North Korean official: Strict sanctions mean war; Update: Japan imposes sanctions
posted at 2:24 am on October 11, 2006 by Allahpundit
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Maybe they’re bluffing, maybe they’re not. Good luck!
Seriously, if the UN imposes Chapter VII, why wouldn’t Kim move on Seoul? What’s left for him to lose? Even the doves in South Korea admit that the sunshine policy’s failed. If the Security Council tightens the screws, what’s to gain by waiting around? Japan doesn’t have nukes yet; our military is overextended and morale is low. The NorKs won’t see a moment this golden again. Why not seize it?
Update: And if they do, is it really our problem?
Update: Japan won’t blink.
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AP
This is offtopic BUT
Before it disappears off of YouTube (dems are going crazy)
see this…from David Zucker – a spoof of Madeline Albright.
Darleen on October 11, 2006 at 2:29 AM
Carpe, carpe!
Who cares what they think or bluff about? If they consider sanctions a war then that gives us the right to easily surround them (except to the North, of course) and inspect all their ships and movements.
We can only wish they’d be so stupid, as to move South, at this time.
Shrewdly, they’ll wait to see who will be CiC after 2008.
Entelechy on October 11, 2006 at 2:32 AM
Why would they move on Seoul? I’m not sure KJI’s looking for conquest–especially of a bunch of independent-minded democracy freaks with influential American cousins.
see-dubya on October 11, 2006 at 2:39 AM
Don’t blink.
News Flash, the war never ended.
Allah, it’s almost 9PM here, and your still up???! ;)
Do you think the SK’s are ready?
Kini on October 11, 2006 at 2:54 AM
Who says morale is low? That doesn’t help.
marianpaul on October 11, 2006 at 3:03 AM
Some of the South Korean military is ready, but I doubt the majority are. (Some are darn good troops, many will be worthless). The civilian population? I doubt it.
What’s Kim got to lose? His life. He
may beis insane; he doesn’t give a darn about his people, but he likes his cognac and Swedish Blonde hookers too much to REALLY give them up. And insane or not, he realizes that a real war would cost him his comforts and probably his life.And as far as his army… I got a feeling that the only way that they will really fight seriously is because they are hungry and hope to get some good kimchee if they can conquer the South. While his military eats better than the average civilian, they still are nutritionally deprived. Hard to fight a long campaign on an empty stomach.
LegendHasIt on October 11, 2006 at 3:21 AM
Especially with China (apparently) being mad at him. With China’s backing, Kim might be willing to take the risk.
But without the backing of a major power (and I don’t think China is ready to go hot… yet), He would have to be muslim or something to be willing go it alone.
Blackmail is his goal, not hot lead and steel.
(Bet he really misses the clintons and his sexy aunt Maddie and his fat cousin Bill Richardson.)
JMHO
LegendHasIt on October 11, 2006 at 3:27 AM
I don’t think he can. I don’t think his army has any ability to project power. They can defend N. Korea from a ground invasion in a static defense, but any attempt by them to move south and actually invade S. Korea would run out of gas very quickly.
I think that’s part of why he is seeking nukes. (the other part is he a bug-f**k crazy evil bastard) He knows he is weak in every way that matters. Militarily and economically. Heck, the N. Koreans spend 5 billion on their armed forces. The S. Koreans spend over 20 billion on theirs. And the S. Koreans have a better equipped and higher tech military. The S. Koreans vs. the N. Koreans is like U.S. vs Iraq in the first gulf war. Everybody was talking about how tough and bad assed Saddam’s military was and how tough it was going to be for us. History took umbrage with that. It will be the same if war breaks out in Korea.
EFG on October 11, 2006 at 3:44 AM
What’s to gain by going to war? They can hurt SoKo. But they can’t keep it, adn their other neighbors would erase them for trying anything funny. So what do they get? A few good meals?
Pablo on October 11, 2006 at 3:44 AM
It’s a bluff. But it provides the Chinese the cover they need to deny us Chap VII. It’s all a game guys, and China holds most of the Aces.
The Apologist on October 11, 2006 at 4:09 AM
What does he have to gain?
