Pew poll: “Anger motivates Democrats more than others”; Poll: Murtha leads Irey by 27

posted at 3:40 pm on October 12, 2006 by Allahpundit

A third of the way down on the right-hand side here. You can almost hear the Dean scream.

Not as funny this time, though. If this keeps up, they really will be going to D.C. to take back the White House:

pew.gif

The polls about vote accuracy halfway down are interesting/depressing, too.

Scott Elliott of Election Projection sounds the alarm while Barnett finds the silver lining. Will the schadenfreude we feel watching Joementum steamroll the nutroots be enough to offset the misery on election night? Depends on the margin, I think. A five-point win for Liebs can plausibly be claimed as a moral victory by the Kossacks.

A 15-point win? After Lamont won the primary? With Iraq as bad as it is right now?

Not so much.

Liebs fought off yet another smear today, by the way. Turns out he does believe in civil rights.

lamont-makeup.jpg

Update: Here’s what happens when you run a one-issue campaign and pick the worst possible one issue to run on. It’s like trying to build a skyscraper on a swamp.

Or, if you prefer, a “quagmire.”

Irey’s been a bit of a dial tone in her cable chat-show appearances, too.

The poll sample skews overwhelmingly Democratic but that’s not necessarily inaccurate. I can’t find demographic data for the 12th District online, but considering that Murtha’s a 16-term incumbent, it’s safe to say it’s a deep, deep blue.

Next stop for the Marines: Okinawa?

murtha.jpg


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Comments

Even here in HI, they scream and threaten, declare global warming, HATE BUSH.

The Religion of Peace and the Democratic Party should get together. They have a lot in common. Er, maybe not.

I have to laugh!

Hopefully there’s enough common sense out there to see past the hate.

Kini on October 12, 2006 at 3:52 PM

I’m still looking for a democrat to tell me precisely what it is they want. I know the one “given” beaten into their heads is “universal health care”, whatever that is. But what else do they want? The economy is great, we haven’t been attacked. The war in Iraq is just an excuse for them to browbeat Bush. What if we weren’t there? What else is there? Does it really come down to “gay marriage” and more taxes? Or does it really boil down to they just hate President Bush because he is a man of faith?

I really don’t know what they want or what they stand for.

darwin on October 12, 2006 at 3:56 PM

5% more Democrats than Republicans in the sample. 10% more Democrats than Independents. How you justify 38% Democrats among likely voters is beyond me. Don’t get sucked into poll data too much Allah. Every year it’s less reliable and every year it predicts less about what’s really going on out there.

The Apologist on October 12, 2006 at 4:04 PM

I love that some folks insist that we need “universal health care.” We have universal health care. Down at Yale, their ER has a big plaque insisting they will not turn anyone away, even if they cannot pay for medical. And I am willing to wager all hospitals feel the same way. The wait at Yale is sufficient that one feels compelled to read the plaques ont he wall, because you aren’t going anywhere. What they really think we need is universal health insurance, another oxymoron, in that your health can only be insured by your own efforts to live a healthy lifestyle. Anyway, taxpayer paid health care (what they really want) doesn’t sound important like universal health care does.

They just hate Bush because he is not one of them. His faith has little to do with it. His name might. I am sure that the election of Bush’s son felt like a repudiation of the Clinton years. But honestly, any Republican would be just as hated, especially if it came down to a few hanging chads in Florida.

Ennuipundit on October 12, 2006 at 4:16 PM

They’re outraged

Understatement. They’re beyond outraged; they’re obsessed. If they lose again, most of them end up in asylums.

Depends on the margin, I think. A five-point win for Liebs can plausibly be claimed as a moral victory by the Kossacks.

In politics it’s not the margin/s and there are no moral victories; it’s you win or lose.

From Dean Barnett:

Wouldn’t it be funny if Democrat control of the Senate depended on Lieberman’s continuing loyalty to the caucus that has so eagerly insulted, mocked, ridiculed and belittled him the last couple of years? Just saying.

What would be beyond funny is if Mr. Lieberman would then pull a Jeffeson and switch parties.

Schadenfreude would excert itself in screams louder/longer than Howard Dean’s.

It would be the ultimate “revenge thing”, à la Karol…

Entelechy on October 12, 2006 at 4:19 PM

Motivated by hate for America…hmmmm… sounds familiar.

