Report: North Korea tests nuke; Update: Yield of only 550 tons of TNT? Update: 5-15 kilotons, says Russia
posted at 10:49 pm on October 8, 2006 by Allahpundit
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Just breaking on Fox, according to South Korean government officials. Standby.
Update: U.S. intel can’t confirm yet.
Update: NK’s official news agency claims the test was successful. Of course, they would.
Update: Looks like the Telegraph was a little wide of the mark with this nugget from earlier today:
Russian military officials in Pyongyang say they have received information that North Korea intends to give the US up to three months to lift financial sanctions imposed last year and to begin negotiations before carrying out its threat. “If Americans don’t start bilateral dialogue with Pyongyang and lift sanctions, then Kim Jong-il is expected to give the order to carry on with the test, most likely in the second half of December or early January,” one official said.
The army wanted a test as soon as possible — to spite China, according to Reuters’s sources.
The Russian officials claim that the bomb has a 20-kiloton yield, similar to the one used on Nagasaki, and would be capable of killing 200,000 people.
As for the new South Korean UN Secretary-General, early indications are that he’s an empty suit. Which might not be a bad thing, come to think of it.
Update: The U.S. Geological Survey has detected no seismic activitiy, but that’s not necessarily proof that a test didn’t happen.
Update: Uh oh:
In Seoul a foreign ministry spokesman said South Korea’s intelligence agency has detected a 3.58-magnitude seismic tremor, following North Korea’s announcement of a nuclear test.
Update: South Korean markets plummet. North Korean markets? No such thing.
Update: Bizarre — Fox says the U.S. Geological Survey is reporting no seismic activity in North Korea. That South Korean readings have to be more accurate due to proximity, don’t they? U.S. defense officials also say there’s no confirmation of a test.
Update: The South Korean military is still at normal alert.
Update: CNN says that the U.S. military still hasn’t confirmed there was a test, but they believe the reports are true.
Update: The U.S. Geological Survey is telling Fox that “some seismic activity” data is coming in now. Official word expected within the next half hour.
Update: ABC keeps its priorities straight.
Update: Fox is reporting that China got a heads-up from NK 20 minutes before the test. South Korean President Roh has, naturally enough, convened an emergency cabinet meeting.
Update: Silver lining(?): This will probably make it easier for us to get China and Russia to agree to sanctions on Iran. One lunatic with nukes is enough.
Update: The South Korean military has now raised its alert level, according to Fox.
Update: Here’s the seismic data page at the U.S. Geographical Survey website. Lots of blips there right now, including on this graph taken at Inchon in the south:
Update: A senior Bush official tells Bret Baier of Fox News that a test probably occurred, although supposedly the NorKs were shooting for a 400-kiloton explosion and that doesn’t jibe with a 3.5 Richter reading.
Update: The typically freaky-deaky official North Korean announcement:
“The field of scientific research in the DPRK successfully conducted an underground nuclear test under secure conditions on October 9, 2006, at a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great, prosperous, powerful socialist nation.
“It has been confirmed that there was no such danger as radioactive emission in the course of the nuclear test as it was carried out under scientific consideration and careful calculation.
“The nuclear test was conducted with indigenous wisdom and technology 100 percent. It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability.
“It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it.”
Update: I question the timing: New Japanese PM Shinzo Abe is in Seoul right now for pre-planned talks.
Update: Supposedly Aussie PM John Howard has confirmed that the test took place. Fox reported that but I’m looking for a link.
Update: China has issued a formal statement “opposing” the test according to Fox.
Update: The U.S. Geological Survey confirms: they detected a 4.2 tremor on the peninsula.
Update: Food for thought, via Bob Owens of Confederate Yankee and the Freepers: How would we know the difference between a nuke test and a detonation of several thousand tons of conventional explosives? The NorKs are claiming there’s been no leakage from the underground site so presumably there’s no radiation signature for us to detect. How many tons of explosives would it take to generate a 4.2 tremor? Is that even possible with regular ordnance?
Update: Here’s the USGS page reporting the “earthquake” in North Korea. Metaphorically accurate, if not literally. Note the depth of “0 miles.”