It doesn’t sound like his nuclear program is exactly up to par yet. He will be annihilated if he tries anything and lest he have any doubts we ought to let him know in advance that we will defend South Korea with our own nukes if he wants to try anything funny. It is high time that world powers got together and called his bluff. He is a tinpot nobody on the international scene and he needs to be put in his proper place.
Kim Jong-Il is a materialist and a hedonist. He isn’t going to suicidally put his own ass on the line just to prove a point. Kim Jong-Il is no kamikaze. Reary!
tommy1 on October 11, 2006 at 4:24 AM
AP wrote: “…why wouldn’t Kim move on Seoul? What’s left for him to lose?”
His capital city.
His army, armor, and artillery just north of the border.
His rail, industrial, and distribution centers.
Every city with a population over 20,000 people.
And with it, the ability of his government SURVIVE, if you want to call it survival living in a devastated country that has been nuked.
One Trident sub — just one.
The situation with North Korea is an ARMISTACE, not PEACE. The “Korean War” never ended.
georgej on October 11, 2006 at 5:51 AM
Do they have enough fuel to reach Seoul? Seriously. This is a country where the average height of its citizens has dropped three inches in 50 years from malnutrition. Thier military may have done some training, but the generals arent even allowed CNN, so how can they even ponder modern warfare? So its a million starved, brainwashed, weak, poorly equipped soldiers coming across the border. Praise the lord and pass the ammunition….
HerrMorgenholz on October 11, 2006 at 6:19 AM
Sounds good. We’ll alert our forces in South Korea and begin the moment logistics allow.
Bellicose Muse on October 11, 2006 at 6:41 AM
They spend all day pondering warfare in a way our generals don’t.
They’re caught up with politics and political correctness and such.
Some of our Western generals are better of course.
I don’t believe the North Korean military is superior. But they get the cream of the crop as far as food, weapons, supplies, etc. goes. They’re not starved nor weak. You’re simply wrong about that. They have fuel. Lots of it.
Don’t sell them short. They would inflict massive damage in a war — like they did last time.
It’s all very well and good for you to be so brave with the lives of the citizens of Seoul et al. But many of them would die and quickly.
I’m not a pacifist. It may come down to a military solution. But the powers that be in the pentagon and Washington have a more sober and realistic assessment of the situation than the one you just offerred, I trust, Herr Morgenholz.
Christoph on October 11, 2006 at 6:46 AM
Oh, and reality check… with the dug-in and pre-sighted artilery pieces the North has, in greater quantities than has ever existed in one space in military history, the first day of combat would result in more American military casualties than the entire Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns for the last 3-4 years combined.
Christoph on October 11, 2006 at 6:49 AM
The Norks can deliver somewhere between 300,000 and 500,000 artillary shells per hour directly on Seoul from fixed, well defended, and hidden motar and rocket launchers. In the first two hours the estimates of dead that I have seen exceed 1,000,000 people. In Seoul alone. It’s the first move they make no matter what the scenario is. Kim doesn’t want war. He doesn’t want the blockade which would require Chap VII to get. It’s all a bluff for China. This way China can veto Chap VII sanctions.
The Apologist on October 11, 2006 at 6:57 AM
Dr. Sanity has a great post regarding malignant narcissists like Kim and others of his ilk. (Lots of good links too.) Well worth the read if you want to know what makes these lunatics tick.
http://drsanity.blogspot.com/
IrishEi on October 11, 2006 at 7:15 AM
This is WW3, Kim is Tojo, Amajamadingdong is Hitler and Chavez is trying to be Mussolini. The three of them have a strategy together, pull our attention back and forth between them until the rubber band snaps.
The Cold War military was designed to fight one big war against the Soviets on two fronts OR two small regional wars like Iran and North Korea. But now we’re in Iraq and Afghanistan too so we’d be overstretched (thanks BillyJeff) if we did either Dingdong or the Ronery rittle Kim.
With our planes in Iraq and Afghanistan we can do Iran from the air with fighter/bombers and armor on the ground. And we can hit N.K. with our Air Force heavy bombers and Navy attack planes. But we don’t have enough troops in S.K. We do have plans to move more troops there but that’ll take some time, and again we’d be overstretched (thanks again to Bill Klinton).
