North Korea nuke test
posted at 11:14 am on October 6, 2006 by Bryan
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The North Korean military is rallying to Kim Jong-Il. Diplomacy is stirring to stop its nuclear test, which may come off this weekend. But China refuses to stop North Korea from testing a nuclear weapon (h/t Austin Bay):
WHILE the rest of the world looks to Beijing to stop North Korea from exploding a nuclear bomb, a leading Chinese analyst says it is too late - China cannot act without doing worse harm to its own interests.
“Basically, our country’s work of persuasion with the (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) in the 12 years that the DPRK developed its nuclear program had been a failure,” writes highly regarded Shen Dingli, of Shanghai’s Fudan University.
That work of “persuasion” never quite got around to Beijing cutting off North Korea’s fuel and food supplies. It never quite got around to any sort of threat and never quite got around to any real cooperation with the US, Japan and South Korea. It never quite got around to being serious.
Beijing seems to find the North Korean nuclear program to be a useful headache. It has already divided the US and South Korea, and kept US interests in the region in check. Along with Iraq and Afghanistan and Iran, NK’s nuclear program is one more thing to tax our leadership and resolve. And by continuing to provide fuel and food, China staves off the inevitable collapse of Kim’s regime, a collapse that would lead to a massive humanitarian crisis that China would have to cope with directly.
And then there’s the usefulness of North Korea going nuclear, helpfully explained by Pyongyang’s “unofficial” spokesman Kim Myong Chol:
The third message is that the nuclear-armed North Korea will be a major boon to China and Russia. Nuclear-armed, the two countries are friendless in case of war with the US. The US has nuclear-armed allies, such as the UK and France. The Americans have a network of military bases around the two countries, while they have none. The presence of a mighty nuclear weapons state in Korea should be most welcome to Russia and China.
The People’s Republic of China has every reason to welcome a nuclear-armed North Korea, whatever it may say in public. The nuclear deterrence of North Korea is a major factor in reducing US military pressure on China on the question of the independence of Taiwan.
The fourth point is that the North Korea government of Kim does not care at all whether Japan goes nuclear, or that South Korea and Australia follow suit. In the first place, those countries are practically nuclear-armed because they are under the nuclear umbrella of the US and house American nuclear bases and because Tokyo’s military spending is 10 times that of Pyongyang’s and Seoul’s defense budget is five times that of Pyongyang’s. It is too obvious that they are capable of acquiring nuclear weapons at short notice.
Read the whole thing. It’s very entertaining. Mr. Kim threatens to incinerate the US with nuclear weapons, and then does what any savvy enemy would do, pressing clippings from our own media into his service. If he worked a little harder he could find plenty of Democrats offering helpful quotes too.
Unfortunately, the part I quoted does contain more than a grain of truth: If Japan has to go nuclear, in the long run it probably will spin out of Washington’s orbit. For Japan, going nuclear would be a signal that it doesn’t believe it can count on our help, and when you stop to think about how all blame is focused on the Bush administration these days (instead of the North Koreans and their hard drive to obtain nukes no matter what), why would Japan conclude anything else? The end of politics stopping at the water’s edge is bound to have very real and dangerous consequences before too long. Japan won’t be the last to conclude that alliances with a divided superpower aren’t worth the paper they’re signed on.
So in the short run, Japan will buy more anti-missile technology from us, but in the long run it will turn its space program into a missile program and revive its once fearsome military. Japan is a superpower in waiting, and a nuclear North Korea would end the waiting.
On the other hand, read between the lines of Mr. Kim’s screed and you can see the signs of weakness. His article is full of the typical North Korean bluster and threats, but also demonstrable lies. North Korea’s missiles don’t work. He says that they do. North Korea is starving, its conventional military reportedly on the verge of collapse. Nuclear weapons are the one thing that might stave off the inevitable death of the regime, or at least (in their minds) keep them safe from us.
Diplomacy isn’t going to stop North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. That’s the bottom line. North Korea sees nukes as its last best hope of survival, while the rest of the world (minus China and possibly Russia) see North Korean nukes as an intolerable threat. I don’t see a peaceful end to this. Either China deals with Kim, or we do. And it doesn’t look like we will.
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Call it scare tactics, but I think it’s time to remind everyone some of what’s been going on over the past few years:
- China & Russia have held joint military exercises
- China & India have held joint military exercises
- India & Russia have held joint military exercises
- China, Russia, & India have held joint military exercises
RightWinged on October 6, 2006 at 11:31 AM
Rice said there would be “serious consequences” if North Korea launched one single missile, and they launched, what, eight?
