Paint it black blue: Dems lead by 23 on generic ballot; Update: 79% say GOP played politics with pages’ safety

posted at 4:48 pm on October 9, 2006 by Allahpundit

I don’t care. Not my problem anymore. Not. my. problem.

Unless and until Bush signs the fence bill.

Yeah, I know, “the generic ballot doesn’t mean anything.” Quote:

On the question of which party’s candidate would receive their vote if the election were held today, Democrats held a 23-point lead over Republicans among every type of person questioned — likely voters, registered voters and adults. That’s the largest lead Democrats have held among registered voters since 1978 and a jump from last month’s 48%-48% split among likely voters.

Two new surveys put the Senate at 49-49 with New Jersey and Missouri still in play. One, Rasmussen, had it that way a week ago but with a not-so-minor difference: there were 40 states solidly in the blue column last week and 9 leaning that way.

This week, 42 and 7, respectively. Of the two toss-ups Missouri’s still a tie, according to RCP, but New Jersey is trending Democrat — significantly, if the two latest polls are to be believed. (Which they aren’t, necessarily. One of them’s Zogby.)

The second survey out today is from Election Projection. 49-49 again … plus the two independents who are likely to win their races.

Those independents? Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

51-49, Democrats.

TradeSports had GOP control of the Senate trading at around 75 last week. Today? 67.5 and slipping. GOP control of the House is at the edge of the abyss: 40.0 and trying to hold on.

Is it time?

Update: The RNC has decided to target Tennessee, Ohio, and Missouri with television advertising in hopes of limiting the Democrats’ gains next month.

Update: I shouldn’t bother posting a NYT/CBS poll since people will just dismiss it out of hand. It may be wrong — but it can’t be this wrong:

An overwhelming majority of Americans think House Republican leaders put their own political interests ahead of the safety of congressional pages in their handling of the Mark Foley scandal, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll.

Seventy-nine percent of those polled — including 61 percent of Republicans — say GOP leaders were more concerned with politics than the well-being of the teenage pages.

The good news? In the Times poll, the GOP trails by “only” 14 on the generic ballot.

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And they think this is all about Foley….

Valiant on October 9, 2006 at 4:54 PM

TIME Monday, Dec. 1, 1980

For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was “too close to call.” A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.

But when the votes were counted, the former California Governor had defeated Carter by a margin of 51% to 41% in the popular vote—a rout for a U.S. presidential race. In the electoral college, the Reagan victory was a 10-to-l avalanche that left the President holding only six states and the District of Columbia.

No, I’m not predicting a landslide for the GOP.
Just saying polls don’t overly impress me.
I’m too old to be spooked by journo-political “science”.
Especially so when divisive personalities and/or events are in play.

Stephen M on October 9, 2006 at 5:05 PM

How badly do Bush and the RNC want to lose? This badly.

Alex K on October 9, 2006 at 5:12 PM

Hastert’s resignation won’t cause Bush to sign the bill for the fence. And to be fair, if that is a hot button issue with you, then it should be noted that the House, under Hastert’s leadership, passed a much stronger bill that the conservative base favored.

I’ll be just as inclined to sit it out if the Republicans puss out and offer up Hastert as a sacrifice to appease Pelosi and her NAMBLA supporters as I will if Bush doesn’t sign the fence bill.

thirteen28 on October 9, 2006 at 5:16 PM

The Democrats are the Whigs. The Republicans have become what the Democrats used to be. We’re all left out in the cold.

However, I find that 23% number rather dubious. I would never imagine that much of a margin for the Whigs Democrats.

SouthernGent on October 9, 2006 at 5:18 PM

You can always add a few points to the generic polls for the GOP because the polling is conducted mainly in Manhattan, Boston, and Hollywood. Twenty-three points is way outside the left-wing bias margin of error. Bush is an anchor to the House in 2008 like Clinton in 1994.

Valiant on October 9, 2006 at 5:22 PM

>it should be noted that the House, under Hastert’s leadership, passed a much stronger bill that the conservative base favored.

And then they reneged on it last week. While trying to trick people into thinking it was still going through. See Kaus.