As for Chavez, well, we’d probably just have to ignore his little air force as it joins up in Cuba with Castro’s little air force. The Florida Air National Guard would put them down within minutes if they tried anything stupid.
I hate to sound like a war monger but I want all of this (and terrorism) dealt with before my daughter is old enough to understand. I want her to live in a world where peace is all they know and war is what they read about in History Class.
Tony737 on October 11, 2006 at 8:06 AM
Kim Jong-il is completely bluffing, and he is not insane. He has seen what we did to Iraq, knows we have a Republican in power, and will not declare war for his self-preservation.
These threats are to scare the doves in South Korea back into the “sunshine policy,” and to influence them not to back sanctions. The South Koreans will probably back down under this threat.
januarius on October 11, 2006 at 8:47 AM
I don’t think it will be anything like Iraq – if he uses a nuke, anywhere, it’ll be over for him. I just don’t think we’ll pussyfoot around with that.
That would be nice, wouldn’t it? but unfortunately, I think that’s a pipe dream. I think our kids are in for a hell of a lot more than we can possibly imagine.
pullingmyhairout on October 11, 2006 at 9:08 AM
Uh, I don’t know where I did that, my friend. If war breaks out, it will be the Norks trying to move south. Honestly, this doom and gloom scenario sounds like the “10,000 US dead” I heard before the first Gulf War, what with the vaunted, elite Republican Guard on the case. Expressing my opinion of NKs military prowess is not playing “chickenhawk” or something with the people of Seoul. And let’s face it, Christoph, that was just a “chickenhawk”-like ad hominem attack.
Yes the army gets the best stuff of any Nork citizens. But thats roughly akin to being the finest violinist in Possum Holler, West Virginia. Yep, they’ve lots of artillery. From what I’ve heard, they’ve even got a couple soldiers that can fire them, but not many. But they are not a professional force, and would probably fall back on the “human wave” tactics that served them oh so well in the 50s. And no, they don’t have a lot of fuel. The ChiComs have not been near as generous with them as you may think. No, they don’t have well-maintained equipment. No, they won’t kill a million citizens of Seoul in the first hours. They’ll lob some artillery, send a bunch of crazed cannon fodder across the border singing about Great Leader’s nine holes-in-one, and die in droves.
HerrMorgenholz on October 11, 2006 at 9:09 AM
The logic of Allah’s take on this is hard to ignore.
But I also suspect that Kim’s military is a lot more hollow than conventional wisdom would have it.
SWLiP on October 11, 2006 at 9:15 AM
pullingmyhairout:
My post above was based off of my estimate of what would happen if the North did a conventional invasion of the South.
At this time, the North has an extremely iffy “possible” nuke. But right now I’m sure they don’t have the ability now to use this nuke in an offensive manner. They can’t put it on a rocket yet, or in an artillery shell, and I’ll bet they can’t even put it on the back of a large truck. Not yet.
So right now the only conceivable way they could use whatever fizzling type semi-defective nukes they might have now would be to detonate it in place in the North if we crossed the DMZ with troops. Sort of as the worlds biggest land mine or obstacle.
So we still have some time to deal with this guy. The time is running out, but it isn’t all gone.
EFG on October 11, 2006 at 9:38 AM
The vast majority NK citizens would feel the brunt of sanctions. Kim will continue down his road of destruction at the expense of his people. Sanctions and negotiations to this point have provided nothing.
NK has singled out the U.S. as the aggressor. We need to dilute our part of the equation. I would be inclined to involve other willing countries (GB, Australia, etc.) so this is clearly not a U.S. response, but an international mandate. If NK wants to play poker, then lets play poker. There should be a high-level open debate reported in the media about the merits of bombing all suspected nuclear facilities (I believe the number is 3). As part of that debate, openly discuss military responses against NK if they start lobbing shells towards places outside their borders. Let them know that a proactive stance will occur in the very near.
This is not Iraq where we suspected WMD. They are quite proud about their nuclear ambition. NK needs to feel the pressure. Perhaps with enough military posturing, they will fold their hand. If they don’t fold, drop the bombs.