We did nothing but threatened meaningless sanctions. Now, North Korea is going to test a nuclear weapon.
“Moderates” like Rice are making us the laughingstock of all the dictators in the world right now.
januarius on October 6, 2006 at 11:39 AM
Unfortunately any military option begins and ends with the decimation of Seoul. Even with all the technology we have we probably couldn’t stop the North from shelling Seoul into the ground.
Number 2 on October 6, 2006 at 11:44 AM
It was “too late” when we refused to kill the ‘Dongs on the pad.
Kid from Brooklyn on October 6, 2006 at 11:46 AM
Actually according to some reports Seoul won’t be in as much danger as feared. The North Korean conventional forces really are in a serious state of disrepair.
And Kid, I agree. We should have popped those missiles on the pad back in July.
Bryan on October 6, 2006 at 11:50 AM
So if NK splits some atoms this weekend, what do we do? Hit ‘em? “Negotiate”? “Sanctions”? Give them more reactors a la Clinton? None of these are good.
If a test is imminent, and it’s feasible, we pop the device in its test-bed. Conventional without the sunrise. It’s that or war, which is almost as bad as “negotiations”.
HerrMorgenholz on October 6, 2006 at 12:06 PM
Good post, Bryan. You guys are right, we should have done an airstrike on those missile pads, thereby sending a very strong message to any around the world that would proliferate or attempt to join the nuclear party.
Cary on October 6, 2006 at 12:12 PM
Rightwinged, you forgot to mention this:
- France & China have held joint military exercises
Hopefully, India will end up in our sphere of allies. I would expect them to veer away from China due to their emergence as economic competitors, our own increasing ties with India including the nuclear deal, and Pakistan’s closeness with China.
CP on October 6, 2006 at 12:12 PM
I was wondering what others think the U.S. should do if NK tests the missile. So far we haven’t done anything to make NK reconsider.
I lived in South Korea for a few years until 2002. To me, it was Kim Dae Jung’s administration, with its many left-wingers and “sunshine policy,” that hurt relations between the U.S., not China.
To sound harsh, I don’t think we should worry about Seoul to the extent that we would put the security of Japan and America in jeopardy, by taking any military option off the table. The anti-Americanism was not to be believed in South Korea while I was there: U.S. flags used as “door mats” at the entrance of libraries and cafeterias on Korean college campuses; the vandalism of U.S. flags during the World Cup; tons of anti-American demonstrations on Korean college campuses, but never a pro-demonstration; a demonstration of 10,000 South Korean youths ripping apart a huge American flag; constant anti-American stories on Korean broadcasting; polls that stated Korean youths preferred North Korea to America; Korean curricula in the public schools that stated that the U.S. caused North Korea to invade; doing everything they could to make lives miserable for American troops, e.g. constant demonstrations against U.S. military bases. I could go on and on and on.
So, really, we should not let worry about the shelling of Seoul put our lives and the Japanese lives in danger by refusing any military action towards the North.
januarius on October 6, 2006 at 12:40 PM
Where is Team America when you need em!
Kini on October 6, 2006 at 12:49 PM
I have to wonder why people some people (here and on other blogs) are attacking Condi Rice for being too moderate. If I remember correctly, she serves at the pleasure of the president. She gets her walking orders from the president, and the bounderies of what she can, and can not do, are set by the president. In other words, she aint the president. She can not make policy, and she can not do contrary to what the president tells her to do, unless she wants to become unemployed.
Perhaps if she was president she would have attacked N korea as soon as the missiles were launched. maybe not. But the bottom line is, unless she is president, she doesn’t make that call. She serves at the pleasure of the president.
(Under Billy Boy that line had a different meaning)
Wyrd on October 6, 2006 at 12:56 PM
I have a question. Please don’t yell at me. Why is this a big deal? I clearly understand why the NKs having nukes is an extremely big deal and a major worry for us and all civilization. My question is how does NK testing what we already know they have make it worse than it already is?
Is it that testing is a prerequisite to using?
This should be self evident I guess.
honora on October 6, 2006 at 2:12 PM
I am sick to my stomach of the verb “to urge”.
Today the headline on Yahoo is “U.N. to Urge N. Korea to Cancel Nuclear Test”
Every week it’s somebody…Annan, Bush, Rice,Tony Blair, The E.U., Jacques Chirac…”urging” some dictator/terrorist/wacko to desist from some atrocity/act of genocide/ you name it. Annan has urged Serbs to stop murdering Bosnians, Sudanese to stop murdering Darfurians (if I can call them that) and Syrian and Iran to stop supporting Hezbollah (or whatever terrorist flavour of the day they are supporting) and to what end?
