GOP within four on Pew’s generic ballot, Pelosi preemptively alleges vote-rigging; Update: Gallup sees Dem lead shrink by six

posted at 9:33 pm on November 5, 2006 by Allahpundit

This, combined with that WaPo poll released this morning, makes it a two-alarm fire with Gallup still to come later tonight. If we’re close there too, the Times is going to put a special flag-draped coffin photo series insert in tomorrow’s edition.

Pew always does a nice job with tables of the key data so click that first link and breeze through. Points to note: (a) not only has the margin among likely voters narrowed from 53-40 in early October to 47-43 now, but the number of undecided voters has increased by three points to 10%; (b) voters who say they’ve given “quite a lot of thought to the election” are up three points in the last month among Democrats — and 16 points among Republicans; and (c) sweetest of all, check this out.

pew-kerry.png

The ABC-WaPo poll didn’t ask about Waffles, unfortunately, but Loseweek is worried. Quote:

Chuck Schumer got right to the point. On Thursday afternoon, the New York Senator, who’s leading the Democrats’ efforts to win back the Senate, called John Kerry and let him have it. The Massachussetts Senator’s supposed “botched joke” about the president’s handling of Iraq had become a feast for Republicans—sucking up tons of airtime and knocking Democrats off message in the crucial remaining days before the midterm election. Kerry’s attempts to fight back, by calling the Republicans “stuffed suits” and “right wing nutjobs,” was only prolonging the story and making things worse. Apologize now, Schumer told him, according to a high-ranking party official who didn’t want to be named talking about a private conversation. (A source close to Kerry said the exchange was cordial.)

Meanwhile, Pelosi says if she’s not the incoming Speaker of the House on Wednesday morning, it’s because the GOP cheated:

In an interview from her Capitol office, Pelosi characterized Tuesday’s vote as a referendum on the war, shrugged off President Bush’s efforts to make her liberalism a national issue, described the current GOP leadership as a “freak show,” and expressed confidence about her party’s prospects to pick up the 15 seats it needs for a majority.

“I know where the numbers are in these races, and I know that they are there for the 15; today (it’s) 22 to 26,” Pelosi said Friday.

Pelosi cautioned that the number of Democratic House victories could be higher or lower and said her greatest concern is over the integrity of the count — from the reliability of electronic voting machines to her worries that Republicans will try to manipulate the outcome.

“That is the only variable in this,” Pelosi said. “Will we have an honest count?”

New York City’s most popular tabloid used today’s lead editorial to address a comment she made a few weeks ago on 60 Minutes to the effect that “war on terror” is a precise synonym for “Afghanistan.” It’s a solid piece but the takeaway is the rebuttal graphic. Click for full size.

nyp-pelosi.jpg

I’ll update when the Gallup poll comes out. For now, Cheney’s got the right mindset.

TerminatorCheney2.jpg

Update: Here’s Gallup. It’s officially a trend, but probably not enough. We’re still seven points down, although…

“Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House,” says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive…

What’s shifted is the determination of Republicans to vote. The Democratic advantage among registered voters was 11 points, but Republican voters were more likely to be judged as sure to go to the polls, making the edge among likely voters smaller.


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Advice to Dems:

“Don’t look back; they may be gaining on you.” – Satchel Paige

right2bright on November 6, 2006 at 10:53 AM

Gosh, wouldn’t you guys feel sorry for the democrats if they lost on Tuesday after having their expectations ratcheted up by poll after poll and all the coverage by the MSM telling them that a huge 1994-like tidal wave was in the offiing?

Me neither.

thirteen28 on November 6, 2006 at 10:54 AM

Yeah, six more weeks of winter.
The good news is, that was the secret signal to start our illegal voting. I am waiting for my secret call from Rove and “Operation Stop the Vote”.

Welllll…her face does appear frozen at all time.

SouthernGent on November 6, 2006 at 11:05 AM

This election is not a referrndum on the Iraq war; it’s a referendum on the idea that we are at war with radical Islam. Is or is not Islamism a problem?

Those who vote Democrat this election are admitting they still don’t get it.

ahem on November 6, 2006 at 11:15 AM

Polls in general have gotten more and more unreliable over the years. I’m with Dean Barnett on this one.