SouthernGent on October 12, 2006 at 4:21 PM

Watch us keep control of everything in November. Everything. That’s going to feel so good – I love all these tight elections. It’s like the Millenium Falcom escaping from the Death Star right as it explodes, leaving the whining little TIE Fighters in the flames. I know it sounds optimistic, but every time something like this pops up, I can’t help but recall the screams of horror and Bush Derangement Syndrome echoing throughout the north east when they realized the exit polls were dead wrong during the 04 election. I hope every election is like that, I love schadenfreude.

Savage on October 12, 2006 at 4:27 PM

Darwin, they stand for freedom from personal responsibility ,although they would be loathe to admit it.
Apologist, agreed, when pollsters do get me on the phone I just tell them I don’t have the time for their shennanigans and loaded questions.

bbz123 on October 12, 2006 at 4:28 PM

Across every question about politics and government, Democrats express high levels of dissatisfaction, especially with President Bush.

And rain is wet.

fogw on October 12, 2006 at 4:29 PM

They hardly took into account the apathetically lazy factor, or their defeatist attitude (some of which I see around here and I do not like it, damnit!).

They’re more enthusiastic at home, but will they actually go to the polls? Then there’s the rift factor. The Democrats may be all worked up into a tizzy and they may turn out in record numbers to vote, but vote for whom? There’s been an ideological rift between the two factions of the party for awhile. I myself refuse to vote strictly on party lines just because it’s the party line. I think most sane adults are the same way.

The activist Dems, the ones who hang around and talk to their computers 24 hours a day, have no idea what it is like to be away from a computer screen. They’re not out and about amongst average citizens shopping for food, filling their cars up with gas, trying to educate their kids and trying to figure out how to pay the mortgage or the medical bills. All they can do is sit on a computer in their parents basement and be angry. Although, occassionally, they do go to a gathering or two and prove to the world just how screwed up they are on national TV. Otherwise, they do nothing but sit around and speak about their pain. They’re selfish pissed off ideaological immature kids… or 30-something’s still trying to “find themselves”, in their parents basement.

As most of us know, Daily Kos is a great example of where they congregate. They are overly rude and unnaturally angry. They often tell people who ask questions or have differing opinions to do unnatural things with barnyard animals or their mothers and –most importantly– they don’t make any sense at all. I, and many of us here, have read their posts and comments on Daily Kos (the hub of their existence). Nothing but pure hate, sincerely wishing certain people would die horrible painful deaths. Posts and comments that insult and denigrate our soldiers are a dime a dozen. And, let us not forget their conspiracy theories born out of pure insanity, or a narcotic induced fog, or both. “Moonbat”, “nutroots”, and tinfoil hat references comes to mind regarding them. If you spend any amount of time over there you begin to understand why those references came to be.

Those people have no idea what is important to the mature adult “governing class” voters. They have no idea how to connect with someone who doesn’t use emoticons in every damn sentence. The kind of anger the activist/blog Dems use and cultivate is the kind you find in adolescents and college meetings of the socialist party. It is undefined. It is petulant and childish, and it is at times vile and violent. Mature adults have little patience for this kind of anger and rhetoric, and their insanity. Serious people stop listening to the rantings of those on the moonbat blogs who refuse to shower because the belief that body and foot odor mixed with Patchouli will somehow bring about social justice.

Anger motivates people. It moves them to care, act, and also to vote. All of that is true; but anger tempered with some semblance of sanity and reality will win the day for the Democrats. Unfortunately for them (fortunately for us), sanity and reality is in short supply over there. The sane and the nutroots will be cancelling eachother out with their votes, providing the nutroots actually leave their computers to go vote.

/bleh

SilverStar830 on October 12, 2006 at 4:48 PM

Next stop for the Marines: Okinawa?

Or solitary confinement at Camp Pendleton (with shackles). War crimes they are to be charged with (but undoubtedly committed) to be determined later. By Murtha of course.

thirteen28 on October 12, 2006 at 4:54 PM

Watch us keep control of everything in November. Everything.

But when they lose, they’ll claim a victory because the margins will be thin (so we’re being told). If the Republicans lose one seat in the House or Senate the dinosaur media will swear it was a democrat landslside.

