I’m scrambling on Kerry stuff but I want to get an election post up. Updates are coming below, but first savor a bit of good news. Not great news — the race is still within the margin of error among registered voters, as are the races in New Jersey, Missouri, and Virginia — but an eight-point difference among likelies is a nice little pillow. Dan Riehl also crunched the numbers on a Survey USA poll that had Corker and Ford in a dead heat and found Democrats heavily oversampled. Riehl figures it’s probably a four or five point lead for Corker at this point.

The GOP is claiming excellent GOTV results thus far in early voting, but does that really tell us anything? Quote:

In the fiercely contested New Mexico district held by Republican Heather Wilson, the party says that the number of absentee ballots already requested by Republicans has almost reached the number requested in 2004 — nearly 22,000 so far this year, compared with almost 24,000 in 2004. The party says it is on a pace to exceed 2004.

Republicans were motivated in ’04, though. This year it could be a case of diehards voting early en masse with much lower turnout on Election Day.

As I say, updates coming.

Update: The latest poll in New Jersey was conducted from October 26th through the 29th. The gay-marriage decision, which I predicted would have little impact, was handed down the day before. I pronounce myself vindicated.

Speaking of which, is Bush a cross-dresser?

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Update: Further cocooning at the Times.

Update: My favorite story of the day: Democrats find out the hard way what a pain in the ass Murtha is.

Update: Which conservative blogger is really singlehandedly to blame for George Allen trailing in the polls: Michelle Malkin or Dean Barnett?