There’s no reason to forecast gloom and doom just yet. The GOP is holding the House and the Senate until the election results tell me otherwise. Anything else is really an exercise in alarmist reaction, in my opinion.

If I’m wrong, then I’m wrong; but why would I want to be?

Cary on November 6, 2006 at 11:20 AM

That botched Kerry football fumble photo never gets old. Does anyone know who threw that pass? Was it one of his staffers? Whomever it was, they couldn’t have placed themselves any better, with the blinding rays of the Sun right there in Lurch’s field of vision.

CliffHanger on November 6, 2006 at 11:31 AM

Lurch serves at the pleasure of Karl Rove…

CliffHanger on November 6, 2006 at 11:32 AM

what a great photo.

Hening on November 6, 2006 at 12:02 PM

CliffHanger, don’t make fun, he petitioned for a purple heart after being “blind-sided” by an errant pass. He placed his body in direct peril, stopping the errant pass from hitting an innocent bystander. It is all in his military record and you will read about it when he releases them next week.

right2bright on November 6, 2006 at 12:25 PM

Ah yes… Ann Coulter, the election expert.

Constantine

What are you, a liberal? How you’d get here? Sorry bud, but you took a wrong turn in San Francisco. Go back and join Pelosi’s freak show.

jaleach on November 6, 2006 at 12:40 PM

Allah,

If the R’s hold both houses, I’m counting on you to track Laurence O’Donnell where ever he appears on TV, because there’s going to be gold. My bet for best tantrum of the postgame. Olbermann will just be in full denial and pushing the conspiracy theories about vote rigging. Basically what his show is every night.

Dudley Smith on November 6, 2006 at 12:44 PM

The Saddam verdict of crimes against humanity made me think of something.

Kerry needs to be brought up on charges of crimes against humility. har har har

/lame

urbancenturion on November 6, 2006 at 12:44 PM

People in GA have a chance to vote out at least one Dem from the House. With redistricting we have a couple of Dems who now have strongly Republican sections added to their districts. Mine is one of them. The Dem candidate is David Scott, the incumbent and his opponent is a, get this Howard Dean, a female African American women who happens to be a doctor. Deborah Travis Honeycutt.I wonder what Pelosi respons will be if they lose this seat?

LakeRuins on November 6, 2006 at 1:00 PM

“Does anyone know who threw that pass?”

Son of b*tch staffer through it too hard from too close. John Kerry doesn’t drop passes.

No, but Lord do he fumble.

smellthecoffee on November 6, 2006 at 1:08 PM

How pathetic is a party that needs all of the mainstreem media to help them win an election? Can the Dems do anything on their own? Can the Dems even wipe their *mouths* themselves? If they’re so incompetent that they can’t even win an election on their own, how can anyone vote for them? But of course they’re already getting ready to charge voter fraud. Pathetic! What losers! What wimps!

foxforce91 on November 6, 2006 at 1:10 PM

Did anybody notice in the pew poll that only 16% of democrats think terrorism is a top concern compared to 41% republicans? Not to mention 60% democrats sight Iraq as the main concern. I am not sure but aren’t we fighting terrorists in Iraq?

Go figure.

wdlp1965 on November 6, 2006 at 1:13 PM

Not to mention 60% democrats sight Iraq as the main concern. I am not sure but aren’t we fighting terrorists in Iraq?

If you’re democrat/whig you aren’t fighting terrorists, you are only creating more of them.

SouthernGent on November 6, 2006 at 2:27 PM

“Does anyone know who threw that pass?”

Son of b*tch staffer through it too hard from too close. John Kerry doesn’t drop passes.

No, but Lord do he fumble.

smellthecoffee on November 6, 2006 at 1:08 PM

If Republicans end up keeping both houses tomorrow, John Kerry will end up as the Earnest Byner of the democratic party (with apologies to long-suffering Cleveland Browns fans).

thirteen28 on November 6, 2006 at 3:00 PM

My bet is that the Democrats will contest close elections until they win — no matter how many made up lost ballots they need to come up with.

After all it worked in Washington State.