Update: Dorkafork points to this … worrisome op-ed by one of Kim’s lackeys that was published a few days ago in the Asia Times. Quote: “Unlike all the previous wars Korea fought, a next war will be better called the American War or the DPRK-US War because the main theater will be the continental US, with major cities transformed into towering infernos.” It’s worth noting that the Russian officials who spoke to the Telegraph claim that the NorK weapon couldn’t be delivered by missile. Yet.
Update: WaPo says the U.S. Navy might be ready to set up a little makeshift customs operation off the North Korean coast:
U.S. intelligence sources said the Bush administration is talking about immediate naval action around North Korea. “This won’t exactly be a blockade, which is an act of war. But we could stop and inspect all ships in and out of North Korea,” one senior US government official said.
The Security Council will hold an emergency meeting later this morning.
Update: The Age newspaper is now saying that the Australia hasn’t confirmed the test.
Update: James Rosen of Fox News says the U.S. will call for a resolution barring any transfer of WMD or missile technology to NK and limiting trade — but not barring Chinese oil shipments to NK.
Update: Dorkafork points to this page as evidence that a 1kt bomb would generate a 4.0 tremor. One thousand tons of conventional explosives. Seems possible. Also, have a look at this page about U.S. tests to generate a nuclear-sized explosion with standard ordnance.
On the other hand, as I write this Fox is reporting that U.S. intel believes it’s “likely” the test happened — although they think the NorKs didn’t get quite as big a bang as they had intended.
Update: Fox reports that SK President Roh will be phoning Bush shortly. The White House will issue a statement overnight as well as another one tomorrow.
Update: The DUers are having armageddon sex. Alas, I’ve yet to receive my Japanese Fembot.
Update: I saw this report a few minutes ago at FR but dismissed it. Now Fox has a teaser up about it. Could the yield really have been only 550 tons of TNT? That’s half a kiloton. Compare and contrast:
The Boeing 767 and Boeing 757 that slammed into the WTC were carrying a combined total of about 200,000 pounds of jet fuel, and the combined power of the explosions was about 1,000 tons of TNT, a kiloton.
550 tons is an awfully small explosion, relatively speaking. Are we sure this was nuclear?
Update: Fox quotes U.S. intel officials as saying it was “more fizz than pop.”
Update: Haven’t watched it yet, but Karol says this documentary, called “Welcome to North Korea,” captures the oddness of the hermit kingdom like nothing else she’s ever seen or read.
Update: Mary K says the cover of Time’s new issue looks stupid now.
Update: Megyn Kendall is reporting on Fox that Russia’s defense minister has confirmed it was a nuclear test.
Update: By way of comparison, this page, quoting a British newspaper, says the collapse of the North Tower on 9/11 generated a 2.9 tremor on the Richter scale.
Update: The Russians estimate the yield at between 5 and 15 kilotons, which puts it in the ballpark of the Hiroshima bomb (12.5). Captain Ed is skeptical, as am I, although logically it makes more sense for the U.S. and South Korea to want the underplay the success of the test than for the Russians to want to overplay it.
Update: Think about this, too. The Soviet Union once tested a bomb with a 50-megaton yield. That’s equivalent to 50 million tons of conventional explosives. Supposedly that test generated a tremor of 7.0 on the Richter scale; would a test of 550 tons then generate a 4.2?
Update: A reader e-mails:
A 7.0 event is 1000 times more powerful than a 4.0 event (the Richter scale is base-10 logrithmic — think of the numbers as powers of 10). And the 50 megaton trial was atmospheric — which would dissipate much of the explosive shock and thus reduce the seismic signature.
The latter point makes sense, but the former doesn’t. 7.0 is a thousand times more powerful than 4.0, but the explosive yield in the Soviet bomb was 90,000 times what the NorK bomb was supposed to be. Assuming the NorK bomb was, as Russia insists, 15 kilotons, then the Soviet bomb yield was 3,300 times greater. That makes more sense, especially if the effect in the Soviet bomb was muted by the atmospheric nature of the test.
Update: Is another test coming? Maybe, according to South Korean media.
Update: New updates will appear in this thread.