SouthernGent on October 12, 2006 at 4:56 PM

AP, I don’t have any demographic data for the 12th Congressional District, but I know a bit about it’s makeup; I grew up there (and most of my family is still there). In spite of a few tech companies that have been brought into the area in the last couple of years, the district is most definitely deep, deep blue. It’s a blue-collar area, steel mills and coal mines, and the loss of jobs when those industries failed in the area, largely have determined the political makeup… pro-union, pro-Democrat. Not liberals in the Kos/Pelosi sense, but very committed to Murtha. Unfortunately I live just outside the 12th CD, so I can’t cast my vote for Diane Irey, but I have tried my best to convince family and friends that it’s time for a change.

dalewalt on October 12, 2006 at 5:08 PM

SouthernGent,

MSM and DNC will declare victory if Republicans lose one seat, break even, or even gain a seat.

They always win, just as infallible poll results predict they will.

fogw on October 12, 2006 at 5:12 PM

Watch us keep control of everything in November. Everything.

Don’t bet on it. The fact is, the Republican base is incredibly demoralized. News stories about the White House paying lip service to evangelical Christians don’t help. Nor do things like Foley, Hariet Miers, Condi Rice’s appeasement of Palestinian terrorists, the lack of a foreign policy regarding Iran and NK, and the fact that there’s no answer to the question of what to do if Iraq goes sour. Bush isn’t committed to immigration enforcement and practically has to be begged to sign the fence law. Republicans still aren’t serious about ending pork, and the Senate is still kicking the can on judges. And I say this as a conservative.

It’s not for nothing those polls show republicans as not motivated to vote. Even if the poll oversampled democrats, such an oversampling wouldn’t affect the trend of self-identified Republicans. No matter how you spin it, there’s a big problem.

Sydney Carton on October 12, 2006 at 5:16 PM

Irey doesn’t have a chance. Murtha’s district is about as moonbatty as it gets in Pennsylvania. They love him.

rightwingprof on October 12, 2006 at 5:25 PM

it isn’t a matter of moonbatty; it’s just that Murtha’s pulled in a lot of pork for the area, and with the loss of so many blue-collar jobs; the residents are blinded to any other issues.

dalewalt on October 12, 2006 at 5:28 PM

And rain is wet.

fogw on October 12, 2006 at 4:29 PM

And the Earth is not flat; after all, even the previous Pope said so.

AP, thanks for posting my two favorite pics again, Hillary in laurels and Murtha, above.

Even the nuttiest of lefties ought to be scared of the insane look on Murtha’s face. But, alas, the insane don’t recognize each other. It’s all ‘blame someone else’.

Entelechy on October 12, 2006 at 5:32 PM

AP, try this link: 12th CD

dalewalt on October 12, 2006 at 5:33 PM

Don’t bet on it. The fact is, the Republican base is incredibly demoralized. News stories about the White House paying lip service to evangelical Christians don’t help. Nor do things like Foley, Hariet Miers, Condi Rice’s appeasement of Palestinian terrorists, the lack of a foreign policy regarding Iran and NK, and the fact that there’s no answer to the question of what to do if Iraq goes sour. Bush isn’t committed to immigration enforcement and practically has to be begged to sign the fence law. Republicans still aren’t serious about ending pork, and the Senate is still kicking the can on judges. And I say this as a conservative.

It’s not for nothing those polls show republicans as not motivated to vote. Even if the poll oversampled democrats, such an oversampling wouldn’t affect the trend of self-identified Republicans. No matter how you spin it, there’s a big problem.

Sydney Carton on October 12, 2006 at 5:16 PM

Dear Conservative Sydney,

I have highlighted the big problem, and source thereof.

fogw on October 12, 2006 at 5:34 PM

I know a few democrats. They ALL wish they had a candidate they wanted to vote for that had even a slim chance of winning or any general appeal. It’s no wonder their only motivation is Bush hate.

Reality Check on October 12, 2006 at 5:49 PM

Kini, did you check out the Theilen ad. The chances of her winning in HI are slim to none and slim just left by the back door. Another 6 years of the utter uselessness of Akaka. BTW check out Island Insights on Monday? They had that Watada punk’s old man on there for the entire half hour. I thought the moderator was going to have an orgasm over him.
I know a number of guys who contributed to Irey’s campaign but I don’t think she has a chance. I would like to see her win but as others have said the pork he’s brought back has pretty much given him an absolute until he’s dead.

Catie96706 on October 12, 2006 at 6:11 PM

fogw,

Are you telling me that Hariet Miers was a figment of my imagination from the news? That it didn’t reflect an amazing indifference to an incredibly important position that conservatives have strived for? That judges are NOT stalled in the Senate? That Republicans are NOT still wedded to pork? That Bush did NOT allow the abortion-pill on to the market? That the ports fiasco was NOT an error in judgment? That we actually have a plan to deal with North Korea? Or Iran?