CrazyFool on November 6, 2006 at 3:16 PM

What are you, a liberal? How you’d get here? Sorry bud, but you took a wrong turn in San Francisco. Go back and join Pelosi’s freak show.
jaleach on November 6, 2006 at 12:40 PM

I’d like to think Hot Air tolerates my presence because they realize there are a significant number of commenters here who enjoy engaging in a little political debate and exchange of ideas.

But of course, there are others here who can’t tolerate any information that conflicts with their world view, and instead choose to engage in tiny-minded namecalling.

Constantine on November 6, 2006 at 3:43 PM

In making such pessimistic predictions, I would venture that you all are forgetting about the military vote, which, if I understand it correctly, won’t necessarily be totally tabulated until at least a week after tomorrow.

I would suggest that the MSM (and pollsters) haven’t taken this into account either. This could mean the improbable happens and the pubbies not only keep both chambers, but actually pick up seats. Not making any predictions on this happening, but it could be – especially in light of the Kerry mal-adroitism (personally, I believe that pubbies keep both houses).

In any event, I believe that neither the MSMers nor the pollsters have a clue.

Natrium on November 6, 2006 at 4:50 PM

In making such pessimistic predictions, I would venture that you all are forgetting about the military vote, which, if I understand it correctly, won’t necessarily be totally tabulated until at least a week after tomorrow.

Natrium on November 6, 2006 at 4:50 PM

The Democrats are probably just planning to disenfranchise military voters (again) so that won’t be a problem. I’m sure they think the troops are too stupid to be allowed to vote anyway.

ReubenJCogburn on November 6, 2006 at 4:59 PM

I’d like to think Hot Air tolerates my presence because they realize there are a significant number of commenters here who enjoy engaging in a little political debate and exchange of ideas.

…nah…it’s your dashing demeanor and rapier wit….

…of course, my athlete’s foot is pretty savvy, too….

…and it won’t bloody go away, either….

Puritan1648 on November 6, 2006 at 7:02 PM

It never ceases to amaze me how paranoid people get about the elections.

I said people to be magnanimous, but, the only experience I have with people being paranoid is watching Democrats discuss Republican shenanigans.

My father is a staunch Democrat and my mother is a staunch Republican. This morning I got a call from my mother. My dad is volunteering with his local democrats today and tomorrow for the election. My mom needed to get his car licensed (it had expired a couple days before). My dad said he would go with her (which he’s never offered). My mom said it was no problem and he didn’t have to. My dad then said, “I have to go to make sure you don’t do any delaying tactics. I wouldn’t want you to keep the car out so long that I wasn’t able to go volunteer today.”

Riiiiight. My mom is so concerned about my dad supporting the Democrats that she was willing to spend 14 hours at the DMV just to make sure he couldn’t volunteer tonight.

Tomorrow he’s poll watching to make sure that Republicans don’t do any delaying tactics to stretch out the lines in Democratic areas (apparently, elderly poll workers are all Republicans in MO).

On a side note, if the ‘delaying tactic’ is the Republican’s big “evil plan”, we really need to hire a better evil genius than Karl Rove. Delaying tactics don’t get people out of the line at Kmart…they certainly aren’t going to get people to leave the line at the polls.

JadeNYU on November 6, 2006 at 7:28 PM

If the Dems win it will be two years of investigaton, hearings, impeachements and cutting and running. This is going to be a tough time. The idea of Popeye as Speaker just sends chills down my spine. John Conyers, Harry Reid, …it just gets worse. But wait, what if the Reps pull this thing off and retain control or at least some control? These guys will have to move to another country to be elected to a position of control.

d1carter on November 6, 2006 at 7:46 PM

It certainly is no surprise to see that 93% of defeatocrats don’t seriously consider Lurches comments as something affecting their vote.

Ah, but I guess their patriotism is unquestionable.

91Veteran on November 6, 2006 at 11:02 PM

Hey,

Just in general I would not make fun of Kerry’s war record regardless of how many times he mentions it – he did serve – he did lose friends – he was under fire.

He gives us plenty of Ammo every time he opens his mouth, we can give him a pass on the others.

EricPWJohnson on November 6, 2006 at 11:12 PM

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