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Well that changes everything.
Christoph on October 8, 2006 at 10:58 PM
Sweet.
Stankleberry on October 8, 2006 at 11:05 PM
Hmmm just a few hours ago I thought there was a backdown. This isnt good but South Korea’s tact the past few years has helped embolden the mini-tyrant. The plane we launched on Thursday will help tell the truth.
It is that “little-man” thing isnt it? Napoleon, Hitler, Ahmadinijad, Il..that is it isnt it? Little men, big nukes. How comforting *sigh*
labwrs on October 8, 2006 at 11:05 PM
South Korean media are reporting that it happened, though the SK gov’t is declining comment.
It looks like we’ll know for sure in short order.
Pablo on October 8, 2006 at 11:08 PM
Durka Durka, where’s Team America?
Seriously though, your move Dubya. Choose wisely.
RightWinged on October 8, 2006 at 11:09 PM
We should launch simultaneous nuclear strikes against China, Russia, Japan, Finland, Equador, and Vermont and get it over with right now.
Christoph on October 8, 2006 at 11:09 PM
Aye … talk about prophetic http://tinyurl.com/rspd2 (NYT)
LissaKay on October 8, 2006 at 11:09 PM
If anyone is interested in Drudge’s coverage, check out Drudge Radio’s internet stream http://www.wabcradio.com/
RightWinged on October 8, 2006 at 11:10 PM
Well, let’s see what the dems have to say. Uhm…Rumsfeld should resign and be shot. Rice should resign and be hung, and Bush should resign, and be shot, hung, and burned, and scattered over the Rio Grande, because Kim Jung Mentally Ill just tested a nuke that Bill Clinton all but gave to them. Please oh please, someone call John Kerry to save us. He served in Vietnam in the Navy and he’ll know exactly what to do. Sorry for the sarcasm; this just depresses because I know the press will use orgami to make this the Republicans fault.
austinnelly on October 8, 2006 at 11:11 PM
What? WTF are you talking about? First of all, I’m in VT. We may have some a-hole politicians up here, but why would you stike us?
RightWinged on October 8, 2006 at 11:12 PM
According to this, the SK’s say they detected a 3.58 tremor.
Looks like they did it.
Pablo on October 8, 2006 at 11:12 PM
Uhh … faster, please.
LissaKay on October 8, 2006 at 11:14 PM
oh, I also want to be first to say (which I already kind of did in my post on this) “I question the timing”. Always gotta beat the conspiracy nuts (aka the American left) to the punch. As soon as this broke, Drudge was getting flashed/IMed that this was orchestrated by Rove. Pretty obvious it was. After the Foley scandal, gotta save the election somehow, right. Expect Rove to release a UBL video soon too.
RightWinged on October 8, 2006 at 11:16 PM
RightWinged… it was a joke. Very dark humor. Someone somewhere will call for nuking North Korea because Lord knows I’m thinking about it… so, to put things in perspective, a list of countries and possible escalation showing that maybe this isn’t wise.
But on the other hand…
Good link to Drudge. It’s a good conversation if anyone wants to listen.
DRUDGE LIVE AUDIO NOW
Christoph on October 8, 2006 at 11:20 PM
I wonder if members of the Clinton administration are toasting their achievements tonight?
TexasRainmaker on October 8, 2006 at 11:20 PM
I will be interested to see how Japan reacts. It’s obvious the U.S. won’t do diddly-squat.
Is Madeleine Albright able to sleep at night?
SouthernGent on October 8, 2006 at 11:21 PM
As to the timing:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/06/AR2006100601382.html?nav=rss_print/outlook
It’s the 9th there now, but just sayin’
infidel4life on October 8, 2006 at 11:22 PM
Glad to hear it… I didn’t get it, and I thought we were being lumped in with those other countries you listed, some of which I actually consider to be enemies of our country. But yes, folks should flip on Drudge Radio. It’s on a lot of AM talk stations and their internet streams. I like to use WABC Radio personally.
