Don’t get too excited. They had him up 12 six weeks ago and no other pollster’s seen that margin in Connecticut. ARG had it 47-45 for Joementum nine days ago; I doubt he’s picked up eight points since then, especially with no good news from Iraq to bolster him. Still, I want to believe.

The likely margin is five points. Jim Geraghty explains why.

That’s the good news. More good news: Murtha is looking less likely to be the choice for House majority leader, in part — oh, sweet irony — because his social policies are too conservative for the supreme soviet.

The bad news? New Jersey, which is the one toss-up state that was trending Republican, has the Democrat back up by one. Mitigating factor: that’s well within the margin of error. Oh, and Katherine Harris and Michael Steele are getting roundly trounced. Mitigating factor: everyone expected them to.