Shock: New Rasmussen poll shows Webb leads Allen by five; Update: Webb by four in CNN poll

posted at 6:59 pm on October 30, 2006 by Allahpundit

The last Rasmussen poll, on October 24th, put Allen up by two.

A seven-point swing. In six days. According to a highly credible pollster who’s had Allen leading all year.

Dare we blame … Smutgate?

[P]ollster Scott Rasmussen was hesitant to attribute the Webb boost to the weekend’s news.

“People always want to say, ‘A happened and therefore B was a result of it or the cause of it or something,’” Rasmussen told Cybercast News Service . “I’m not sure that it’s that clear-cut. I think what we’re seeing is a continuation … of a nationwide trend that’s been tough for the GOP this year.”

Rasmussen said to attribute Allen’s continued slide to the decision to release the book excerpts “might be overstating it a bit.”

Taegan Goddard says control of the Senate will likely turn on three races: Talent vs. McCaskill in Missouri, Corker vs. Ford in Tennessee, and this puppy right here. The Dems need two plus the four they’re likely to win as things currently stand.

It might be panic time.

Update: Republicans and Democrats agree — Allen’s run the sloppiest campaign of 2006.

Update: The Rasmussen poll is no fluke.


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Polls, polls and more polls. Why the effing bloody hell are they continuously being lauded here as something to take serious? Has there been any evidence these polls mean squat?

Editor on October 30, 2006 at 7:05 PM

Allah – STOP WITH THOSE NEGATIVE WAVES.

Highlight why Republicans must win!

Your negative waves will do more damage to Republicans than the Demo – spin on the MSM.

Republicans = dumb
Democrats = dumber
and whenever the Republicans try to claim the title of ‘dumber’ the Democrats will fight to get that title back.

Marvin on October 30, 2006 at 7:10 PM

I call BS on the polls–NO WAY is Webb leading and by 5 points…
He tried to blame his filthy smut on Lynne Cheney!
Rasmussen can kiss my *ss–this is another push poll.

Jen the Neocon on October 30, 2006 at 7:12 PM

Yeah, Allah. Calm down on the polls. Take a couple of deep breaths. There’s nothing definitive yet. For all we know, this could be part of a larger campaign of disinformation from the LEft and you are only propagating it. Relax.

ahem on October 30, 2006 at 7:14 PM

Reminds me of all those exit polls in 04 that had all the Kerry people dancing in Copley Square in the afternoon and crying in their Vodka later that night.

TheBigOldDog on October 30, 2006 at 7:17 PM

Yeah Allah, go find one of your virgins Ace and get that funny feeling in your pants.

Then come back and start digging up shit on Dems and take them down. Its the Chicago way.

Iblis on October 30, 2006 at 7:21 PM

It might be panic time.

It might be. Remember this?

The Dems need two plus the four they’re likely to win as things currently stand.

And if they lose one of those four latter seats, then they need to win four of the three tossups.

If I were Howard Dean and I was looking at Maryland, I’d panic.

Pablo on October 30, 2006 at 7:28 PM

Reminds me of all those exit polls in 04 that had all the Kerry people dancing in Copley Square in the afternoon and crying in their Vodka later that night.

The only difference now is that they are using the pre-election polls to bolster their efforts to a) supress Repub turnout and b) cry “voting conspiracies”.

Editor on October 30, 2006 at 7:34 PM

If Allen loses SW Virgina…say from Danville north to Lynchburg then southwest from there…he’ll lose this race. I don’t see that happening.

If anyone is a premium member of Rasmussen’s site, I’d love to see the crosstabs.

SouthernGent on October 30, 2006 at 7:39 PM

I agree with an earlier analysis that the Dems peaked too early. I don’t see Republicans losing control of both, the House and Senate. Conservatives have done a lot of hand-wringing over the past two months about this election and certianly, with all their blunders, there is cause for concern. I still believe the voting public is smarter than that. Frankly, if the [elected] Dem is actually tough on terrorists I don’t care if they win. I just want politicians who will fight for their country – regardless of party affiliation.

thedecider on October 30, 2006 at 7:55 PM

Rasmussen’s a good poller, he was very accurate in ’04 and this could be a backlash to “smutgate”. On the other hand, Webb used the dems weekly radio address to demand Allen release his divorce papers which is a lot sleazier than “smutgate”. We know the media won’t talk about this, the only place i’ve seen it was Brit Hume’s show, so hopefully Michelle, Allah, and other bloggers will run with it.

