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New poll: Liebs leads Freshmaker by 12

posted at 2:20 pm on November 3, 2006 by Allahpundit
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How many video clips of victory speeches am I going to have to post on Tuesday night? Very possibly just one.

But it. will. be. awesome.

Joementum got heckled at a bar yesterday, in case you didn’t hear — by a bunch of Lyndon LaRouche supporters:

Lieberman entered the bar about 7 p.m., just as the debate between Lamont and Schlesinger started playing on one of the large television screens. As he walked in, with a close-up of Lamont’s head looming over the room, a LaRouche supporter, disguised in a wig and make-up as conservative columnist William F. Buckley, began yelling and throwing green “Buckley Bucks.”

Soon, the singing began.

“If you want a third world war, vote for Joe, Bill Buckley’s whore,” the LaRouche supporters sang.

Then came a bit about impeaching Vice President Dick Cheney and about Lieberman, or Cheney – it was hard to decipher which – being something unprintable.

They call themselves, I kid you not, the “LaRouche Youth.”

So how many clips am I going to have to post? Rasmussen has it 49-48 for the Dems with Missouri, Virginia, and Tennessee the toss-ups. RCP puts McCaskill’s lead at less than 2% and Webb’s lead at less than 1%, but the last three polls have Corker pulling away from Ford. If that holds we need either Talent or Allen to come through — unless Michael Steele continues to surge and shocks the world in Maryland. If he does, then we can probably do no worse than 50-50. And that 50 won’t include Linc Chafee, who’s on his way out in Rhode Island.

Larry Sabato and Stuart Rothenberg predict the Dems will take both chambers. Tradesports has given up on Republican control of the House, but control of the Senate is still trading at a healthy 68.9.

And even if we do lose both, like Moran says — how bad could it be?

Update: Bill Buckley is indeed supporting Joe Lieberman:

The features of the Democratic leadership are not yet set. The left is eager to assert itself as the true heir of the Democratic tradition, even as in 1948, under the leadership of Henry Wallace, the left attempted to take over the party of FDR and Harry Truman. It failed, and may fail again. But much depends on how much life there is in the opposition, and the first challenge is to vote to retain Joe Lieberman in office.

Update: No matter how you feel about Santorum, this is touching:

A month ago Mr. Santorum and his wife were in the car driving to Washington for the debate with his opponent on “Meet the Press.” Their conversation turned to how brutal the campaign was, how hurt they’d both felt at all the attacks. Karen Santorum said it must be the same for Bob Casey and his family; they must be suffering. Rick Santorum said yes, it’s hard for them too. Then he said, “Let’s say a Rosary for them.” So they prayed for the Caseys as they hurtled south.

A friend of mine called them while they were praying. She told me about it later, but didn’t want it repeated. “No one would believe it,” she said.

But I asked Mr. Santorum about it. Sure, he said, surprised at my surprise. “We pray for the Caseys every night. We know it’s as hard for them as it is for us.”


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Oh,the next four days will be priceless.

bbz123 on November 3, 2006 at 2:30 PM

I some lefties don’t see that picture. Otherwise they’ll out Bush and Lieberman.

JammieWearingFool on November 3, 2006 at 2:30 PM

BTW AP, stay confident. Talent, Burns, Allen, Corker, and Steele are all going to win.

Larry Sabato’s hairpiece will file for divorce Wednesday morning.

JammieWearingFool on November 3, 2006 at 2:32 PM

But I asked Mr. Santorum about it. Sure, he said, surprised at my surprise. “We pray for the Caseys every night. We know it’s as hard for them as it is for us.”

I wonder what Dan Savage makes of this. I wonder who or what he prays for at night.

EFG on November 3, 2006 at 2:36 PM

Look to Talent to pull out a victory. The race is so close that even the smallest drag on votes for one candidate will put the other over the top. McCaskill thought that tying herself to Michael J. Fox would help her take advantage of Amendment 2’s polling edge. She looked at the polls and thought she had some easy pickings. But she forgot to look at the trend. While Amendment 2 is still favored to pass, all the momentum has been against it over the last two and a half weeks. The pro-life organizations, the Catholic Church and other religious organizations have generated a considerable grassroots pushback on Amendment 2. Heck, my pastor has preached on it 2 weeks in a row and, if that is a leading indicator, that means the anti-Amendment 2 message has been pounded home to around 1 in 7 Missourians each of the last 2 Sundays. That doesn’t even include the Catholics (can you guess my denomination?). So what does this have to do with McCaskill? While Amendment 2 still may survive, it is possible that the late — and considerable — momentum against Amendment 2 will pull out the few McCaskill votes into Talent’s column that are needed to leave her unemployed.

Tongueboy on November 3, 2006 at 2:38 PM

How many video clips of victory speeches am I going to have to post on Tuesday night?

Lots. Lots & lots.

Bugler on November 3, 2006 at 2:42 PM

And even if their wrong, like Moran says — how bad could it be?

Last time the US cut and run in masses from a theater of war it meant millions of boat people and unidentified corpses.

Just saying.

Niko on November 3, 2006 at 2:50 PM

I sure wish Joe would do that whole Jumpin’Jim Jeffords thing WHEN he is elected…pay back all those Dems who were throwing him under the bus …and after he gave all that GRAVITAS to that sot, Gore.

seejanemom on November 3, 2006 at 2:50 PM

I say it ends up 50/50 with either Allen or Talent coming through in the end to save your asses. I hope it’s Talent, I mean if Allen would have locked himself in his room for the past 6 months he would have won this race by 10 points.