Also, we are currently writing the playbook on Iran. If we screw NK up, Iran will hold all the cards in the future.
natesnake on October 11, 2006 at 9:45 AM
EFG, you are totally right – we do have a little bit of time left. I’m just afraid we’re going to squander it by wasting time with the UN Security Council (who doesn’t have a stellar track record). We have no wiggle room here and cannot afford to make any mistakes. I hope Bush and Co. do the right thing.
pullingmyhairout on October 11, 2006 at 9:54 AM
On a lark, what if someone air-dropped a few million pamphlets over NK that eloquently explained to the NK citizens the reason why they will be bombed back into the stone age by Wednesday next week. Explain why negotiations with their Great Leader has failed. Explain that the decision of one has destroyed the lives of many.
Kim controls the media. The citizens likely have no clue about the gravity of the situation. With any luck, the pamphlets may instigate a rebellion that will oust Kim’s wacked-out ass.
natesnake on October 11, 2006 at 9:54 AM
Are you sure about that? What is the range of those weapons? And haven’t the U.S. troops withdrawn from the DMZ and are now south of Seoul? How far away are they? Might they be out of the North’s artillery range?
With all due respect, those figures seem high. What figures were used? A sustained rate of fire? Or a short term maximum rate of fire, which can’t be maintained? And over 1,000,000 casualties? In two hours? No way.
But let’s assume all of the above is possible, and happens. What next? The North won’t be able to invade and hold. The U.S. and South Koreans have considerable forces south that won’t be hit by this barrage. The North has no airforce worth mentioning. We will control the skies. That dug in artillery will be subjected to counterbattery fire.
And what happens next? After shelling the heck out of the south, what is the gain for the North? All they will have done is made inevitable their being targeted with air and ground forces. This is not their goal.
If the North invades or attacks, it is the end of Kim’s regime. He ain’t gonna do that.
Now if he gets nukes and the ability to deliver them… well then everything becomes much more difficult and dangerous.
EFG on October 11, 2006 at 9:59 AM
North Korea’s military power peaked in the early 1990’s and has declined since due to lack of training and poor material condition of some of their equipment. Still, they are very good with what they do have, and the North has been preparing its people and Army for war with the south for generations. The numbers are significant and given the terrain of the peninsula and close proximity of Seoul and other populated and strategic areas, there will be a huge number of casualties on both sides if fighting broke out. With almost 1.2 million deployed on the border, the North’s quantity of men and material make up for a lack of quality.
The North must know that a resumption of the war would be very dangerous for them. However, significant sanctions would put the regime in real jeopardy and could drive them to do something rash.
The North would eventually be defeated, but the toll will be terrific, especially among the south’s civilian population. The economic impact of basically taking South Korea out of the world economy for a time could be significant as well.
NPP on October 11, 2006 at 10:02 AM
Kim is pushing this event close to the brink based on a history of appeasement to his tantrums.
The problem is should this situation generate enough gravity, it may spin out of a trajectory which he controls, (ie: we strike preemptively) and then people will die for this fruitcake’s narcissistic games.
A conventional attack is the only viable way the Norks can project military power at this time. Their use of atomic weaponry is a pipe dream, or at best, highly limited due to lack of a practicable delivery platform for any nuclear munitions they may actually posses, and, a devise that seems unserviceable, or at the very least unproven and/or ineffective.
If so, the north, attacking from hardened positions with preset FPF dialed into their copious artillery positions will cause massive damage, initially, to SK military, civvies and US military. Our troops stationed there will be a mere speed bump if the Norks attack by this conventional method, and the ROK Marines are tough bastards, REAL tough, but they won’t be able to do much more than slow the north down.
However, due to the dire economic conditions of the state, after the initial onslaught the north will not have the logistical means to sustain a ferocious conventional fight.
So what’s it all mean? They have first punch capability, but not enough wind or the legs to finish the fight. Additionally, the reaction that follows would eliminate the only things that have any meaning to Kim: his choke hold on power; his position as a *player* in the far east neighborhood; his beloved communist state; his military, the coke, hookers and fat privileged life style.