RightWinged on October 8, 2006 at 11:23 PM
The U.S. Geological Survey reports NO tremors of any sort according to FOX this evening. Is this an imaginary test?
hmmm
johnnyU on October 8, 2006 at 11:25 PM
Nobody’s nuking the People’s Republic Of Vermont until sanctions run their course. Just keep that maple syrup flowing, and no one gets hurt. ;)
Kid from Brooklyn on October 8, 2006 at 11:27 PM
Oh, but remember, they are refining Uranium for electrical power…. mmm hmmmm…yeah ok.
johnnyU on October 8, 2006 at 11:28 PM
*LOL* I just had some of that on my waffle this morning..NO NUKING VERMONT! :)
Always pithy that Kid from Brooklyn (whose stinkin’ Mets are going DOWN! )
labwrs on October 8, 2006 at 11:32 PM
Given that both China and Japan have aligned themselves against this, I’d be very careful if I were Kim Jung Il. Of course, we know he isn’t sane or careful.
Let China deal with this, it’s their neighbor and China has nukes already.
Time will tell whether he did it or is blowing smoke.
LewWaters on October 8, 2006 at 11:32 PM
Perhaps the plan is to miss just a little to the north and take out Montreal.
infidel4life on October 8, 2006 at 11:32 PM
China ain’t going to diddly squat about their crazy communist ally goading the U.S. and dividing United States military resources.
Not… now that they’re afraid of nukes going off at, on, or past their border.
Christoph on October 8, 2006 at 11:33 PM
Barbara Starr on CNN says it’s confirmed…ruh-roh!
SouthernGent on October 8, 2006 at 11:34 PM
Now the USGS is saying they’re seeing activity..not confirmed yet, but they’ll confirm soon.
Pablo on October 8, 2006 at 11:37 PM
FOX NEWS is now saying (1136 pm eastern time) US GEOlogical SUrvey is now seeing seizmic data.
johnnyU on October 8, 2006 at 11:37 PM
After the embarassment the Sox turned in to after the All Star break I don’t even care anymore… Assuming the Yanks had gone to the Series, I wanted to see the Mets go too and beat them… but obviously that’s out.
RightWinged on October 8, 2006 at 11:39 PM
Do you know how many hot ready and eager French-speaking babes their are in Montreal, infidel?
As Sir Galahad said to Lancelot in Monty Python and the Holy Grail:
“I bet you’re gay!”
Christoph on October 8, 2006 at 11:43 PM
Guinevere would disagree.
;-)
infidel4life on October 8, 2006 at 11:51 PM
Does anyone have a link to the South Korean and USGS confirmation of seismic activity?
Christoph on October 8, 2006 at 11:52 PM
North Korea just couldn’t stand it that Iran was getting all the press - had to outdo them didn’t ya?
Rick on October 8, 2006 at 11:56 PM
I think Kimmie has a potential buyer that wouldn’t shell out the gold bars until he proved the nukes efficacy.
If this test is real and successful we better have an embargo/blockade in place or there will be loose nukes in who knows whose backyard.
I don’t expect the UN to do squat, again, or if they do anything at all, it will fail.
It’s long past time to pull up the buses in front of the UN building and take the whole parasitic bunch to the airport.
Speakup on October 8, 2006 at 11:59 PM
Reports coming in that Jong Il was forced in to this after repeated IMs from MAF54 saying he’d like to slip off his boxers….. and giant glasses.
RightWinged on October 9, 2006 at 12:01 AM
Well, better go have some fun with the wife while I can.
Editor on October 9, 2006 at 12:01 AM
I second that. Of course that’s if by “have some fun with the wife” you mean “smoke a cigarette you bummed from your brother, even though you quit, after a stressful day chasing toddlers around at my niece’s birthday party”.
RightWinged on October 9, 2006 at 12:06 AM
It’s real:
hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/K/KOREAS_NUCLEAR?SITE=MAQUI&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=newsOne&storyID=2006-10-09T034535Z_01_L08141538_RTRUKOC_0_US-KOREA-NORTH.xml&WTmodLoc=Home-C1-TopStories-newsOne-3
Christoph on October 9, 2006 at 12:06 AM
2his piece by NK’s unofficial spokesman from a couple of days ago is extremely worrisome in light of recent developments.
dorkafork on October 9, 2006 at 12:12 AM
Before I crash, what does everyone think is our possible response and what you actually think should be our response.