JaHerer22 on November 3, 2006 at 2:50 PM

Just have to point out that Chafee wouldn’t be out if he weren’t so pro-illegal alien.
Sure Susan Estrogen would say, in her Jack Daniels and Palmal scratchy voice, that it’s about the war, but no, it’s immigration-stupid!

NTWR on November 3, 2006 at 2:52 PM

Evil genius Rove, are you paying attention? Time to release Osama from that secret lockdown.

John on November 3, 2006 at 2:54 PM

Geeezzzzzz……if 06 is this bad I’m gonna need a friggin truck load of valium for 08.

Maybe I’ll just go fishing…yeah…that’s it….gut some poor fish…that’ll calm me down.

Limerick on November 3, 2006 at 2:58 PM

I sure wish Joe would do that whole Jumpin’Jim Jeffords thing WHEN he is elected…pay back all those Dems who were throwing him under the bus …and after he gave all that GRAVITAS to that sot, Gore.

He won’t. In fact, I’d be willing to bet that when he wins, he’ll re-enlist as a Democrat. This may not be an entirely bad thing, if he can manage to shame some of the more outre elements of the party into seeing how a gentleman behaves. (Assuming those elements are not too far beyond shame, that is.)

Farmer_Joe on November 3, 2006 at 3:02 PM

Joe has already said he will vote with the Democrat Caucus. The only positives are that he is supportive of the war, and Lamont loses. It will be fun to see the nutroots pushed a little closer to the asylum.

jeffNWV on November 3, 2006 at 3:09 PM

(Assuming those elements are not too far beyond shame, that is.)

Farmer_Joe on November 3, 2006 at 3:02 PM

That’s a pretty iffy assumption. I wouldn’t bet on it.

thirteen28 on November 3, 2006 at 3:13 PM

Well. I can hope, can’t I?

seejanemom on November 3, 2006 at 3:17 PM

That’s a pretty iffy assumption. I wouldn’t bet on it.

Yeah, let’s just say it’s not a MAJOR part of my retirement plan.

Farmer_Joe on November 3, 2006 at 3:25 PM

I’ve been curious about polls and their collective effect on elections. What I’ve noticed the last 20 years or so is that the polls consistently under-predict the Republican votes, except for cases where the Republican had a huge lead or a large deficit. TKS pointed out some stark differences between the pre-election day polls and the actual results the last few years and it makes me come to these conclusions:

1) If a Republican is within a point or two in a red or purple state going into election day, that candidate will probably win about 2 out of 3 times. Which leads me to my next two points

2) Allen will likely squeak out a victory next week, but will never win the presidential nomination for the GOP

3) Talent will win

And let’s throw Steele’s name into the mix. A solidly blue state that appears to be up for grabs. Which gives the Republicans a small majority in the Senate. Good thing, because I see the House as a goner, albeit a much smaller margin than the pundits are predicting. Give the Dems around 219 seats.

I know that Sabato has a reputation as being non-partisan, but I live in Virginia and think that he tilts leftward in both his opinions and predictions. My opinion, of course, but we’ll see how everything pans out come Wednesday morning.

One final note: not that the GOP deserves to win(they don’t), but I’d love to see the Democrats not win the House on Tuesday, simply because the meltdown of the Kos kids will make my week.

Physics Geek on November 3, 2006 at 3:30 PM

simply because the meltdown of the Kos kids will make my week

Week? How about year?

Rich on November 3, 2006 at 3:40 PM

Hey Rick, have you been praying for Casey to get your job? Because if you have, THEN I’M READY TO BELIEVE AGAIN.

Ahem.

Enrique on November 3, 2006 at 3:44 PM

We may lose the House and the Senate?
Bring Kerry back, find Nancy, where is Reid when we need him?

right2bright on November 3, 2006 at 3:46 PM

No class Enrique.

Natrium on November 3, 2006 at 3:59 PM

Just have to point out that Chafee wouldn’t be out if he weren’t so pro-illegal alien.
Sure Susan Estrogen would say, in her Jack Daniels and Palmal scratchy voice, that it’s about the war, but no, it’s immigration-stupid!

No, it’s about the war. It’s about Bush. I wish it wasn’t, but it is.

Remember, Rhode Island keeps sending Patrick Kennedy to Washington. It really is that bad.

Pablo on November 3, 2006 at 4:08 PM

Larry Sabato’s hairpiece will file for divorce Wednesday morning.

…that’s not a hairpiece…it’s one long strand cleverly knitted into a yarmulke. The workmanship is splendid, I hear, it’s just that he doesn’t wear it properly.

…maybe a chinstrap….

Puritan1648 on November 3, 2006 at 4:19 PM

51-49 in the Senate (R)
and we retain the House by 1

LordNazh on November 3, 2006 at 4:48 PM

Last time the US cut and run in masses from a theater of war it meant millions of boat people and unidentified corpses.

Just saying.

Niko on November 3, 2006 at 2:50 PM

Not to worry Niko – so long as Mr. Bush is President, there will be no “cut and run”.

Pablo, I’m with you – it is about the war and terrorism. Precisely because of that, I’m hopeful about Tuesday. In spite of all the news and twists/turns they and the foreign (mal)factions are pulling, the American electorate is not as stupid as assumed and it definitely is not suicidal. I know I read like a broken record – it can’t be said enough. The bads are going to be dismayed on Wednesday.

AP, get ready to post lots of acceptance speeches, from this side. Steele, for sure, and this is going to rock the Libs, with long-term consequences.

Entelechy on November 3, 2006 at 4:48 PM

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