Look for things to slowly cool down. Kim will couch the incident as a win because he, once again, stood down the imperialists. The UN will write a letter calling Kim naughty but sanctions won’t pass. Kim’s evil scientists will take a look at the data from this failed test, throw some of the guys in the development team onto the Death Bus and then roll out Kook Nuke 1.2 in another year or two.
Alden Pyle on October 11, 2006 at 10:03 AM
That relies on the civilian population knowing these facts. Kim keeps a tight grip on what information is passed to the civilians. The time is ripe for an uprising in NK if the civilians become informed.
I don’t think we would be so lucky as to have a bloodless coupe. There would be casualties, but with those casualties we might be able to get the UN Security Council off their worthless asses to commit resources to end the violence (on the side of the rebellion).
The time to do that is now. We run out of options once NK becomes nuclear.
natesnake on October 11, 2006 at 10:10 AM
China and its allies are preparing for the largest conventional war in history. I doubt they will drop nukes. They will try to take out our satellites, diminish our technological advantage and try overrun the Earth like the cockroaches they are. If the Dhims get elected they might not even have to fire a shot.
Hening on October 11, 2006 at 10:13 AM
Good analysis NPP. Quanity has a quality all its own.
Those 1 million troops don’t have far south to go to get into an urban combat situation and they would do serious damage before being slaughtered themselves by the better weapons, tactics, and trainging of the South. The city’s population would stream south to get out of harms way creating a gigantic refugee problem. What a mess. This is the result of Truman’s timidity during the Korean War. He should have finished the job. Unending conflict is the price we pay for “peace.”
Mojave Mark on October 11, 2006 at 10:14 AM
The Israelis did just fine after they bombed Iranian nuclear targets back in the early 1980s.
Hopefully, the threat of bombing nuclear targets is enough for them to disarm. If not, let the surgical strike go through.
We have a problem with the nukes and Kim. We do not have a problem with the NK population. Drop some flyers to give a time and date. Allow the citizens to vacate the area. Drop the bombs.
Sometimes the best solution is the most direct solution.
natesnake on October 11, 2006 at 10:19 AM
Current perception is that China has egg on their face over the situation. They have been active in trying to get NK to back away from their nuclear ambitions.
China is currently experiencing an industrial revolution that would rival what the U.S. experienced at the turn of the twentieth century. Their economy is gaining strength. They are now recognizing the advantages of capitolism. They are not as staunchly communist as they use to be. They are slowly westernizing.
I firmly believe that China would be more apt to diffuse the situation without military intervention. They do not want to risk their economic advances by siding with a lunatic just because he flys the communist flag.
To that point, if military intervention looks imminent, China may covertly overthrow Kim before things come to blows.
natesnake on October 11, 2006 at 10:32 AM
Allah,
I think you’re buying too much into the media’s portrayal of American military attitudes.
From what I hear from literally every service man and woman who protect us, they seem to really think they are doing some good in the world. I agree with em.
BirdEye on October 11, 2006 at 10:53 AM
One of the biggest deterents to the Norks invading south is the generals are not all that sure they would be able to control their troops once they crossed. They would make quick progress initially just because of shear numbers but there is the very real fear that the invasion would stall out at the first grocery store they came across. The initial wave of infantry thrown into the breech would have very poor weapons and little or no ammo. Their job is simply to overwhelm the defenders in the south and force them to use up ammo and resources. Seoul would no doubt suffer a massive artillery barrage and suffer many casualties among the civillian population.
Well the people of the North have been throughly indoctrinated into loving the Dear Leader there are some serious doubts regarding their motivation to continue any kind of offensive going. Anybody who has been to South Korea knows that they are heavily fortified and have significant preparations in place in the event an invasion comes.
Bottom line in my opinion is if the Norks do invade, they will experience early success and may even reach Seoul which is only 35 miles from the DMZ but then the attack will stall out with the South counter attacking and quickly pushing the Norks out of there. Now how far does the South Koreans push is another question.
By the way if North Korea decides to invade will they get UN approval?
And I think all of this merely academic anyway because I don’t think the Norks will do anything, they just realize that winter is coming and they need some heating fuel and food.