Scot on October 30, 2006 at 8:05 PM

Tune in tomorrow, same time, same station, to find out Allen is up by 4 points. Down by 2 on Wed. Up by 1 on Thur. Down by 3 on Friday. Up by 7 on Saturday. Gee, maybe a seven point swing in six days tells you these poll numbers are totally unreliable, or, they demonstrate a +/- error of 3.5%.

Get serious with all of these friggin useless polls.

Just wondering why I have never, ever, been called by a pollster. And if I ever was called I’d lie my ass off anyway just to make the Dems think they were ahead.

fogw on October 30, 2006 at 8:11 PM

Since it’s almost Halloween, we may as well scare up the dead vote.

They lean heavily Democrat.

Among the Journal’s findings:

- There were dead people on the voter rolls in all of New York’s 62 counties and people in as many as 45 counties who had votes recorded after they had died.

- One Bronx address was listed as the home for as many as 191 registered voters who had died. The address is 5901 Palisade Ave., in Riverdale, site of the Hebrew Home for the Aged.

- Democrats who cast votes after they died outnumbered Republicans by more than 4 to 1. The reason: Most of them came from Democrat-dominated New York City, where the higher population produced more matches.

Tales of votes being cast from the grave are part of election lore. Last year, at least two dead voters were counted in a Tennessee state Senate race that was decided by fewer than 20 votes. As a result of that and other irregularities, seven poll workers were fired, an entire precinct was dissolved and the election results were voided by the state Senate, forcing the removal of the presumed winner. Three elections workers were indicted for faking the votes.

In 1997, a judge declared a Miami mayoral election invalid because of widespread fraud, including dead voters.

And in one of the more notorious examples, inspectors estimated that as many as 1 in 10 ballots cast in Chicago during the 1982 Illinois gubernatorial election were fraudulent for various reasons, including votes by the dead.

JammieWearingFool on October 30, 2006 at 8:18 PM

You’ve got something there, JammieWearingFool. Apparently “voting” doesn’t fall in the same category of certainties as death and taxes.

thedecider on October 30, 2006 at 8:22 PM

1) Smutgate was unnecessary and fairly bush league. That’s been Allen’s tune all season.

2) That said, the only poll that matters is the one on the 7th. All else is noise.

Puritan1648 on October 30, 2006 at 8:22 PM

I think the poll overstates things a bit, but from the moment I saw the release about Webb’s book stuff I wanted to punch Allen, because it was fairly obvious to me that it would come across in much the same way the Ford press conference crash came off–immature and amateurish. When a candidate is consistently showing a 2-3% lead in every poll, he or she must be a complete F’ing moron to do something like Allen did… I will, of course, continue to hope he wins his senate seat, but no one this strategically moronic need be anywhere near the White House.

DaveS on October 30, 2006 at 8:25 PM

Let me get this straight… Allen’s opponent writes about children having sex and ALLEN drops in the polls?!?! Okay, NOW, I’m ready for the second coming.

Mojave Mark on October 30, 2006 at 8:28 PM

I am starting to get this crazy idea that all this Anit-Allen stuff here has more to do with 08 than 06.

TheBigOldDog on October 30, 2006 at 8:29 PM

Okay, NOW, I’m ready for the second coming.

…don’t be in any hurry…if He came back now, BOY, would he be pissed!

Puritan1648 on October 30, 2006 at 8:31 PM

I see Rush has issued an Amber Alert for Nancy Pelosi as the Dems run to the right. It seems they’re in a bit of a scare themselves.

thedecider on October 30, 2006 at 8:34 PM

McCaskill/Talent ALERT

Michael J. Fox now appearing on Bravo.

Guess what? No shaking. That’s odd.

fogw on October 30, 2006 at 8:40 PM

AP posts news that is topical. It seems to me that potential backlash due to a bad campaigning decision which reverses Allen’s lead in the polls is news. And you want to shoot the messenger.

Among the tangibles that actually helped determine the outcome in 2004 was the wave of polls showing the Republicans losing. Local Republican campaign workers went into overdrive getting out the vote to fight those bad poll numbers, and it made a difference.

So keep publishing bad news, Allah. Make it harder for people to stay home and let a Speaker Pelosi happen.