Can anyone remember any international whackjob ever doing what the International community has “urged”? Ever?
In the west, we democratically elect leaders who we expect to apply common sense and principle to matters of international concern. We are told that we can look to NATO, the UN, the E.U., the Group of Six…you name it…to ensure our prosperity and security.
And how does that work out? NATO cannot get 2,500 soldiers to help finish the job in Afghanistan, the Group of Six negotiates endlessly with Iran, The U.N. Security Council is going to “urge” N. Korea to cancel nuclear tests (that’s going to work for sure…look at how sanctions helped).
Our leaders are craven, self serving, unprincipled cowards. They are not worthy of their electorates.
In the end, as a result of their gum flapping we will have nuclear weapons in North Korea, Iran, Japan and God knows where else. We will be less safe than before.
When I read that the U.N. will “urge” North Korea to cancel its nuclear tests, I get the “urge” to throw up.
Blaise on October 6, 2006 at 2:38 PM
Seeing how nukes are a fact of life, I support peace through nuclear proliferation and superior firepower. Mutually Assured Destruction works… but only on the sane.
SilverStar830 on October 6, 2006 at 3:40 PM
Eh, I almost hope they test one. We’ll finally see if anyone in this country actually has a backbone or if it’s ALL just BS. The scary thing is they could test it and “accidentally” hit a dam in their country, thereby washing away a good part of South Korea.
Again, pushing our (the world’s) hand will at least show us where our leadership and allies stand and let me know how much spam and water to stock up on.
NTWR on October 6, 2006 at 4:41 PM
For starters, it would start a domino effect of events that could likely lead to war in the region. But at the same time it would also answer some questions. A succesfful test would take a lot of guess work out of whether or not they actually do have nukes. And, it may further energize North Korea’s neighbors to find a permanent solution to the problem of Kim’s regime.
For several years the U.S. has been operating under the assumption that Pyongyang has the bomb. But do we know for a fact that they have even one working weapon? Do they even know? Without a test, how could they? Even if they had the components, even if they assembled them, they could not know for certain the weapons would work unless they tested at least one. It would be foolish to assume otherwise, especially with weapons as complex as atomic bombs; the expression “fine North Korean craftsmanship” has yet to catch on. It is unlikely that Pyongyang is bluffing though. It would serve no useful purpose to threaten a test and then not carry it out. That would certainly damage North Korea’s credibility, to the extent it has any.
At the same time, little is known about Pyongyang’s nuclear program (the North Koreans kicked out international inspectors in 2002). The threat of a nuclear device test is just plausible enough to be worrisome. There is also the possibility, always present with the North Koreans, that they are simply bluffing to gain negotiating leverage. They have done that many times already. One thing is clear though, the U.S., China, South Korea, Russia and Japan have always agreed on a core principle: They don’t want nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula.
The clear & present danger is that North Korea testing a nuclear weapon would upset the delicate balance of the region and offer additional hope to prospective terrorist clients around the world, providing that India and Pakistan haven’t already. A test could also strain the alliance between the United States and South Korea, which has sought to engage N Korea militarily in the past, but hasn’t at the behest of the United States. A North Korean nuclear test could also prompt Japan to seek its own nuclear deterrent (MAD), intensifying historical tensions with China and South Korea, both of which suffered under Japanese colonial rule in the early 20th century. If China got dragged into war in the region, they’d certainly go after Taiwan, and we’d have to step in since South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan are our allies.
A test would answer some key questions honora, but it would also start something that probably won’t end for many years and possibly not until after a lot of bloodshed. It’s probably more complicated than what I’ve suggested, and I’ve probably missed some key points, but it would get ugly for that region if they carry out a successful test.
SilverStar830 on October 6, 2006 at 4:53 PM
The way I heard it Japan could go nuclear in mere *weeks* - and even surpass China in a few years. Something about them already having a huge stockpile of refined fuel already.
CrazyFool on October 6, 2006 at 5:34 PM
Does anybody besides me think Kimmie acts out when he just hasn’t been the center of attention lately?
For myself I think that if the DPRK were completely ignored and embargoed all concerned that the wait for Kimmie’s implosion wouldn’t be that long.
If he acts out bad enough to gain attention that would be license to toast the grey toad.
Yes China likes Kimmie as a distraction to their own abuses but what China likes more is our MONEY.
A small threat to derail the money wagon and No. Korean antics would be a less attractive diversion.
Of course this kind of maneuvering on the world stage would take timing and pluck.