LakeRuins on October 11, 2006 at 11:11 AM
Oh yeah and here is a current view of Pyonyang, North Korea, their capital. Now if this is what it looks like on a normal day how much worse could it get? Like I have said elsewhere the South Koreans would have a very limited target list.
LakeRuins on October 11, 2006 at 11:20 AM
AP, you dont really believe that, do you? If you bought the MSM B.S. , I wonder who else is…kim menally Il? This garbage that American forces are too thin is beyond stupid.
Sad-damn misjudged it too. Only Garafalo and similar naysayers claimed “We’re doomed”.
One Trident Sub, or a couple stealth bombers, hell, one Carrier has more power than all of North Korea combined
shooter on October 11, 2006 at 11:49 AM
Shooter,
As someone who’s served on active duty and continues to serve in the reserve, there are segments of the military that are overstretched and have diminished morale. This doesn’t apply to the military as a whole however.
For instance, our ground forces are certifiably overextended. The published data on Army unit readiness confirms this. We will not be able to keep up the current levels of ground force employment more than another couple of years without seriously damaging the readiness, and therefore the capability, of our units.
There is all this talk about “timetables” and “cut and run” but no matter what the situation, we will be forced to reduce our forces in Iraq within one-two years simply because of the realities of the unsustainable ground force employment we’re currently in. Readiness of personnel and equipment is already suffering, which is the primary factor for diminished morale – not fighting and casualties as one would expect.
NPP on October 11, 2006 at 12:10 PM
natesnake, that’s a sure-fire way to get our pilots killed… do you REALLY want to give the NorKs advance notice of when and where we’ll be bombing?
Civilian casualties would be a problem; it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to find out that Jong-Il placed any nuc research centers smack dab in the middle of population centers. Give the people time to relocate (even assuming you get the word to them) and they’ll be able to relocate the research centers.
If we would try to destroy the research centers, be prepared for a LARGE number of civilian casualties (with the resultant crying from the MSM)
dalewalt on October 11, 2006 at 12:26 PM
And they are the sons, daughters, brothers, sisters, cousins, parents of someone in North- or South-Korea.
So true. It takes only a few powerful/influential generals and it’s over. This is exactly what happened in Romania, when the equally ’strong’ and feared Ceausescu fell. There was no indication of it ahead of time, none.
How to work with China is key. She’s not in a war desirous position now, with aspirations for global leadership, the olympics preparations, Taiwan settlement, etc.
Entelechy on October 11, 2006 at 12:40 PM
Allah, we weren’t prepared before, and we aren’t now. I don’t think anybody is prepared for what would likely be a world war. That doesn’t mean we cannot or should not.
Free Constitution on October 11, 2006 at 12:42 PM
Clarification
Herr Morgenholz, my statement, above, was in support of what you wrote (I could have been clearer).
Entelechy on October 11, 2006 at 12:42 PM
Dalewalt,
I’m more a proponent of saber-rattling to see if NK will back down. I think the flyers could insite a revolt. Let the civilians take up arms against Kim.
And if we indeed do bomb the sites, that work could be performed by a long-range missle rather than a conventional fly over. Current perception is that NK’s hardware is old and dated compared to current technology. I think a missle could slip through.
natesnake on October 11, 2006 at 1:43 PM
Is it Just me that thinks the ad below this posting has the answer? “One shot to end this war.”
Mike O on October 11, 2006 at 1:51 PM
“Quantity has a quality all its own.”
My recollection is that Stalin said that.
Gee, isn’t it great playing arm chair general? ;^)
Unless somebody in this thread is quoting from a theater intelligence assessment, my guess that what “we know” about the North is “what the leftwing, lying media, acting in it’s usual anti-American, anti-war mold, wants America to believe, and that we should be quivering in our boots at the thought of war against the invincible legions of the Dear Leader.”
The claim of massive numbers artillery tubes aimed south towards Seoul and the putative rate of fire is apocryphal; at best a claim from the same media that predicted 4 million dead in Afghanistan, 20,000 body bags, in both Iraq and Afghanistan, the “Mother of All Battles” and that “Kuwait would be America’s graveyard.”
