Poll: Corker leads Ford by eight among likely voters

posted at 2:22 pm on October 31, 2006 by Allahpundit

I’m scrambling on Kerry stuff but I want to get an election post up. Updates are coming below, but first savor a bit of good news. Not great news — the race is still within the margin of error among registered voters, as are the races in New Jersey, Missouri, and Virginia — but an eight-point difference among likelies is a nice little pillow. Dan Riehl also crunched the numbers on a Survey USA poll that had Corker and Ford in a dead heat and found Democrats heavily oversampled. Riehl figures it’s probably a four or five point lead for Corker at this point.

The GOP is claiming excellent GOTV results thus far in early voting, but does that really tell us anything? Quote:

In the fiercely contested New Mexico district held by Republican Heather Wilson, the party says that the number of absentee ballots already requested by Republicans has almost reached the number requested in 2004 — nearly 22,000 so far this year, compared with almost 24,000 in 2004. The party says it is on a pace to exceed 2004.

Republicans were motivated in ’04, though. This year it could be a case of diehards voting early en masse with much lower turnout on Election Day.

As I say, updates coming.

Update: The latest poll in New Jersey was conducted from October 26th through the 29th. The gay-marriage decision, which I predicted would have little impact, was handed down the day before. I pronounce myself vindicated.

Speaking of which, is Bush a cross-dresser?

skirt.png

Update: Further cocooning at the Times.

Update: My favorite story of the day: Democrats find out the hard way what a pain in the ass Murtha is.

Update: Which conservative blogger is really singlehandedly to blame for George Allen trailing in the polls: Michelle Malkin or Dean Barnett?


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Three cheers for supposed racism

Defector01 on October 31, 2006 at 2:25 PM

Woohoo!
Go Corker! Go Talent! Go Kean! Go Allen!

Let’s win another one for the Gipper!

Jen the Neocon on October 31, 2006 at 2:26 PM

Harold, call me.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on October 31, 2006 at 2:28 PM

Excellent news!

I wish I knew Corker’s daughter (and her friend) when I was being edumacated in Tennessee.

She seems like a really nice girl.

And her friend too.

BIG ORANGE COUNTRY!

natesnake on October 31, 2006 at 2:29 PM

Ya know, I’m glad if this poll showing Corker leading is accurate, but to the Republicans reading this ….

IGNORE THE F’ING POLLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Regardless of whether they say our guy is in the lead or not – just get out there and vote and get every other Republican out there to vote).

thirteen28 on October 31, 2006 at 2:30 PM

thirteen28 is right. Vote ASAP. I casted my ballot the first day the poles opened. I may have thrown away a vote for John Raese, but Robert KKK Byrd will never get a green light from me.

natesnake on October 31, 2006 at 2:40 PM

Finally, a real, TRUE, accurate poll for me to live and die by!

Just kidding. I still don’t put weight on polls, even when they favor my opinion.

NTWR on October 31, 2006 at 2:52 PM

Speaking of which, is Bush a cross-dresser?

Hot.

Slublog on October 31, 2006 at 2:54 PM

Polls are polls…and thirteen28 said it best…just go vote and drive as many Republicans to the polls as you need to!

SouthernGent on October 31, 2006 at 2:54 PM

It was the lesbo pix, right?

EF on October 31, 2006 at 2:56 PM

It was the lesbo pix, right?

Yup.

Hot.

Indeed.

natesnake on October 31, 2006 at 3:07 PM

/snark
That poll is RACIST!!!

Now where the white girls at?
/snark off

The MSM has been trying to call elections for the Dems before the polls closed for years. Now they’re trying to call them before they open, so you’ll just stay home.

Don’t buy any of it.

Pablo on October 31, 2006 at 3:09 PM

The MSM has been trying to call elections for the Dems before the polls closed for years.

Just like 2004′s landslide victory for John Kerry. That’s the beauty of an exit poll. It’s not scientific and can be forced to fit a certain persuasion depending on which precinct the poll is taken.

natesnake on October 31, 2006 at 3:14 PM

Y’all don’t get TOO excited:

Early voting ALWAYS favors the Republicans.

Democrats can’t be bothered to actually make the extra effort and planning to vote early or absentee… They gotta wait until the bus from the DNC picks them up, they get their pack of cigarettes and bottle of ‘Mad Dog’ from the handlers and led by the hand to the booth and told which buttons to push.

LegendHasIt on October 31, 2006 at 3:27 PM

Ya know, I’m glad if this poll showing Corker leading is accurate, but to the Republicans reading this ….

IGNORE THE F’ING POLLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(Regardless of whether they say our guy is in the lead or not – just get out there and vote and get every other Republican out there to vote).

That’s right!! Because if you don’t vote, then it’ll be your fault Harold Jr. steals all of our white women!!

BigOrangeAxe on October 31, 2006 at 3:50 PM

If Ford loses..do you think Chrissy Matthews will cry?..or just go running into the arms of his other love Obama and start pushing harder to get this guy president in ’08?

mlong on October 31, 2006 at 3:52 PM

Just like 2004’s landslide victory for John Kerry. That’s the beauty of an exit poll. It’s not scientific and can be forced to fit a certain persuasion depending on which precinct the poll is taken.

natesnake on October 31, 2006 at 3:14 PM

Absolutely. Conservatives should just have the MO that the MSM is guilty of lying or slanting the news to their biases until proven innocent.

You just know on election night there will be more “exit polls” showing a massive dem wave washing over the nation, just like in ’04. Don’t fall for it. Don’t believe anything they report until the votes are counted.