Alex K on October 9, 2006 at 5:28 PM

An interesting article on this from Investor’s Business Daily:

How sad the Foley scandal has sucked all the air out of the debate over the nation’s future. How tragic that many will now sit this election out for all the wrong reasons. When they wake up to find their taxes raised, the economy stumbling and their incomes falling behind, they’ll regret their lassitude. But then it will be too late.

We’re letting the Dhimmicrats win!

NTWR on October 9, 2006 at 5:39 PM

They said the decision has caused friction with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which historically has been the only party entity to run commercials on behalf of its candidates.

No wonder the Republican candidates for the Senate have been doing so badly! It is about time the RNC takes over.

januarius on October 9, 2006 at 5:49 PM

“Then it will be too late” – what, we’ll never have another election?

The good news for me is that a “protest vote” is to vote against detestable scumbag Jim Moran (D-VA).

The bad news is that Moran’s district is as safe as can be, so it just doesn’t matter.

Lehuster on October 9, 2006 at 6:00 PM

If you read the article… by “too late” it means too late to keep the tax cuts that have helped so much, too late to stop Pelosi from doing what she has said she would do and more. Here:

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has been all over the place talking about what Democrats will do after they win Nov. 7. But it’s hard to take her seriously when she promises to “jump-start our economy and reform our economic policy . . . to address the needs of working families.”

Huh?

“Jump-start the economy”? That’s what President Bush did in 2003, when he pushed through bold, broad tax cuts to end a slump that began in 2000 under a Democratic administration.

Since the cuts took effect, the economy has added $1.26 trillion in real output, $14.4 trillion in net wealth and 5.8 million new jobs, while productivity has grown 10% and business investment 24%. Since 2000, total consumer spending has risen $1 trillion — nearly $8,000 per household — after adjusting for inflation. The Dow Jones industrial average is hitting new highs.

Then there’s the budget deficit, which the Congressional Budget Office reckons will come in around $250 billion. By our calculations, that’s about 1.9% of total output. In early 2004, when Bush vowed to halve the shortfall, it stood at 3.6% of GDP.

The fact is — and we’re dealing with facts here, not fantasies — this economy has done better than anyone expected, especially given the mammoth hits it took in the months just before and after Bush took over in January 2001. Democrats know this full well, despite their rhetoric.

What do the Democrats promise to do about all this prosperity? They’ll let the tax cuts lapse, socking millions with billions of dollars in higher levies. They’ll raise the minimum wage, hurting the working poor and those with the fewest skills and the least education. And they’ll extend jobless benefits, a move that in the past has kept unemployment high (but which today, at 4.6%, is below the average of the last 40 years).

They’ll also try to impose new regulations across the economy on everything from energy to broadband, punishing industries they don’t like and subsidizing those they do.

Worst of all, they’ll do nothing — absolutely nothing — to stop the growth in entitlement spending that will start to engulf the treasury beginning in 2009. Their solution as always: more taxes.

And this is just what they’ll admit to. Who knows what else is in store.

We may never have another election in which all the voters are supposed to be legal citizens.

NTWR on October 9, 2006 at 6:11 PM

I remember the exit polls in the 2004 election. President Kerry had won by all accounts, but then as the day went on the Dubya train just couldn’t be stopped. I think the Vichy-Americans may well pick up lots of seats but I’m not predicting a takeover in either the House or Senate. Even the seat pick-up will be viewed as a moral victory for the Dems. The Republican elitists better get their heads out of the sand (to put it mildly) and get back to true conservatism.

Mojave Mark on October 9, 2006 at 6:15 PM

Really all I can say at this point is….meh. Who cares? The ironic thing is that the Republicans are going to lose big in this election because they’ve spent the last few years trying to appease people outside their base. They are going to get what they deserve.

*shrug*

Benaiah on October 9, 2006 at 6:31 PM

If the Dems are supposed to be ahead by 23 points today, then it is a good thing the election is not today. There are still 4 weeks to go. Lots can happen in that amount of time, such as rogue nations conducting nuclear weapon tests…oh wait a minute. Was the polling done before or after the news from North Korea? Perhaps polls done today will have a different result when people realize there are issues more critical to this country than some perv congressman’s suggestive IMs.