Freelancer on October 30, 2006 at 8:43 PM

Are we sure that’s not the Rasputin poll instead?

Egfrow on October 30, 2006 at 8:49 PM

This poll seems absurd to me, and I would like to see what parts of Virginia they polled. Something is wrong with these polls because if you compare polls by different companies, they have different results that are way outside of the margin for error.

This strikes me as a bandwagon, cheerleading poll for the Democrats, a poll that Dems will point to as proving they won Virginia when they lose the election. Then they will sue, claiming the poll was accurate, and Republicans stole the election.

januarius on October 30, 2006 at 9:00 PM

I was just looking at a history of Rasmussen polls. They claim to have the best accuracy of all the polls, but they consistently underestimate Republican voter turnout in red states, while overestimating Republican support in blue states. Look how off they were in the 2004 election, including Virginia:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/State%20by%20state%20comparisons%202004.htm

I guess this election will hinge on Republican voter turnout, which was low last year, leading to a wacky, left-wing Democrat being elected for governor in Virginia (and he campaigned as a conservative–surprise!)

januarius on October 30, 2006 at 9:49 PM

Tomorrow is Halloween and the dems are spooked.

Entelechy on October 30, 2006 at 9:50 PM

From the Detroit News …

Election rides on get-out-the-vote work

My most embarrassing moment in covering politics — other than the time I pitched a fit and kicked the wall of a RenCen elevator, trapping myself between floors for two hours on Election Night — came on the final Sunday of the 1990 campaign.

I directed a Detroit News poll that ran that day declaring Gov. Jim Blanchard up by an insurmountable 14 points.

Two days later, John Engler won the tightest governor’s race in Michigan history. Blanchard blamed The News for lulling his supporters into complacency when he needed them to fight hard until the very end. And Engler framed our front page for his new office.

And what data does Rasmussen base his polls on?

The number of Americans calling themselves Republican has fallen to its lowest level in more than two-and-a-half years. Just 31.9% of American adults now say they’re affiliated with the GOP. That’s down from 37.2% in October 2004 and 34.5% at the beginning of 2006. These results come from Rasmussen Reports tracking surveys of 15,000 voters per month and have a margin of sampling error smaller than a percentage point.

37% in October, but what he doesn’t tell us is that he ‘found’ a large drop in that number right after the President was re-elected.

Finally, I offer the article found at Times Online

At the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee headquarters, Karin Johanson, the executive director, has taken up smoking again, but with only eight days to go before polling day she says that there is scant time for indulging the habit.

Speaking to The Times as she pored over the latest numbers from swing seats, Ms Johanson said: “Some of the polls are looking great — really great — but some of the recent ones have been looking not so good.” The Democrats were “swimming upstream”, she said, against long-term disadvantages. They will be outspent by as much as $100 million (£52 million) in the coming week because their opponents have amassed vast war chests for TV advertising. Boundary changes (a more pejorative word might be “gerrymandering”) mean that there are far fewer marginal seats to target than there were when the Republicans took control of the House of Representatives 12 years ago.

Yep! It sure looks bad for Republicans, but doesn’t it always?

DannoJyd on October 30, 2006 at 9:55 PM

Hi Entelechy! Looks like another case of great minds thinking alike. ;o)

DannoJyd on October 30, 2006 at 9:56 PM

Hello Danno – thanks for all your efforts for Nov. 7th – been reading your notes – just harder to connect with more commenters and lots of work and business trips. Not ranting, just saying :)

I’m all nervous and excited about Nov. 7th but I had to vote absentee, as I’m out of town for work that week. Hope to get on line for the special night. I live for such!

Entelechy on October 30, 2006 at 10:00 PM

Entelechy , I’ll be poll watching on election night. The last time I did that I got stuck waiting for the votes of the last half hour to be hand counted due to a machine malfunction, so I didn’t get home until the following day.

I’ve read where as many as 1/4th of the voters have voted with absentee ballots. I doubt if we will know the actual results within a week of the 7th., and we do want the votes of our troops to be counted.

Did you run across the picture of the float I worked on?

