The color purple: Senate races trending Democratic

posted at 10:28 pm on September 27, 2006 by Allahpundit

Top of the screen on Drudge right now is tomorrow’s NY Times lead story on the Senate, which is looking less red and more blue by the moment.

You don’t need to wait for the Times, though. Rasmussen had this two days ago.

ras-sen.png

Ominous: the trend in the “Lean DEM” column. More ominous: of the three toss-up states, only in New Jersey(!) is the Republican clearly ahead. Ford is surging in Tennessee and Missouri seems to be a dead heat between McCaskill and Talent. If those latter two break blue, it’s 50-49 in favor of the opposition.

Which leaves the most ominous number, the one all-important state in the “Lean GOP” column: …Virginia. It may well be that the only thing standing between us and Majority Leader Harry Reid is Senator Macaca. God help us.

Speaking of which, I think I’m going to boycott the southern bloggers until this latest Allen thing blows over.

The trend’s not just in the Rasmussen poll, either. Remember that USA Today/Gallup poll I posted on last week? The one that had the GOP dead even with the Democrats on the generic ballot? Yeah, you can forget about that now.

Update: Whew!

Update: Slublog puts it in perspective.

Update: The Times’s article is up. Dull. Lots of Allen schadenfreude, though.


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If the Democrats took over the Senate, they would have control over the legislative agenda, they would not confirm Bush administration officials and President Bush would have to fight to get his legislation passed.

So…what would be all that different?

I’m engaging in snark, of course, but the Senate’s problems are caused by the completely ineffective Republican leadership in that chamber. The base has been thoroughly demoralized by the likes of McCain, Frist and Snowe (sorry!).

Slublog on September 27, 2006 at 10:46 PM

Wrote that before the link – gracias, Allah.

Slublog on September 27, 2006 at 10:47 PM

YEah, and all of the exit polls showed Kerry winning.
I do not trust any of the pollsters one iota, all agenda driven propoganda it is.

bbz123 on September 27, 2006 at 10:51 PM

I agree with bbz123. Polls are about as reliable as the ETA for your pizza delivery. How many times have news organizations –announced on live TV and in pre-printed headlines– declared an election night winner/victory only to be dead wrong, based in large part on polls, in an effort to scoop their competitors?

Additionally, a pre-election timed terrorist strike attempting a repeat of Spain’s election results in the U.S. would do quite the opposite. Of that I am quite confident. I pray it doesn’t happen, but it’s still a real possibility… I’m just throwing that out there for consideration.

*sigh* Oh how I still relish the re-election night of President Dubya and the sound of millions of slack jaws hitting the floor all at the same moment. Good times.

SilverStar830 on September 27, 2006 at 11:09 PM

southern bloggers

Who?

Alex K on September 27, 2006 at 11:10 PM

Extra! Extra! Read all about it!

Completely unbiased media and agenda-free pollsters predict Democrat win!

Unprecedented prognostication spells doom for Repubs!

a4g on September 27, 2006 at 11:13 PM

Here’s an interest scenario: a 49 Dem – 50 Rep Senate; with Lieberman as the balance. I, for one, believe old Joe would look at Reid and realize what a disaster he and his would be. What fun that would be and would certainly make for a good laugh at the net roots.

Mike O on September 27, 2006 at 11:14 PM

While I don’t trust the polls either Slublog has a point. The absolute ineffectiveness (sp?) of the Senate chamber is discouraging and it will be tough for the base to get out and vote. I wonder how many Dims will benefit from the lack of enthusiasim of the Republican base. What I don’t get though is these clowns are chomping at the bit about impeachment if they do take over both houses. They hate Cheney but he would be da Prez.

Catie96706 on September 27, 2006 at 11:14 PM

I give this scenario, knowing full well that Chafee just might switch sides if his vote brought in the Dems (which would be typical for bailing him out of the primary heat).

Mike O on September 27, 2006 at 11:16 PM

Polls trending Dem? Umm..are these the SAME pollers who had Kerry winning in their exit polls at 2pm? Just asking
and I too am confused ALLAHPUNDIT..what is this about?

I think I’m going to boycott the southern bloggers

labwrs on September 27, 2006 at 11:32 PM

Yeah, I have to echo the earlier sentiments. If we can keep a majority in the House, I’m not going to get too upset.

First of all, I don’t believe the polls.

And even if they are by some miracle right, it won’t really matter.

