006 at 2:19 AM
The Republicans will retain control of both Houses.
Here’s what Rep. Rahm Emanuel of the DCCC said: “I don’t know what to make of it,” over the upsurge in favor of the Republicans.
I know, Rahm. YOU’RE TOAST!
georgej on November 6, 2006 at 4:36 AM
I predict we’ll be greeting Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority leader, Harry Reid on Wednesday!*
*I also predict snow flurries in Hell.
TexasRainmaker on November 6, 2006 at 7:44 AM
Dems take house with 224; Reps keep Senate with 51.
honora on November 6, 2006 at 9:17 AM
‘pugs lose the house by several seats, barely retain the Senate. Electronic voting systems exhibit anomalies (not all of them benefiting Republicans). Bush is not impeached. The warrantless wiretapping decision is upheld, eventually. Iraq situation stays more or less the same, as does the spin on both sides. In late 2007, troop reductions begin. Republicans who would call such reductions “retreat” if they happened under a Democratic POTUS will cheer them as indicative of success… regardless of the truth. Saddam is hung in early-to-mid 2007, sparking a few weeks of increased violence, and a few weeks of increased vapidness on the part of American political commentators (“what does this MEAN?!“)
Another SCOTUS judge dies, but Bush is unable to get a nominee confirmed before he leaves office. Fewer than 500 victims die on American soil because of terrorism in the remainder of Bush’s tenure. The Administration will insist it is not for lack of trying.
I’m probably being too safe with these.
Mark Jaquith on November 6, 2006 at 9:23 AM
Republicans win both houses handily.
Big surprise on both sides of the aisle. Acrimony. Tears. Wailing. Gnashing of teeth. Self-immolation. Lawsuits. Mass emigration to Canada.
ahem on November 6, 2006 at 11:21 AM
Christoph, sorry I ‘bodged’ your (pen) name. It wasn’t an intended joke, nor meant to blame Mr. Bush; I sincerely apoligize to you and everyone on this board, and I blame no one for their misunderstanding :)
“This makes me nervous” – also R. Emanuel, via no other than the NYT. I bet you anything those at the Times are nervous too.
Entelechy on November 6, 2006 at 12:06 PM
I am shamefully optimistic that we will retain both houses. Albeit, by a smaller majority.
Barntender on November 6, 2006 at 1:25 PM
For what it’s worth. I certainly hope Conservatives keep both.
As for the Orson Scott Card comment. I agree 100%. I’m a Moderate Conservative, and the Libs -used- to have a lot to offer. Sadly, most have gone insane recently, and apparently completely lost their gonads.
I miss Independent voting America, sure it was about 200 years ago, but one can dream. Be nice to have a choice somewhere between Flag-burning Communists and Gay-bashing Religious Right(Yea, I know..the psychos on both sides get all the press*sigh*) Just as an Atheist Conservative I wish the movement would turn back to the ideals of the Founding Fathers…And no, I don’t support the ALCU, and I’m not offended by the Cross or the Star of David,ect in public places, blah blah, ect ect
In Florida here too, and yea, Harris doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning, we all knew that months ago. We have great chances for the local elections though. Crist will take Governor for sure.
The Polls are all off. I’ve seen ‘legitimate’ websites that call Florida a ‘Heavily Democratic’ State. Have you seen our gun laws? Texas is proud of us.
I hope, in the hearts of all Americans, it comes down to one thing: The Troops. The very idea that American Troops can’t win/fix the current situation is ,frankly, an idea that simply doesn’t exist in the hearts of most Americans. And to even suggest that idea, while not treason, is extremely distasteful..to say the least.
To the Ultra-Left ’round here. The reason Iraq and Afghanistan are taking so long is very simple. It’s because the US Military is the best, and they’re training the other guys up to our standards. Rome wasn’t built in a day.
And now I’ll shutup…Completely off topic by now, I know..sorry
KeaponLaffin on November 6, 2006 at 3:06 PM
My predictions… posted on 2 other sites I frequent as well.
And I hope to revisit this thread to see what happens.
As of October 24, 2006… I make the following predictions. I’ll revisit this on the 8th.
1) The Dims will declare and scream about instances of voter fraud and disenfranchisement. While they will have lost in those areas by a slim margin, and maybe even a large margin, so that those allegations look foolish and end up being totally unfounded. (like in 2000, like in 2004)
2) For weeks afterward… Demz: “Why Why Why did we lose?” Yet, the answers are obvious. And if the 50th Congressional District is any indication…
3) Olbermann has an aneurism http://www.olbermannwatch.com Sheehan, too. Moore loses his appetite (imagine that)
4) The Dimz start to back away from Pelosi, ect, and begin to mention that the economy and employment is good, Will start to work with Bush on Iraq… This election was a WARNING… Adding as of 11/6: Kerry will be ousted. He represents failure for the party, and will be blamed for losses because of his asinine statements. Dean will be deposed as party chairman. If Kerry reps. failure for his lost presidential run, what about Dean, who never even got to the starting block?
I never trust polls. Noone I know, and myself included, have ever been asked to take part in any poll. With so many polls being quoted, you’d think at least 1 person I know… Then again, it’s all about data mining. You can get any answer you want if you dig deep enough.
Mazztek on November 6, 2006 at 3:48 PM
-3 Senate, -10 House.
Clark1 on November 6, 2006 at 5:11 PM
I’ve lost faith in the American Sheeple.
I sadly predict Dhimmicratic control of both houses by a slim margin.
irishsquid on November 7, 2006 at 11:27 AM
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