DannoJyd on October 30, 2006 at 10:10 PM

The smut in the Virginia race has been the Democrats slapping the following on George Allen:
innuendos, but no proof of being a North African French colonial racist
innuendos, but no proof of being a southern racist
flat J’accuse! of being Jewish by trotting out suspect ancestors in the middle of a debate about state and federal issues, not bloodlines.
innuendos, but no proof of financial irregularies
innuendos, but no proof of blocking all stem cell research, thus condeming millions of suffers of all kinds of diseases to die miserably, and unloved

Allen in contrast gave the riposte to the Foley manufactured outrage by simply drawing people’s attention to Webb’s kitchy, lousy published prose. (Banana anyone?)
Didn’t you all hear the boos in the audience when the reporter demanded Allen explain what relgion his mother practiced? Those were the booes of voters who knew pure slime when they saw it. Remember how the polls were reporting that Kerry was ahead in VA over Bush? It took two seconds before the mind said, “Kerry ahead of Bush in Virginia? Nooo way.” Allen hasn’t slimed anyone, Webb’s own words are sufficent for a self-slime. So, what smutgate? The slime is coming from the Democrats.

naliaka on October 30, 2006 at 10:16 PM

Danno, missed your float picture. I spent the weekend in Parker, AZ, at the Colorado river, and checked HA only furtively. Please tell me where you posted and I’ll ckeck it out.

I read that too about the 1/4 absentee – that’s usually good for us but I don’t know what to make of any stats at this point.

Entelechy on October 30, 2006 at 10:29 PM

President Kerry won the 2004 exit polls in a landslide.

pjcomix on October 30, 2006 at 10:31 PM

Polls, schmolls.

tickleddragon on October 30, 2006 at 10:42 PM

Ras poll says so again?

That’s great news, SENATOR Allen!

.

The Machine on October 30, 2006 at 10:45 PM

Entelechy, I forget which thread I posted that in so here are a few touched up [brightened] pics of the float, and some of those along for the ride. We went out in the rain, and freezing cold to create some excitement, and I believe we succeeded.
Pic 1
Pic 2
Pic 3
The GOP elephant kept being blown apart. I think there was some donkey in the frelling thing. I am not seen in those as I took those pictures, but my daughter is. :oD

DannoJyd on October 30, 2006 at 10:47 PM

its Michelle’s falult, that dag gum opinion.

JUST KIDDING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Allan will win. Get out the vote.

Has anyone changed Webb’s batteries lately?

Ross

kara26 on October 30, 2006 at 10:53 PM

I am starting to get this crazy idea that all this Anit-Allen stuff here has more to do with 08 than 06.

TheBigOldDog on October 30, 2006 at 8:29 PM

Make that two of us with that crazy idea.

thirteen28 on October 30, 2006 at 10:55 PM

Thanks Danno. Looks like fun, in spite of the rain/storm. If your daughter is the girl with dark hair, covering her forefront, she’s a cutie. She resembles her dad. You’re teaching her well, early. Great job,

Entelechy on October 31, 2006 at 12:11 AM

Allen really has become damaged goods. Even he does win his seat there will be no way for a vice presidential run. I know three months ago my fiance’s Dad (a politician) and I thought Allen would be a front runner for vice president. Not anymore and yeah polls never mean much because they can be asked to get a certan response, but Allah is doing his job and getting Conservatives fired up so that they will vote next week. Thanks Allah keep it rolling.

Dittohead on October 31, 2006 at 12:56 AM

If Allen loses its his own damned fault. What a moron. “Hurr, here’s what my opponent wrote in a fiction book about what he saw while he was fighting in Vietnam! GREAT IDEA! THIS WILL HELP ME WIN IT FOR SURE! THE VOTERS WON’T SEE THIS AS CONDESCENDING OVERREACH! NO SIR! JUST LIKE THAT “MY OPPONENT WOULDN”T EXECUTE HITLER” AD THAT KILGORE RAN LAST YEAR IN VIRGINIA! THAT WON HIM THE… OH FU-”

Moron. Kilgore cost himself the governorship last year because of that ridiculous attack ad. And now Allen is going to cost himself a senate seat because of this stupid attack on what Jim Webb wrote in a fiction book. Don’t actually criticize the guy for his record or anything. No, criticize his fiction. Fantastic plan. Just like Rick Santorum claiming Bob Casey is “guilty of terrorism and genocide”.

Yeah, that’s really going to save your ass, Rick.

Thanks Georgey, you just cost us the senate, because Dems are hyperpartisan this year and are not going to dump Menendez or Cardin. They would have elected Torrisceli from a jail cell in 2002 if they’d had a chance. NJ and Maryland are just too Democratic in a year where Bush derangement syndrome is too widespread.

