Poll: Dems lead in enough races to take Senate

posted at 10:37 am on November 2, 2006 by Allahpundit

That’s the bad news. The good news? It’s Zogby. Given his track record, I’m thinking we might just widen our majority.

Harold Ford could be in trouble too, but I wouldn’t call this “good news.” And not just because it bodes ill for Michael Steele, either.

Whatever happens, there’ll be plenty of schadenfreude on both sides.

Rather than round up the polls to show you how ominous things look for the GOP, just watch this. Madrid is either an abject idiot or one of the worst public speakers ever to enter American politics — and GOP incumbent Heather Wilson’s trailing her in all the latest polls. Bad moon rising, ladies and gents.

Update: So sweet. So achingly sweet…

The apparent end of the much-ballyhooed Lamont phenomenon is causing a great deal of soul-searching and recrimination in all corners of the Democratic Party. The bloggers that once championed Mr. Lamont as an awkward but earnest savior now alternately blame Washington’s strategists for hijacking their candidate and Democratic leaders for abandoning him. Beltway consultants fault the Lamont campaign for failing to move the candidate beyond his left-wing celebrity and define him for a greater electorate.

Update: Hmmmm.


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ouch!

DarianCounts on November 2, 2006 at 10:41 AM

Harold Ford could be in trouble too, but I wouldn’t call this “good news.” And not just because it bodes ill for Michael Steele, either.

Here in Maryland, we’ve been told Michael Steele isn’t really black, so what ill could it bode?

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on November 2, 2006 at 10:44 AM

Reuters-Zogby….that says it all. It was a PhotoShop poll….

Madrid is an idiot…she was up 9 yesterday…. (can you imagine this woman sitting in a chair in congress trying to figure out what is going on?)….if NM-1 voters are that stupid they all need to be on the next “Jaywalking” with Leno.

Limerick on November 2, 2006 at 10:46 AM

Casey is clearly the worst debater I have heard this year.

Benny on November 2, 2006 at 10:48 AM

Hey, give her credit. Madrid is honest, she can be bought and she admits it. At $125,000 she is a high priced hooker, another plus for her negotiating skills.
Time to pull out the big guns Wilson, you are running against someone that admits to being bought, c’mon take her down.

right2bright on November 2, 2006 at 10:55 AM

I. Am. Sofa. King. Sick. Of. Worthless. Polls.

thirteen28 on November 2, 2006 at 10:57 AM

Aww… I kinda wanted to keep the Senate.

Still, the more the Democrats control, the more material to make fun of them with. That’s what I like to keep focused on.

frankj on November 2, 2006 at 10:58 AM

How much does it cost to talk to Murtha, Pelosi, or Boxer?

infidel on November 2, 2006 at 11:00 AM

Hehe, it’s hard to pick which clip of this debate was worse. The one where she buries herself or the one where she acts like she dropped the shovel on her head.

Benaiah on November 2, 2006 at 11:00 AM

Madrid is an idiot…she was up 9 yesterday…. (can you imagine this woman sitting in a chair in congress trying to figure out what is going on?)….if NM-1 voters are that stupid they all need to be on the next “Jaywalking” with Leno.

Unfortunately, voters of NM have elected her before, as a judge in 1978, and as AG in 1998.

jeffNWV on November 2, 2006 at 11:05 AM

And not just because it bodes ill for Michael Steele, either.

That only applies to Dems. It’s ok to trash a black Republican, especially in Maryland.

No, it’s the black voters that are going to decide that race, not the white ones.

As for Madrid, if the electorate sends that POS to DC, they should have their voting privileges revoked on account of gross stupidity.

Pablo on November 2, 2006 at 11:08 AM

Can you say GEEEEEE Haaaaaaaaaddddd!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sonnyspats1 on November 2, 2006 at 11:09 AM

sonny that was great….we need to dub that right over Slims voice as he drops outta the bomb-bay!!!!!!!

Limerick on November 2, 2006 at 11:11 AM

In the article “Is Ford’s White Support For Real?”. you’ve gotta love the gigantic Mark White ad.