We wouldn’t want to irritate such a good friend and ally as China or maybe they’re just that big of a threat.
Maybe just ignoring him would work as well as what we’re doing now anyway.
Speakup on October 6, 2006 at 11:04 PM
Japan runs multiple nuke plants for energy, so they’ve got the material. They could have nukes on missiles in about 90 days from what I’ve heard. 1/2 the size, 1/3 of the price, with a built in MP3 player, all without union labor!! Seriously, their new prime minister, Abe, is not all hung up on the Japanese “no nukes” past. He’s a shrewd, tough SOB and as good, if not better, a friend to the US than Koizumi. China and Korea will go apesh– though.
Something tells me my Uncle Carl didn’t foresee “Japs” with nukes back in, say, ‘43.
HerrMorgenholz on October 7, 2006 at 7:24 AM
Christoph on October 7, 2006 at 7:58 AM
SilverStar: thanks for the explanation, appreciate your time. The Japanese angle is especially thorny.
honora on October 7, 2006 at 1:39 PM
It’s best that any consideration of Japan’s future include Japanese demography as one of the starting points. According to Mark Steyn in America Alone, The Japanese have such low total fertility that their population is on course to shrink rapidly over the next few decades. It’s said that the average age of the Japanese will also increase rapidly due to the falling ratio of young adults and children to the elderly. It seems best not to expect the Japanese to escape their military dependency, unless they manage to produce a robotic army.
Kralizec on October 7, 2006 at 6:17 PM
Nightmare scenario
1. North Korea detonates a nuke. Governments all over the world break out in cold sweats. The government of China brings down the government of Kim Jong Il with a blood less coup or with minimal fighting. World governments breathe a sign of relief, peace has returned to the planet. China engulfs North Korea which was their plan all along.
1.a If Kim Jong Il really is a Chinese finger puppet, then China secretly informs Iran, Al Qaeda, Taliban that nuclear bombs are for sale in North Korea, if used against enemies of China.
2. North Korea detonates a nuke. Governments all over the world break out in cold sweat. Iran, Al Qaeda, Taliban buy nuclear devices from North Korea. The Taliban detonates a nuke in Mumbai, with evidence leading back to Pakistan. India retaliates against Pakistan, Iran joins with India, and Iran overruns Western Pakistan, Southern Afghanistan. India and China take the rest of Pakistan.
2.a North Korea detonates a nuke. Iran announces it was an Iranian design, and that they now have nukes. Iran tells the United States that the US has 30 days to remove all US troops from Iraq. US forces are removed from Iraq, and the blood bath begins; ten times larger than Cambodia, Somalia, and Rwanda, combined. Iran overruns Iraq.
2.b . . . . .(see above) no warning is given, a nuclear device is detonated against US troops in Iraq, Iran invades, and with Shia allies overwhelm remaining US forces.
2.c …. (see above). When given 30 days to remove US forces from Iraq, US forces attack Iran. Russia, and China choose sides (or not). . . all bets are off.
3. After North Korea detonates a nuke, nothing happens except more talk at the UN. Without warning, a nuke is detonated in New York City, or Washington DC, or both. Everyone sentient being on the planet denies any responsibility. . .with no target to attack, and hurting from the strike, US does nothing more than withdrawing from the UN and ordering all UN personal out of the country.
3.a After nuclear strikes against a US city, the United States launches an attack against Iran, with every weapon available. China and Russia choose sides, all bets are off.
3.b Immediately following a nuclear strike against Washington DC, unconventional Islamic forces launch conventional strikes in nearly all major US cities.
4. North Korea detonates a nuke. Taliban uprising in Pakistan forces Musharraf from power. A new Taliban government take control of Pakistan, closely allied with Iran. Fighting in Afghanistan intensifies. Iran announces it now has nukes, and demands US forces leave Iraq.
5. North Korea detonates a nuke. Iran announces it has nukes, and threatens Israel, demanding the state of Israel be disbanded, and control returned to the Palestinians. Israeli, and US forces attack selected sites in Iran. Islamic unconventional forces launch attacks in all major US cities, and elsewhere, around the globe. All bets are off. . .
6. North Korea’s bomb doesn’t go off. . . . . .one can hope.
On the morning of September 11, 2001, absolutely no one on the planet could have known what those 19 hijackers were thinking when they got on the plane, except the decision makers who dreamed up the attack. The same holds true with these nightmare scenarios. We have absolutely no way to know what the principal actors in any of these scenarios are thinking, nor can any reasonable estimates of their force capabilities be determined.
Have a nice day.
rockhauler on October 7, 2006 at 7:25 PM