This applies especailly to Republicans on the west coast, because it is a virtual certainty that the MSM is going to try to discourage you on election night in order to depress Republican turnout. DON’T BELIEVE ANYTHING THEY SAY … AND GO VOTE!!!

thirteen28 on October 31, 2006 at 3:58 PM

Another interesting idea that skews pre-election poll results happens when so-called “independent” pollsters contact conservatives and many of them simply refuse to participate (I’m one of them). There’s only one pre-election poll I participate in. If I’m polled by the campaign committee of a candidate I support, I will tell them that I plan to vote for their candidate.

I think those who have a well-placed skepticism with pre-election polling and exit-polling should all just agree to never participate. Let libs participate and skew the results by ever-greater margins so that on election day, when their candidate loses despite being 10 points ahead in the polls, we can hear the happy sounds of our lib friends as they blame Diebold, Rove, law enforcement, etc.

Do we have a deal?

CliffHanger on October 31, 2006 at 4:35 PM

That good news about the Tennessee election poll makes me feel relieved. When I saw the poll numbers for Allen that AP put up yesterday, I almost panicked.

I did notice yesterday that Rasmussen consistently underpolls Republicans, if the 2004 results are any indication:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/State%20by%20state%20comparisons%202004.htm

They claim to be the most accurate and scientific of all the polls.

It is extremely frustrating (but now transparent to almost everybody) that the media with polls and news has attempted to prevent Republican turnout. For example, if you go to Yahoo, their AP and Reuters headlines for the past couple of months have had negative story after negative story to influence Republicans not to turn out.

januarius on October 31, 2006 at 4:36 PM

It is extremely frustrating (but now transparent to almost everybody) that the media with polls and news has attempted to prevent Republican turnout.

Except that Republicans don’t cut and run. Negative news and discouraging polls should do nothing but motivate us.

CliffHanger on October 31, 2006 at 4:41 PM

Don’t worry too much about California. The libs have given us several tax-hike propositions to vote against, ensuring high conservative turnout. And unlike Prop 187, there’s no Gray Davis to get the people’s voice swept under the rug and ignored.

I just wish the Republicans could come up with a viable candidate like Michael Steele to oppose either Boxer or Feinstein. Hey Maryland, if you don’t elect him, can we have him?

Freelancer on October 31, 2006 at 4:44 PM

These polls and prediction of easy victory may bite the Dems in the @$$. What if their base is a no-show because they believe it’s already in the bag?

conservativecaveman on October 31, 2006 at 4:52 PM

The MSM has been trying to call elections for the Dems before the polls closed for years.

…I understand that CBS is going to start calling the 2008 presidential do on Nov. 8th…this year…to save time…..

You can’t have a proper election if you *ALL* these peasants vote.

Puritan1648 on October 31, 2006 at 5:15 PM

I may have thrown away a vote for John Raese, but Robert KKK Byrd will never get a green light from me.

natesnake on October 31, 2006 at 2:40 PM

Not so. A vote against Big Daddy is never a throwaway. It’s just the right thing to do.

Hallelujah!

Readymade on October 31, 2006 at 5:17 PM

…that gives me an idea:

A new slogan for the MSM. They like “factoids” and quotable sound bites, don’t they? Got a good slogan for their “depress the vote” polling campaigns:

“Democracy is too important a business to be left to peasants.”
(props to Georges Clemenceau)

Puritan1648 on October 31, 2006 at 5:21 PM

This applies especailly to Republicans on the west coast, because it is a virtual certainty that the MSM is going to try to discourage you on election night in order to depress Republican turnout. DON’T BELIEVE ANYTHING THEY SAY … AND GO VOTE!!!

No doubt ’bout it. The local dem strategist here in Washington State implicity said this weekend on a local political show their strategy for a Darcy Burner victory over Reichert is to pray and hope that things look dismal on the East Coast for Repubs so they are discouraged to go vote. Idiots.

Every single one in my circle of close friends has no hesitation of voting… and NO they are not political junkies. They careless about blogs and whatnot, but they do understand what’s on the line.

Editor on October 31, 2006 at 6:02 PM

Polls, on the other hand, aren’t necessarily public opinion.

First Lady, Laura Bush

Entelechy on October 31, 2006 at 6:29 PM

No doubt ’bout it. The local dem strategist here in Washington State implicity said this weekend on a local political show their strategy for a Darcy Burner victory over Reichert is to pray and hope that things look dismal on the East Coast for Repubs so they are discouraged to go vote. Idiots.

Every single one in my circle of close friends has no hesitation of voting… and NO they are not political junkies. They careless about blogs and whatnot, but they do understand what’s on the line.

Editor on October 31, 2006 at 6:02 PM

Good job to you and your friends. My father lives in Washington state as well and I know he’ll be getting to the polls no matter what, if he hasn’t done so already.

All other Republicans West of the Mississippi, read what Editor wrote above, and don’t believe anything that the MSM tells you about the status of any of the races. Just assume they are lying their assess off to discourage you (which is a safe assumption much of the time), and then get to the polls and cast your vote.

thirteen28 on October 31, 2006 at 6:53 PM

Re: Jack Murtha link…

Democrat unity? What democrat unity?

SouthernGent on October 31, 2006 at 8:22 PM

Talking of polls…where in the hell did they do this poll

lsutiger on October 31, 2006 at 10:25 PM

Volunteer to get out the Vote!!!

sonnyspats1 on November 1, 2006 at 2:28 AM

Take heart, boys and girls! Looks like there’s hope for Republican candidates in Florida and Texas.

I’m sure the anomalies will continue to recur in other states as well, unsurprisingly in favor of the GOP.

Constantine on November 1, 2006 at 8:03 PM