DaveS on November 2, 2006 at 11:12 AM

Start picking out your curtains Nance…you just get real, real comfortable behind buying those curtains.

seejanemom on November 2, 2006 at 11:13 AM

The Democratic Party is the party of Ideas Excuses.

Isn’t it obvious yet?

Lawrence on November 2, 2006 at 11:25 AM

I’d rather keep the house and lose the senate based on their views on illegal immigration. The senate can go pound sand. The house on the other hand, is the only advocate the anti illegal alien constituency has.

voiceofreason on November 2, 2006 at 11:27 AM

As much as the media would like it to be otherwise….

By the time the smoke clears, the Reps will keep both the House and the Senate…

Look for a big Republican turnout….

Romeo13 on November 2, 2006 at 11:37 AM

Lamont who?

OH! You mean the Mentos guy, right?

I loved that dude. Where’d he go anyway?

Professor Blather on November 2, 2006 at 11:37 AM

After watching both Madrid videos, I gotta say the person she most reminds me of is Chris Farely from SNL. Chris Farley? Yup. Chris Farley the stammering idiot interviewer.

The Chris Farley Show
…..Chris Farley
…..Paul McCartney

Chris Farley: Um, hi. Welcome to The Chris Farley Show. I’m.. Chris Farley.. and, my guest tonight is.. one of the.. greatest musicians.. uh, rock musicians. I guess, songwriter, ever. [ Smacks himself ] GOD! That sounds stupid! God, I’m an idiot! I never know how to start these things!

Paul McCartney: You’re doing great, Chris.

Chris Farley
: [ hopeful ] Really? No, I’m not. [ hyperventilating ] Anyway.. I guess.. I didn’t have, have to say, who you were, because.. man, I mean.. everyone knows who you are. Mmm.. you’re Paul McCartney.

Paul McCartney: Well, it’s great to be here.

Chris Farley: [ uncomfortable ] You.. you.. you remember when you were with The Beatles?

Paul McCartney
: Yeah, sure.

Chris Farley: That was awesome!

Paul McCartney: Yeah, it was.

Chris Farley: O-kay.. Oh! You.. you remember when you went to Japan.. and, uh, and at the airport they arrested you ’cause you had some pot, and.. it made all the papers, and everything..?

Paul McCartney: Well, to be honest, Chris, I’d kind of like to forget all of that.

Chris Farley: [ smacks himself harder ] IDIOT!! That’s so stupid! What a dumb question!!

Paul McCartney: No, no, no, Chris. I get asked that all the time in interviews. Maria Shriver asked the same question last week.

Chris Farley: Really? [ pause ] Did you know that she’s married to Arnold Schwartzenegger?

Paul McCartney: Yeah. I’ve heard that.

Chris Farley: Did you see “Terminator”?

Paul McCartney: No, I missed that one.

Chris Farley: That was a pretty awesome flick. [ pause ] O-kay.. remember.. you remember when you were with The Beatles, and you were supposed to be dead, and, uh, there was all these clues, that, like, uh, you played some song backwards, and it’d say, like, “Paul Is Dead”, and, uh, everyone thought that you were dead? That was, um, a hoax, right?

Paul McCartney: Yeah. I wasn’t really dead.

Chris Farley: Right. I think we.. I think we got time for one more question. Uh.. remember when you were in The Beatles? And, um, you did that album Abbey Road, and at the very end of the song, it would.. the song goes, “And in the end, the love you take is equal to the love you make”? You.. you remember that?

Paul McCartney: Yes.

Chris Farley: Uh.. is that true?

Paul McCartney: Yes, Chris. In my experience, it is. I find, the more you give, the more you get.

Chris Farley [ ecstatic, starts to point at Paul and mouth "AWESOME!" ] Well, that’s it for this week’s show. Thank you, Paul McCartney, thank you, for being one of the greatest.. of rock.. I mean, a living legend. And uh, a legend of rock and roll.. and.. just thanks for being on the show, and.. [ smacks himself even harder ] GOD DANGIT! That sounded stupid! I knew I’d screw up!

Paul McCartney: You did fine, you did fine, Chris.