I hate the MSM as much as you, but the serious failures of the Republicans are not the fault of the media. And I won’t be spun by a blog or the MSM either way. The fact is, Republicans are demoralized because the Congress has done little and the Administration hasn’t helped. And the numbers prove that. Just look: they are not motivated. And if you disbelieve those numbers, have you been reading NRO? Captains Quarters? Power Line? All of them admit that Republicans have grasped defeat from the jaws of victory, largely through their own doing. When the Dems take over because no one turns out for the GOP, if you try to blame the media, you won’t fool me.

Sydney Carton on October 12, 2006 at 7:00 PM

Sydney,

The Harriet Miers nomination and withdrawal was totally blown out of proportion by the media, I pay about as much attention to the Harriet Miers nomination as I do to the geopolitical strategies of John Murtha. The wisdom or lack thereof, of nominating her will have no influence on my vote come next month. On this we can disagree, but I would hate to see a conservative like yourself be swayed in your vote by this minor drive-by accident. I on the other hand see the glass as half full. We came out of the Supreme battle with Roberts and Alito. Chalk one up for us. It might be worth remembering how our political opponents came out of this debacle with egg on their face. They bitched about Miers, called it cronyism and ended up with John Roberts. That doesn’t even come close to a political loss for the Republicans.

I am not yet convinced by the MSM or the pollsters that the Republicans have self-destructed of their own doing and are doomed for defeat. I remember hearing the same proclamations during the last two election cycles, and in the end the Republican Party came out on top. While I admit I too have been frustrated with our party on many counts, I am quite certain the outcome would have been far worse had the Democrats been running the show. Many of us are pissed, but demoralized as a party? That’s the mantra thrown out there by the MSM, once again hoping if they say it long enough and loud enough, even the Republicans will swallow their crap.

There’s only one poll I’m interested in., the one taken on November 7th.

fogw on October 12, 2006 at 8:04 PM

Bush is the key. He is not weak on border control with Mexico. He intentionally wants no border with Mexico. The games being played on the border are totally under his control. And he owns the RNC.

– Illegals are released intentionally
– Agents are punished for slowing the flow
– The soldiers are not being used for any type of control
– Businesses are not being prosecuted for hiring illegals except a few show-trials
– Bush calls citizens who voluntarily watch the border and report incursions ‘vigilantes’
– yet Bush is soft on the Reconquista demonstators, those who raise Mexican flags on federal buildings, Aztlan, La Raza and ‘kill the whitey’ rhetoric
– Bush made sure Arlen Specter was re-elected to facilitate the Immigration Bill
– Bush (via the RNC) is withholding all funding from Randy Graf’s closed border Congressional campaign
– Jeb Bush calls ‘hurtful’ those who oppose open borders

– Bush negotiated without treaty an agreement to facilitate open borders at all levels and is funding it

This is the crux: trust.

On this issue there is none.

Because this is not a trivial issue. It involves the disenfranchisement of the American voter by about 30 million votes and climbing. It s also about the Chief Executive’s oath to uphold the laws of the United States.

Bush has decided to selectively uphold those laws that meet his agenda.

I can’t vote for DEMs because they will have ceded the war on terror. They are anti-Christian, self loathers who are trying to erase America off the books. Yet I know that voting GOP enhances the current drift of the GOP – toward selective enforcement of the law to meet the agenda. However, I am not part of the agenda, because the White House is ignoring the law, and that is all I can influence. The GOP is playing hardball with dissenters. I Wish they were as tough on DEMs.

I will not help the DEMs win, but I may end up with an enemy even more deadly by validating the Bush ticket.

This is the first election in my life where I am sick to my stomach.

Meanwhile while these two sets of SOBs play God with the Constitution, the greatest force of enemies in our history is collecting to destroy us

Bush will save me if I give up my nation to his better world.

The DEMs will save me if I give up my nation to their better world.

A pox on both their houses

entagor on October 12, 2006 at 8:17 PM

Harsh words, entagor. Harsh, but powerful.

These are the times that try men’s souls. The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country; but he that stands by it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.

theholyhermit on October 13, 2006 at 1:51 AM

I’m pretty sure I know what will cheer them up……..

honora on October 13, 2006 at 10:22 AM

“We are now the liberal and the conservative party”…yeahhhh!

Entelechy on October 13, 2006 at 6:11 PM