We have had a numerical majority in the Senate for a long time, but thanks to the spinelessness of all but a few, a general lack of leadership and the general attitude of elitism… (Better to support a brother senator from across the aisle rather than the people that elected you). It doesn’t really matter. The Senate is a useless organization, and whichever party is in the majority, the ‘common people’ lose.

Just like sometimes when you have a hard to diagnose problem with your car, it is cheaper in the long run to just let it break down completely rather than replacing one part at a time willy-nilly.

LegendHasIt on September 27, 2006 at 11:36 PM

Might be a wise idea to avoid Virginia blogs. They are downright nasty these days.

CR UVa on September 27, 2006 at 11:37 PM

LegendHaslt, I agree about the senate. Feckless is the term that comes to mind. God bless the house Republicans for carrying the torch these days.

I don’t believe the polls either as there is just too much partisanship amongst pollsters. We all remember Kerry “running away” with the 2004 election in early exit polling. Time will tell. It will either be the Republicans or the Vichy-Americans come November.

I’m betting on the elephants in a squeeker. It may go 50-50 or 51-49 Republican.

Mojave Mark on September 28, 2006 at 12:19 AM

Its in the NY Times. Who cares what they say.
If Osama hadn’t started taking his talking points from them, I’d believe him more.

Iblis on September 28, 2006 at 12:33 AM

I live in a blue state but it ain’t gonna stop me from voting red.

speed647 on September 28, 2006 at 12:54 AM

BIG YAWN!!

Media polls always oversample Democrats. I’ve never seen one that hasn’t. I can’t tell with the Rassmussen poll as I can’t find the demographic breakdown for this one.

As the GOP’s nationwide ad blitz has just started, these polls mean nothing.

Interestingly enough, http://www.electionprojection.com/ shows the Republicans retaining both the house and the Senate.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/ shows a 50-50 tie (which means the Republicans retain control) in the Senate and the Republicans retaining the House.

We’ll have to see, of course, but I am optomistic that the Republicans will retain control of both Houses of Congress.

georgej on September 28, 2006 at 1:13 AM

Schadenfreude will be on Nov. 8 – I doubt it will be the NYT who’s going to enjoy it.

Entelechy on September 28, 2006 at 1:26 AM

Allah,

Rass is right about the races but remember, leaning Democrats doesn’t usually mean Dem win, Allen isn’t in trouble Webb has terrible baggage writing that the military academies should be closed to women or closed altogether and never refuted it.

As far as newspaper predictions go also as someone else said, 2000, 2002, 2004 NYT et al indiciated Dems sweep, remember Gephardt setting committee chair interviews?

Well Pelosi will feel about the same

Also democrats are assuming way too much in Tester , if they think he will follow a liberal agenda.

They will vote for party leadership but the water stops there Tester is running to the right of Burns his first vote left you will see a recall ballot passed in the great state of Montana.

Also, Dewine is now starting his campaign, Brown has gotten a 4% lead unopposed, Dewine was just waiting for his moment, so is Santorum. Stantorum has always polled ugly in PA he may lose but it will be very close.

Ford is not above 45%, kiss of death in Tennessee for Democrats. Cardin is also not campaigning yet, doesent need too.

So really, it looks like two pickups for the Republicans and two pickups for the Democrats.

No one really believes that Chafee will lose, Talent could but so could any of the vulnerable three sisters running as well because even though they have leads, statewide the republicans are leading the gov and lt gov races.

As the news is increasingly favorable for the republicans with 6 weeks left, I cannot see more races flipping for the Dems.

EricPWJohnson on September 28, 2006 at 1:40 AM

So the Democrat Senate will be run by a bunch of Democrats with actual “D”s next to their name for a change?

Whooptee-doo.

Misha I on September 28, 2006 at 2:39 AM

The media’s “October Surprises” have just begun…

the clinical depression among Republicans was as unjustified as the near-unanimous predictions of an overwhelming Democrat victory in November. The media and the Democrats were giving a stampede but voters were refusing to play the role of the cattle. The good news for Republicans remains diluted, but the Dems are still overplaying their hand.

Entelechy on September 28, 2006 at 3:09 AM

Didn’t the NYT run that same poll in 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2004? Kudos to the NYT for their extraordinary efforts toward recycling!

GT on September 28, 2006 at 3:35 AM

Whatever seat the GOP loses this year will be entirely the GOP’s fault. A more feckless majority could not be found. Any disgust and disillusionment from the Right is entirely understandable. Crushing the Democratic Party (as high a priority as winning the war) can’t be accomplished by incorporating their lack of spine.

Halley on September 28, 2006 at 7:09 AM

This ought to cheer Allah up.