Chris Farley: Really? Thanks, man. Thanks. Thank you. [ Outro music comes on, Chris continues to talk to Paul ] Remember.. remember when I was talking to you about “The Terminator”? You.. you should see that movie, it’s pretty cool..

EFG on November 2, 2006 at 11:39 AM

Wow. Just wow. I don’t see how anyone who has seen Madrid get trounced in these debates could vote for her.

p0s3r on November 2, 2006 at 11:40 AM

By the time the smoke clears, the Reps will keep both the House and the Senate…

Look for a big Republican turnout….

I’m starting to think you may be right. Despite the polls, I now suspect that the very best the Democrats can hope for is a mild disappointment. And it may not be too mild!

Frankly, I see the whole thing as a win/win. If they get power back, they’ll actually have to *DO* things. Take responsibility. That kinda stuff.

And that’ll be funny. What exactly would happen to the left side of the blogosphere if they actually had Congress and (eventually) the White House? What would they bitch about?

Whatever happens – it’s going to be fun to watch. As long as the libs don’t get us all nuked, of course. Or destroy the economy. Or make the immigration problem worse. Or make spending worse. Or raise taxes.

Okay, come to think of it, maybe we ought to just win?

Professor Blather on November 2, 2006 at 11:41 AM

EFG:

:)

Chris Farley! Nailed it in one. That’s perfect!

Professor Blather on November 2, 2006 at 11:42 AM

Funniest line in the Lamont story:

“I think it was possible for Lamont to pull it off,” said Bob Shrum, a veteran political analyst. “There were moments right after the primary where it was basically a tied race.”

Bob Shrum? Bwa ha ha ha. When Bob Shrum tells you you might win – you’re screwed.

Professor Blather on November 2, 2006 at 11:52 AM

The democ-rats are not going to win either the House or the Senate. It’s just not gonna happen.

P.S. I love thirteen28′s posts!

RushBaby on November 2, 2006 at 11:56 AM

Wow, she is embarassing. Far from the worst debater I have seen this election cycle though. Check out this clip of Conrad Burns discussing Bush’s supersecret plan for victory in Iraq that is apparently so supersecret Bush doesn’t even know about it yet.

And is he too obilivious to realize the audience is laughing at him? God help us…

JaHerer22 on November 2, 2006 at 12:10 PM

Recent poll suggests recent polls are no more accurate than polls that are not recent.

fogw on November 2, 2006 at 12:16 PM

Is see Drunk?

kara26 on November 2, 2006 at 12:16 PM

Funniest line in the Lamont story:

“I think it was possible for Lamont to pull it off,” said Bob Shrum, a veteran political analyst. “There were moments right after the primary where it was basically a tied race.”

This is an old photo comic about Lamont, from about that time, so it’s not link-whoring, right? But you can never pile on enough.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on November 2, 2006 at 12:16 PM

Wow. An honest Democrat. Well, she has my vote. Not.

.

GT on November 2, 2006 at 12:22 PM

Brutal! And I didn’t think the tax question from a few days ago could get worse. That democrat is a train wreck!

Isn’t it hard to complain about Zogby poll accuracies in the first sentence of this blog; then point to a Reuters/Zogby poll at the end to point to Corker being up by 10? Either they are accurate or they are not.

lorien1973 on November 2, 2006 at 12:29 PM

Allah what does the Bradley effect have to do with Steele? Steele is a Republican. A Republican that Maryland voters already elected as Leiutenant Governor. Now that he has the backing of Black Democrats in Prince George’s County the ripple effect will move throuhout Black voters. I will reserve my predictions. I will say that all things are pointing towards a Steele victory.

Theworldisnotenough on November 2, 2006 at 12:32 PM

Isn’t it hard to complain about Zogby poll accuracies in the first sentence of this blog; then point to a Reuters/Zogby poll at the end to point to Corker being up by 10? Either they are accurate or they are not.

They’re bunk. Perhaps they’ve changed their strategy from “we need to tip the polls to Dem advantages to discourage Reps to vote” to, “Oh crap! That strategy totally backfired on us and now Rep turnout is gangbusters. We must show Reps WAY up in the polls to discourage them from voting.”