Now it’s going to come down to Missouri and Tennessee.

Grebrook on October 31, 2006 at 2:23 AM

“…seven-point swing. In six days. According to a highly credible pollster who’s had Allen leading all year.”

Bullshit.

Michael Barone exposed the pollsters this weekend. They always overpoll or too-heavily-weigh the DEMOCRATS.

The two big scandals this year will be: Polling exposed as extremely unreliable because of partisanship. And the media is an integral part of the Democratic Party.

This election may just put the final nail in the media coffin.

Remember EVERYTHING we hear about a Democratic landslide is based upon polling. Then the media starts hyping up what are polls with built-in pro-democratic bias.

Ironically, Noam Chomsky coined the term: MANUFACTURING CONSENT. They are trying to manufacture a victory for the Democrats.

As Mark Halprin said on Hugh Hewitt’s show today:

MH: I never say MSM, because I don’t believe the old media is mainstream. They’re out of the mainstream on most of the issues I’ve been referring to. So I don’t use that phrase. I believe that as I’ve said several times, happy to say again, that anyone who’s conservative in this country has every justification to be skeptical about anything, an internal memo, or product that goes on the air, from the old media, because of a forty year or more history of liberal bias on a range of issues. And after what CBS News did in 2004, regarding the President’s National Guard record, I would be…I am thankful that any conservative looks to us every for news and information, given how outrageous what they did was.

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/g/8096249b-e534-43ac-81ac-8c4722648377

I watched the News Hour tonight and they had a segment on concerning the election and the upcoming “Democratic sweep.” Honest to God, the two “guests” were doing endzone dances already.

Bullshit.

georgej on October 31, 2006 at 3:14 AM

Dannojyd, nice elephant. Gets my vote. Thanks for the pics.

tormod on October 31, 2006 at 5:26 AM

Who cares? Allan has done nothing for the average American.

LZVandy on October 31, 2006 at 6:24 AM

Michael Barone is a conservative Republican, he’s naturally going to make the rounds and try to spin things. He’s as unreliable as that idiot Dick Morris who claims “Hillary will win in 2008″ supposedly because some horde of single women will jam the poll booths to elect her. Bullshit on both of them.

Rasmussen is the best pollster in the country, second only to Mason-Dixon. We’re not talking Zogby here. Rasmussen accurately predicted the results of the Virginia Gubernatorial and New Jersey Gubernatorial elections last year.

Take a look:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2005
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Jersey_gubernatorial_election,_2005

Grebrook on October 31, 2006 at 7:10 AM

If I were Howard Dean and I was looking at Maryland, I’d panic.

Pablo on October 30, 2006 at 7:28 PM

Really?

Think Md race is over. My best guess is MO goes Dem, TN goes Rep and VA could go either way. I wish the election were today, I grow weary of this constant barrage.

honora on October 31, 2006 at 9:21 AM

Entelechy, Thank you. I do think you spotted her. She was wearing the red jacket that Michael DeVos gave her last Friday. I really like the guy, and believe he could turn around Michigans lousy economy.

Tormod, thanks. The people who built ole Elly did a great job, but no one expected that Elly would have to face 50 mile winds. Heck, my daughter nearly got her first flying lesson while carrying a Bouchard lawn sign.

We had a lot of people honking in approval as they drove past in their cars, and trucks. I have no doubt that our local electorate are excited this year.

DannoJyd on October 31, 2006 at 10:33 AM

Alen will win by 6 to 8 points. His Presidential run will be determined by how well he connects with voters. The Rasputin poll is a joke as are all the detractors for making an issue of a highly relevant issue such as Webb being a bizarre character, not too mention a petty, whining flake with nothing to offer except the John Kerry mantra: “I’m right because I was in Vietnam and you weren’t.”

revolution on October 31, 2006 at 11:06 AM

You’re delusional revolution, honestly.

There’s a difference between cheering for your team and shutting your eyes blindly to the facts.

Grebrook on October 31, 2006 at 1:26 PM

Apparently the Rasmussen poll was a one-day Sunday poll. Not a real good indicator of…well…anything.

jdpaz on October 31, 2006 at 2:16 PM

I expect the polls to start swinging in favor of many Republicans from today on. Such is what we’ve seen for a decade now.

DannoJyd on November 1, 2006 at 8:30 AM