RightWinged on October 9, 2006 at 12:18 AM
Subpoena Madeleine Albright first and foremost.
Then we should take out Iran’s nuke plants.
Then we should take out N. Korea’s government.
SouthernGent on October 9, 2006 at 12:25 AM
Nuclear
Christoph on October 9, 2006 at 12:25 AM
Now we have an arms race in Asia… Japan will go nuclear for sure. I would. They will.
Taiwan will want to, but it will be much harder.
How this helps China, I’m not sure. But it weakens the U.S. and maybe that’s enough.
It sure as hell helps Iran.
Christoph on October 9, 2006 at 12:27 AM
Thanks, Madeleine Albright!
SouthernGent on October 9, 2006 at 12:27 AM
Didn’t Bush promise that the world’s worst regimes would not be allowed to acquire the world’s worst weapons?
It’s time for Bush to shit or get off the pot.
infidel4life on October 9, 2006 at 12:31 AM
Before I crash, what does everyone think is our possible response and what you actually think should be our response.
*crickets chirping*
Seriously. Kim wants a reaction. We should not accomodate him. Insane he may be, but surely he realizes that a nuclear strike against anyone, most especially the US, will result in immediate, swift and utter destruction of NoKo. He might get in the equivalent of a kick in the shins to us, but we are not talking about M.A.D. To launch against anyone is suicide.
From beautiful downtown Atomic City … good night, sleep tight.
LissaKay on October 9, 2006 at 12:32 AM
Bingo:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/130_40.php
infidel4life on October 9, 2006 at 12:33 AM
Interestingly I just heard an analyst (or something, didn’t turn to the TV, just listened) say that this actually humiliates China, further isolating themselves and (I think he said) we’ll likely be destroying NK’s economy immediately.
I agree 100%, however if he’s not “on the pot”, who would be? Clinton spent to much time on the pot and in the humidor, which left us with a nukular NK, and I doubt John Kerry reporting for duty would have been able to do anything, unless we’re talking about giving them money to keep them happy.
RightWinged on October 9, 2006 at 12:40 AM
Ha…CNN (International) is ALREADY blaming the Bush administration. Geez…
SouthernGent on October 9, 2006 at 12:40 AM
Another screen cap for to grab you AP, check out the priorities at the Huffington Post. Giant Foley and Hastert pictures above giant text: GOP REP SAW FOLEY MESSAGES 6 YEARS AGO… linking to WAPO.
RightWinged on October 9, 2006 at 12:44 AM
DU is upset that Fox News referred to NK as an “axis of evil” nation. HOW DARE THEY!
RightWinged on October 9, 2006 at 12:46 AM
Rove is a genius.
Iblis on October 9, 2006 at 12:50 AM
How many tons of explosives would it take to generate a 4.2 tremor? Is that even possible with regular ordnance?
Most sources I’ve seen give similar values to this: 4.0 on the Richter would come from a 1 KT (kiloton) bomb. And the kiloton is a direct reference to the number of tons of TNT equivalent. So 2 million pounds of TNT could do it.
dorkafork on October 9, 2006 at 12:51 AM
1000 tons. I got ahead of myself and did the conversion.
dorkafork on October 9, 2006 at 12:52 AM
When I go to my personalized Google homepage I have an add on to earth quake activity in the Pacific and the world.
From North Korea:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/130_40.php
ar_basin on October 9, 2006 at 1:01 AM
Correct, it is due West of Kilju City.
http://www.lonelyplanet.com/mapshells/north_east_asia/north_korea/north_korea.htm
ar_basin on October 9, 2006 at 1:05 AM
This is like passing gas in one of those Japanese apartments with paper walls: the whole world detects it!
With the potential for a NK-Iran axis, now who is the deranged idiot who wants to vote for those uniform-blind guys?
Ropera on October 9, 2006 at 1:12 AM
Now that I look at it, it’s probably 2000+ tons. The Richter scale isn’t linear. A 4.5 is 5.6 KT and a 5.0 is 32 KT. It’s a little late for me to go through the math, but I’d guess a 4.2 would be in the 2 to 3 KT range.
dorkafork on October 9, 2006 at 1:13 AM
I don’t think the North Korean nuclear test is the big story tonight.