Editor on November 2, 2006 at 12:33 PM

Isn’t it hard to complain about Zogby poll accuracies in the first sentence of this blog; then point to a Reuters/Zogby poll at the end to point to Corker being up by 10?

That’s why I said “hmmmm” instead of “yay!”

Allahpundit on November 2, 2006 at 12:34 PM

Burned baby, burned! Get Madrid some sunscreen and some painkillers, ’cause she’s been seriously burned!

What amazes me is that so many people are willing to vote for such idiots in spite of such obvious stupidity.

EWTHeckman on November 2, 2006 at 12:35 PM

How much does it cost to talk to Murtha, Pelosi, or Boxer?

If you have to ask…

There are many more than two Wilson/Madrid debate videos up on youtube, these are just the most priceless among them. Madrid is a complete bufoon. How can someone with such bad stage fright (giving her a momentary benefit of the doubt) be the state’s Attorney General? Her political career started as a district court judge, don’t you have to have a law degree to get those kinds of jobs? And what law school let her graduate?

My daughter could debate better than that, and she hasn’t been to law school. Or, well, maybe that would be why she could debate better, I don’t really know anymore.

Freelancer on November 2, 2006 at 12:39 PM

Zogby is a liberal, as are many of the pollsters. They also run a business. The polls up to now have been attempting a bandwagon effect. Now the races are “tightening up,” according to Zogby and are within the margin of error for key senate races. This is because Zogby knows that he can’t be too far off if he wants to maintain a credible business.

If you look at the results for the 2004, Rasmussen underestimated voter turnout on about an average of 4% from the polls. If all the key races are within the margin of error for Zogby, Republicans have a good shot at doing really well this election.

Hence panic in the MSM and among Democrats. They must keep us from the polls or trick voters into thinking Democrats are suddenly “conservative.” Anything to suppress turnout.

Get a load of this MSM gem in the headlines of Yahoo. We are supposed to believe Dems are suddenly religious because they say they “love Jesus,” but the article doesn’t mention anything about abortion. Dems think religious conservatives are as dumb as Kerry thinks the military is:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061102/pl_nm/usa_elections_faith_dc

januarius on November 2, 2006 at 1:19 PM

I was laughing this morning when I was listening to the news on the radio, the announcer referring to “a poll” which showed “democrats leading in six key states.” That was it: no identification of who conducted the poll, no identification of which six states, no identification of margins, just “donkey party winning in six key states.”

Looking at how the media has worked so hard to carry the donks across the finish line this year, despite their lack of any plans, any answers, any ideas – only the hope that the Republican base will lose their nerve and fold – I’m reminded of a scene from, “Cool Hand Luke:”

“Nuthin’! A handfull of nuthin’! You stupid mullet-head. He beat you with nuthin’!”

LUKE (smiling): “Nuthin’ can be a pretty cool hand.”

But it the donks’ poker-bluff strategy doesn’t play out as they and their media shills hope it will, I have a suspicion that they’re going to be in for a rude surprise on Tuesday night.

Not just because the Republican base may very well be much more motivated than they’d like to think, but also because a lot of the independents who are leaning donkey in the polls aren’t going to show up in the polling booths, for two reasons:

1. This is a mid-term election, and turnout isn’t as heavy as it would be during a presidential election year; and

2. Although people may be frustrated with the job the Republicans are doing, they’re not going to flock to the polls to cast a vote for the donk whose whole platform consists of, “Vote for me – I hate him!”

Contrary to what the media would like to have happen, I don’t see the Republican base sitting out this election in disgust, but the independents instead. They may not like what they see from the Republicans, but aren’t likely to be impressed with the donks’ “Cool Hand Luke” election gambit, either. And if that’s the case, then its advantage: Republicans.

Spurius Ligustinus on November 2, 2006 at 1:24 PM

At least, if we lose, we won’t start screaming and crying about stolen elections and then go running to a bucnh of shrinks because we feel so bad, like the pathetic liberal bastards did.