In other words, what we take as “gospel” is nothing but leftwing media reguritated pap. And we know that the media’s editors are NEVER on American’s side in war and ALWAYS exaggerate the capabilities of the enemy while belittling our own.
I have no idea what the North Koreans have and neither does, I bet, anybody else outside serving members of the military working the problem of a possible war with North Korea with a top secret clearance, and I would suspect that such are NOT posting that information here.
But this I do know.
This is NOT 1950. Nor is it 1970. We have the best generals and military planners and the most lethal military on the planet. Kim may live in a fantasy world (though I doubt it), but his generals certainly don’t, and they know that South Korea and the United States won’t fight a post 1945-style heavy infantry dominated battle this time as we did in 1950, and that “human wave” tactics of the past when used today mean the slaughter of their troops for no reason.
Everything is different today. Quantity — in Stalin’s vernacular, if not equipped with modern arms and doctrine –is nothing but a collecton of CORPSES, not a path to victory. And Kim’s generals know it. And they have to be in dismay over the knowledge that they have to face the same military that not only repeatedly defeated Soviet proxies, using Soviet Doctrine, but captured Baghdad in 3 weeks, while outnumbered (on paper at least) by 4 to 1.
We fight “joint” now. We didn’t in 1950. With every outing, the ability of the ground pounders to communicate with the rest of the force, to view and respond to the battlespace, to apply precision guided ordinance, to destroy entire formations of the enemy armor without their even firing a shot, and to achieve complete mastery of the air, improves.
If you want to get a sense of what I’m talking about, get a copy of America’s Victories: Why the U.S. Wins Wars and Will Win the War on Terror, by Larry Schweikart, and read it.
If, and I hope this never happens, the Korean War restarts, the same media people who had no idea that we’d quickly defeat “the world’s 4th largest army, on their home turf” and the “Graveyard of Soviet and British Empires,” and the invinicble “Republican Guard- twice in a row” — without twenty thousand or more of KIA — are going to be equally dumbfounded at how war against North Korea will turn out in our favor.
That’s my prediction.
We have pledged that we will defend South Korea. We have the conventional military capable of doing just that. And we have the overwhelming NUCLEAR ability to terminate North Korea should that be required.
The only way we would lose a restarted Korean war, would be if the leftist media succeeds in sabotaging the will to win over time OR if the Democrats control Congress and/or the Presidency.
Another reason for AP and Michelle not sit home on election day.
georgej on October 11, 2006 at 2:11 PM
natesnake, China is not too westernized yet. Their soldiers just killed a number of Tibetean pilgrims, including women and children, who were crossing inot Nepal to visit the Dali Lama. Did it right in front of an international group of mountain climbers. They are NOT Westernized and NEVER to be trusted.
Mike O on October 11, 2006 at 2:50 PM
The best possible solution is if Kim does attack South Korea. Don’t count on that however, he is playing more brinksmanship with the United States, South Korea and Japan but has no intention of entering a loosing war where he will be deposed.
If Kim attacks South Korea his party is over, and quickly. There is no doubt he would defeated almost immediately but unfornately it may be at great cost of life (mostly theirs).
If Kim does attack the United States and allies can remove a mad despot who is determined to disiminate nuclear and ballistic missile technology to anyone and everyone – for a price – and especially if they don’t like the United States. The people of North Korea could be liberated from a self serving dictator in Stalin’s mold and Korea would be reunitied.
China would out way ahead with trade and relations with the prosperiety of a united Korea and not be burned by a dead looser than cannot even feed it’s own people.
omegaram on October 11, 2006 at 7:39 PM
VERY well said, georgej. I’ve been talking to a lot of military types myself lately (and listening to even more), and what I’m hearing from them, and what I’m hearing from the media, and even places like HotAir, are two very different things. I gotta go with the military on this.
We have not even begun to fight with the ferocity with which we’re capable.
techno_barbarian on October 11, 2006 at 10:17 PM
Reread what I said.
I agree that China is not western. The emphasis of my point was that their economic prosperity will likely be the cause of a crack-down on NK.
natesnake on October 12, 2006 at 1:20 PM
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