Hot Air Mobile
Home The Vault Gear About
Hot Air -- get your fill  

Steele in statistical dead heat with Cardin

posted at 12:18 pm on November 3, 2006 by Ian
Send to a Friend | Share on Facebook | printer-friendly

I’m waiting SurveyUSA to post details about the poll, but until then:

steel-cardin-dead.jpg

UPDATE: Mary Katharine Ham interviews Steele.


Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

This probably means that Steele is actually ahead.

JasonG on November 3, 2006 at 12:19 PM

Good trick….

Add em up and its 101%!!!!!

Yep… good job statisticians!!!

Romeo13 on November 3, 2006 at 12:24 PM

This probably means that Steele is actually ahead.

Ya think?

Editor on November 3, 2006 at 12:24 PM

all that matter is what happens in the privacy of the booth.
Steele will win this handily.

bbz123 on November 3, 2006 at 12:24 PM

“Senator Steele”—sounds pretty cool.

jdpaz on November 3, 2006 at 12:25 PM

Zeese, do the right thing. Tell your followers to go vote for Steele.

shooter on November 3, 2006 at 12:25 PM

Ah yes, aother ABC poll . . . this definitely means that Steele is ahead.

rplat on November 3, 2006 at 12:25 PM

Let’s hope Mr. Undecided drops out of the race and asks his supporters to vote for Steele! Any chance of that happening?

Kevin M on November 3, 2006 at 12:30 PM

Ya think?

Such a skillful riposte! I am slain! Slain!

JasonG on November 3, 2006 at 12:33 PM

Rats, someone else can do math here.

I was going to say that ABC certainly bumped Cardin up a % so that they didn’t have to post Steele takes lead, but as usual they expect the sheeple to not notice 101% total.

Freelancer on November 3, 2006 at 12:36 PM

See Allah no Bradley effect.

Theworldisnotenough on November 3, 2006 at 12:38 PM

Well, I’m sure they’ve rounded everything up, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt on that 101%, especially since they’re claiming to have a 3.8% error.

Esthier on November 3, 2006 at 12:38 PM

Slightly off topic, but related. We all have heard that Wikipedia can be edited. Just a couple of minutes ago, I looked up Karl Roves chapter and found this:

2000 George W. Bush presidential campaign and the sale of Rove + Company

In 2006, it was discovered that he is a blatant homosexual. He has fornicated several babies, and masturbated a turnip. What the HELL IS THIS DOING HERE???

I didn’t put the homosexual turnip reference in. I put the what the hell is this doing in here. First time I ever edited a Wikiarticle. WooHoo!

Anyway, I wonder if similar BS has been put in Micheal Steeles profile. I’m not too familiar with the details of his bio, so I’m not really qualified to edit/proofread his profile.

Anyway, for what ever it’s worth, thats what I saw and thats my two cents.

EFG on November 3, 2006 at 12:39 PM

It’s funny (to me) that they show the results in whole percentages, but the margin of error is shown as 3.8%. It’ll be nice to see the internals to see which way the rounding went.

jdpaz on November 3, 2006 at 12:40 PM

2000 George W. Bush presidential campaign and the sale of Rove + Company

In 2006, it was discovered that he is a blatant homosexual. He has fornicated several babies, and masturbated a turnip. What the HELL IS THIS DOING HERE???

EFG on November 3, 2006 at 12:40 PM

Romeo13,

Good trick….

Add em up and its 101%!!!!!

Yep… good job statisticians!!!

Haven’t you ever heard of rounding? When you have a sample like this, and you round to the nearest integral percentage, the total is always going to fluctuate somewhere between 99-101%.

tommy1 on November 3, 2006 at 12:44 PM

If African American voters evaluated who truly represents them better, they would vote Republican. Which party’s administration gave real support (not just lip service) to more AA’s than any previous administration, by judging based on content of character and ability to do job (Condi, Powell, etc) Answer: Bush-R. Under which party does AA home-ownership steadily increase? Answer: R. Which party panders and says “you can’t do for yourself, here’s a handout, please depend on us instead of yourself” Answer: D. And, it’s always been this way, we conservatives just haven’t touted the truth of it loud enough or often enough. AA’s seeem to forget that Lincoln was a republican, too.

JustTruth101 on November 3, 2006 at 12:47 PM

2006 will be a breakthrough election even if Republicans lose Congress. The breakthrough will be that a significant percentage of blacks will be voting for Republicans for the first time since the Great Depression. This should scare the hell out of Democrats.

chsw

chsw on November 3, 2006 at 12:52 PM

Wow, this is great news!