JackM on November 2, 2006 at 1:34 PM

Yawn.

The only poll that counts is the one next week Tuesday.

The rest is all bullshit.

georgej on November 2, 2006 at 1:53 PM

I stopped paying attention to polls when I found out how easily you can manipulate them with a changed word or two

Defector01 on November 2, 2006 at 2:01 PM

KOS is sucking on straw (not straws).

I’ve read an article recently that the Lieberman energy from conservatives/independents might help the Reps. too and could enable the Right to keep the House. Now, that would be Schadenfreude!

I predict many surprises for Tuesday night and the week following. Easiest and most meaningless prediction ever – to make the point at how seriously I take the polls.

P.S. I love fogw’s posts!
P.P.S. As señor Villaraigosa, the Mayor of LA says “I love you each, I love you all”.

Entelechy on November 2, 2006 at 2:06 PM

As a native New Mexican I regret to inform you that total unelectability in that state is rarely an impediment to election. Despite a fairly conservative south, the northern part of the state is very liberal, with pockets of Berkeley Class insanity. Santa Fe is practically a colony of San Francisco now. Then there is the massive Hispanic population of the state. Despite many much appreciated exceptions, many Hispanics would vote for the devil if he ran on the Democratic ticket under the name Juan Luciferez.

dostrick on November 2, 2006 at 2:08 PM

Danke schoen fraulein Entelechy (it’s been a lifetime since I studied German, hope that’s right)

fogw on November 2, 2006 at 2:17 PM

Well put dostrick! And don’t forget fans, we get to use PAPER BALLOTS this year! People have already started walking off the polling lines in the early voting because of the wait.

Catseye on November 2, 2006 at 2:55 PM

Isn’t it hard to complain about Zogby poll accuracies in the first sentence of this blog; then point to a Reuters/Zogby poll at the end to point to Corker being up by 10? Either they are accurate or they are not.

I vote not. Regardless of whether they show our guy up or not.

VOTE!!

thirteen28 on November 2, 2006 at 2:58 PM

Yawn.

The only poll that counts is the one next week Tuesday.

The rest is all bullshit.

georgej on November 2, 2006 at 1:53 PM

And I second georgej’s post ast well.

Ignore the polls and VOTE in the only poll that counts!

thirteen28 on November 2, 2006 at 2:59 PM

Reuters-Zogby….that says it all. It was a PhotoShop poll….

…now, there’s a buzz-word that oughta catch on….

Puritan1648 on November 2, 2006 at 3:14 PM

Danke schoen fraulein Entelechy (it’s been a lifetime since I studied German, hope that’s right)

fogw on November 2, 2006 at 2:17 PM

You’re most willkommen fogw. I’m not from Germany, rather from Romania. I’m fascinated by languages and their power. Makes life very, very interesting.

Alas, I’m not a Fräulein; otherwise, I’d marry Pablo, as previously discussed on another thread :)

Now, how does this relate to this thread? fogw, Pablo and I are going to vote on Tuesday and we’re all going to experience what s/b un-permissible Schadenfreude.

Entelechy on November 2, 2006 at 3:14 PM

Ah, wistful longing, my constant companion…

Schadenfreude will be small comfort. But what the hell, I’ll take what I can get. Life is short.

Pablo on November 2, 2006 at 9:31 PM

At least, if we lose, we won’t start screaming and crying about stolen elections and then go running to a bucnh of shrinks because we feel so bad, like the pathetic liberal bastards did.

JackM on November 2, 2006 at 1:34 PM

Preach on, brother!. In the event of a defeat, Republicans suck it up and go on; modern Democrats of the nutroot variety sue. Lawsuits would be a major pain in the neck. However, the wailing, hair-pulling hissy fits the DU and KOS types would throw would be most amusing.

p.v. cornelius on November 2, 2006 at 9:56 PM

Alas, I’m not a Fräulein; otherwise, I’d marry Pablo, as previously discussed on another thread :)

Entelechy on November 2, 2006 at 3:14 PM

Damn! Now I’m jealous. :-)

p.v. cornelius on November 2, 2006 at 9:58 PM