I think it’s a ruse. I believe it is a distraction.
Charles Johnson at Little Green Footballs posted a story tonight that I consider bigger: a possible attack on the home of English-speaking civilization?
Britain, i.e., London.
Report: UK Metro Police Chief Issues Ominous Warning
It’s speculative so don’t take your eye or thoughts off of North Korea and Japan, but consider it in context. It may be part of a larger plan.
[also posted under a newer thread]
Christoph on October 9, 2006 at 1:21 AM
Technical details about seismic signature of nuclear detonation, and detecting same.
http://www.iris.iris.edu/HQ/Bluebook/chapter2.dandi.html
http://www.iris.edu/news/IRISnewsletter/fallnews/political.html
It will be interesting to see how much detail is made public by western intelligence analysts.
rockhauler on October 9, 2006 at 1:39 AM
You’re so ronery, so ronery. Poor rittle you.
marykatharine on October 9, 2006 at 2:03 AM
Bush has had 6 years to deal with this problem and you are still blaming Clinton. This is one more nail in the Republican’s coffin. They daily prove they are incapable of keeping America safe.
Vanya on October 9, 2006 at 2:54 AM
“Congressman Furley? Who’s he? I’m voting Republican” Thank you Little Kim.
bdfaith on October 9, 2006 at 3:11 AM
*Yawn* No need to flop around like fish out of water. The news report said 550 tons of TNT. What’s the shock wave yield on a daisy cutter?
It’s best if everyone, including the regional powers, keep their panties held tightly.
I suspect that if I had 550 tons of TNT detonate near me, I’d be quite unhappy at the results; but as far as nukes go, this is a fart in the wind. Even 1 -2 KT is most likely what I’d call a fizzle instead of a successful test.
Don’t forget, that their missile firings were also “successful” no matter how many pieces smacked into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan at uncontrolled velocity.
The jury is still out on the “success.”
American_Jihadist on October 9, 2006 at 5:03 AM
The anchor on CNN - British guy from CNN International - just suggested that this may be Washington’s fault for not talking directly with North Korea.
Damn. Everything’s our fault.
nailinmyeye on October 9, 2006 at 5:35 AM
Two points to make.
1. ABC and Brian Ross will, no doubt, try to keep Foley on the “front page.” But, Ross (and his boss Halprin) are democratic activist assholes.
2. The smallest nuke we ever made was the Davey Crockett, with the W54 warhead, fission, implosion type, generating between .01KT (or 10 tons) of TNT (or about 3x the power of McVeigh’s truck bomb), up to .022KT (22 KT) based upon actual tests in the early 60’s.
So, it is possible that the NKs detonated a nuke. If so, it would be a “pop” and not a “KA-BOOM”, and, no doubt, Kim wanted a KA-BOOM.
If it wasn’t a nuke, their fields next spring might not be growing crops because there’s no more fertilizer and their trucks will be parked due to lack of diesel, ’cause Kim’ll be lying to the world.
Prediction: If it was a nuke, it’s possible that Kim will allow experts to examine the site to confirm it. Because a “pop” won’t generate the publicity and “respect” unless the world believes that it was a nuclear weapon.
georgej on October 9, 2006 at 5:46 AM
This is all Karl Rove’s fault to take Foley out of the picture. He conspired with the gargoyle.
iNeXuS on October 9, 2006 at 6:24 AM
It’s also possible what they tested wasn’t a nuke bomb but the fusing device for a thermonuclear bomb, which would be just about the effect that we have witnessed.
Also can you hear the auctioneer yet, he didn’t need a big bang to prove to any potential buyers that he has working material. So what if his bomb design suck wind? I can hear a whole lot of Arabs bidding on their first fix right now.
Can anyone say “Suicide bomb sized detonation”
Anyone who thinks that we can sanction or negotiate NK into compliance is clueless.
I can clearly see the armistices coming to an end soon.
AZPatriot on October 9, 2006 at 7:54 AM
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