So somewhere around 1500 of Maryland’s 5.3 million residents who were randomly selected and were willing to pick up the phone and answer questions, who were then winnowed down to those whom calculations predict were likely voters, and who then were run through a weighting program which balances their responses against the results of past electoral polling and the hunch that the pollster has about turnout in this election, definitively have moved this into a dead even race, or a 41-49 race, or a 49-41 race. Go Steele!

Unless, of course, there’s a last minute “trend”.

Some people also swear by stock market trading programs.

I’ll take my bare broken-glass Republican feet over any opinion poll–good or bad– any day of the year.

a4g on November 3, 2006 at 1:02 PM

In 2006, it was discovered that [Rove] is a blatant homosexual.

Well, in fairness… Dick Cheney is legendary for having that effect on the men who serve with him.

DaveS on November 3, 2006 at 1:10 PM

At this rate, Steele will win going away.

Then the media will gush over him, call him a rock star, and promote him for the presidency in 2008.

Oh, he’s a Republican? Nevermind.

JammieWearingFool on November 3, 2006 at 1:12 PM

Have they factored into the margin the number of uninformed voters racists who assume he’s a Democrat?

seejanemom on November 3, 2006 at 1:21 PM

Do check out Mary Katharine’s interview with Senator (I can dream, can’t I?) Steele. The “Hi, Mom” thing is precious.

jdpaz on November 3, 2006 at 1:43 PM

I wish I could vote in that election. Steele has simply owned Cardin in every debate that I’ve seen. I certainly hope he wins.

x95b10 on November 3, 2006 at 1:59 PM

Let’s hope Mr. Undecided drops out of the race and asks his supporters to vote for Steele! Any chance of that happening?

Kevin M on November 3, 2006 at 12:30 PM

The Baltimore Sun article from Tuesday said that a lot more African Americans were saying they were undecided, as compared with before that endorsement from the Prince Georges County Democrats. I think that a lot of people who were definitely planning on voting D are now weighing the possibility of going with Steele. We can only hope.
And I must say, this post has made me happier than almost any other I’ve seen on Hot Air. I can’t WAIT to laugh at all the people driving around with Cardin stickers.

tikvah on November 3, 2006 at 2:04 PM

A dead heat is neither dead nor hot.

infidel4life on November 3, 2006 at 2:07 PM

This means I may be able to return to the ” Democratic Peoples Republic of Maryland” I was able to escape 10 years ago across the Susquehanna River. I fear now that Pennsylvania will soon resemble the DPRM, or what is was….

I rooting for you Michael!!!!!!

dallas94 on November 3, 2006 at 2:24 PM

If Steele wins, Cardin sues. All I can say is, Thank you, Al Gore.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on November 3, 2006 at 2:35 PM

Steele is one of the most important races the Republicans have had in the past 30 years. When he is elected, people will notice that our conservative gate is open (always haas been), and the minority Democrats will begin to walk through those gates. And we welcome them and their families. They can be free, reach their potential, achieve for themselves what the Democrat leaders have arrogantly kept for themselves. The minorities will learn that we (conservatives) want them to be educated, successful, with strong family values…we care for them, and are saddened that they have been kept down by the repressive, arrogant, racists, liberals. We value who they are, and who they will become…not for their votes, and not to expand our bureaucratic power. Our (Conservative) power comes from freedom and education.
Esquire call Steele a lawn jockey, after next week Cardin will be lucky if Steele hires him to cut his lawn. Despicable Liberals.

right2bright on November 3, 2006 at 2:41 PM

Is it just me or a trick of the eye or does the bar for Steele look just barely shorter than the bar for Cardin on that screen shot?

Conspiracy!!

NTWR on November 3, 2006 at 2:47 PM

I read somewhere…on RealClearPolitics, I think…of a theory that many blacks may not tell a pollster they would vote for a Republican…kind of like a reverse of whites telling pollster they would vote for a black candidate, but not actually do it.

Interesting.

SouthernGent on November 3, 2006 at 3:27 PM

I’m voting for Steele. But, sadly, election results will likely not be available on Tuesday night. Something like 80,000 absentee ballots have been requested in Maryland.

Melba Toast on November 3, 2006 at 3:57 PM

tommy1-
It’s either the effect of rounding or a late Democratic ‘Get out the Vote” effort among the Post-Metabolic community.

right ascension on November 4, 2006 at 1:09 PM


You must be logged in to post a comment.