Mallard T. Drake on October 9, 2006 at 6:35 PM

My fear is that if the Republicans do lose control of the House and Senate (which I think will happen, but by smaller margins than most are predicting), the GOP will chalk it up to Rep. Strangelove instead of learning the real lesson: stop ignoring your base.

Slublog on October 9, 2006 at 7:24 PM

I’ve rarely seen Mark Steyn as disgusted as he is over the page scandal. Stand back, lest your hair be singed.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/steyn/87789,CST-EDT-STEYN08.article

Kralizec on October 9, 2006 at 10:47 PM

Yes, I think that this was a planned attack against the GOP(somebody knew something sometime before and sat on it for political advantage), but the planning couldn’t be worse. Look at the evidence we all know and the timing of it all…think about the memory of the average American. The halflife of most stories put out by the MSM are so short, the next ‘big story’ will have the press dancing like drunken monkeys to Karl Rove’s symphony in the key of G(OP).
Remember, the mind of America ( the normal nine-to-fiver ) will forget about Foley. We here, mostly conservatives (associated with the GOP) know the fight. I do believe there still is an ‘October Surprise’ as the dems have speculated. Mr Rove is a political genius.
Yes I am disappointed with the GOP’s perfomance in our congress, but there is no way I am going to serve power over the enemy because our political leaders have become numb to our needs. Get them in office and make them work. We have the power, collectively, to make that happen. Maybe this time around, with everyone working in unison, we can pressure our political reps to work for what is right. After we win on November, let us all make a difference. Bombard our senators and congressmen/women with every type of communication known by man/woman. Do not ever give up. Believe….Freedom is our common cause

This is not a time to give up, but a time to fight. For us to loose is not an option. Second plave here means giving up. If you decide not to vote, or ( sorry AP ) vote for the enemy, do not complain to me when our days are darker.

lsutiger on October 9, 2006 at 10:54 PM

The Democrats are the Whigs. The Republicans have become what the Democrats used to be. We’re all left out in the cold.

SouthernGent on October 9, 2006 at 5:18 PM

I’m not sure I get the Whig reference? Is your meaning the Ds are a party that has outlived its usefulness or relevance? If so, I would question your comparision, the Whigs joined with the abolishionists to form the R party if I am remembering my history correctly. So the Whigs evolved as it were. Not a bad thing in a political party.

(It’s entirely possible I have this wrong, any serious study of American history was many moons ago for me!!)

honora on October 10, 2006 at 11:27 AM

I’m with Bill Bennett on this whole issue of conservative ennui;

Election Day & Staying Home [Bill Bennett]

Okay, look. Now is the time for all good men—and women—to come to the aid of the party.

In 1960, Barry Goldwater famously shouted, “Grow Up Conservatives.” It took 20 years for that call to be heeded, and we got the expanded, entrenched Welfare State, a disastrous & humilitaing foreign policy in the meantime; and Ronald Reagan’s presidency was about attempting to roll back those 20 years as much as moving forward on a positive agenda.

Look, if you want John Paul Stevens replaced on the Supreme Court with a carbon copy, pro-choice, pro-racial preferences Justice, stay home.

If you want Donald Rumsfeld hauled before Congress every week justifying the war rather than fighting it, stay home.

If you want spending to increase even above the levels you are unhappy with now, stay home.

If you want Henry Waxman holding hearings on every aspect of the administration’s actions, stay home.

If you want to see the war in Iraq defunded to the point of withdrawal so that the worst elements in Iraq take over and a repeat of the helicopters-fleeing-Saigon-type-images come back all over again, signaling a decade-long disrespect and doubt of American power, stay home.

If you want to keep the border unsealed, stay home.

The stakes are large, we can’t afford twenty years, we can’t afford two years of this. If you want a change in your Congressional leadership, fine, wait until you have the election, then demand it, with a new GOP speaker and majority leader if you want…but let me tell you, a new minority leader and a new minority whip will not get you much, it won’t get you anything.

Two years ago we sent a message by reelecting the President, have things fallen so hard since then that we can’t muster those numbers again and see that the good should not be traded in for the bad? You want to rue a day? You will rue a day with John Conyers as head of the House Judiciary and Pat Leahy as head of the Senate Judiciary. Don’t do it. Please don’t do it.
Posted at 6:35 AM

Terp Mole on October 10, 2006 at 1:14 PM