JammieWearingFool on September 28, 2006 at 8:12 AM

Faux Polling. Film at 11:00

Rasmussen has been all over the place with the President’s polling numbers, and he rarely trends as the other polls do. How can that be accurate?

DannoJyd on September 28, 2006 at 8:32 AM

I just found this at the Drudge Report…

WARNING: November Races May Not Be As Close As They Appear
Thu Sep 28 2006 08:00:56 ET

Democratic pollsters are pushing lots of polls that show second- and third-tier candidates performing surprisingly well. If most of these challengers win, the Democrats will gain 30 or 40 House seats.

Yep! Just as many of us thought. ;o)

DannoJyd on September 28, 2006 at 9:23 AM

Re-written Drudge:

WARNING: Democrats in your mirror are not as close as they appear.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on September 28, 2006 at 9:41 AM

Hey Allah, Brian, Ian, Michelle, someone…
Is is possible to create some sort of comprehensive list of what would happen if dems regain control of the senate? Who takes over what committee, blah, blah, blah. Maybe as a way to scare the pants off of people? That could be an interesting discussion topic. I’m just not in the mood to do it. too depressing…

pullingmyhairout on September 28, 2006 at 9:42 AM

Polls are only as good as the people who conduct them and answer them.

Point 1. Most polls are conducted by agencies with a specific agenda that reflect the person or group who commissioned the agency to take the poll. So, the questions are generally framed in a way that cleverly *lead* those polled to answer in a light most favorable to the conclusion the agency wants to represent to it’s client.

Point 2. Most polls are conducted by phone, during regular working hours. Most conservatives are working (at their first job) during that period, so who is home to answer those polls?…the home-makers, the unemployed, the professional welfare leeches, the ultra wealthy elites…all of whom generally trend liberal.

Point 3. Unless the poll is conducted by Zogby, (who only polls registered voters in political polls), the outcome is already skewed to lean left because of point 1 & point 2.

The upside is that the opinions of those who are not registered to vote matters not. And, until those liberals who ARE registered, actually show up to vote, and do so in percentages that are paradromic to conservatives, we still have a fighting chance at avoiding moonbat governance.

Alden Pyle on September 28, 2006 at 10:13 AM

I predict the Dems talk back the House, but not the Senate. The House is the bigger prize IMO. (I am famously inaccurate in my predictions, so take heart!!) Dick Morris claims that any incumbent who polls lower than 50% is in big trouble for what that’s worth, as the undecided votes normally go against the incumbent.

honora on September 28, 2006 at 11:19 AM

purple? i thought that color of the Dems was yellow? seeing how they’re the “Cut & Run” / Surrender / Raise The White Flag” Party.

Starblazer on September 28, 2006 at 11:53 AM

ArlenP: what does paradromic mean?

honora on September 28, 2006 at 11:58 AM

Good news for Mr. Lieberman. Probably many conservatives responding favorably for him.

Entelechy on September 28, 2006 at 12:48 PM

I don’t buy these polls. They seem to be polling what they hope happens, maybe to try the bandwagon effect.

I predict some very depressed Dems and MSM reporters election day evening.

One poll I liked: The one that has George Allen up 5 points. I predict a landslide for Allen. Most people here in Virginia still don’t know who his challenger is. The “n*****” comments by UVA left-wing professor Sabato were a Democrat meltdown about the possibility of a Republican Senator Steele across the Potomac.

januarius on September 28, 2006 at 1:58 PM

Hey, guys! My first post here. I hope y’all like it!

I noticed on the SurveyUSA poll that Allen is receiving 21% of the black vote. That is an extraordinary number considering the smears that have taken place. What, if anything, do y’all think it means?

I hope it’s okay if use “y’all”!!

SouthernGent on September 28, 2006 at 2:04 PM

The New York Slimes just prints news as they wish it were.

NTWR on September 28, 2006 at 2:08 PM

SouthernGent, welcome. You have a great pen name. “y’all” is endearing :)

Your observation is very interesting. The Blacks are ‘awakening’ politically and the Left will never be potent again, or at least never take them for granted.

Entelechy on September 28, 2006 at 3:20 PM

Let’s not count our Senators and Reps until they’ve hatched. There are far too many ignorant, easily swayed voters out there who are very willing to listen to Democrat lies and believe them, and vote accordingly.

Wait til Wednesday….

ScottG on September 28, 2006 at 6:11 PM

Honora, paradromic means to mirror exactly in rise, rate, weight, percentage etc. It’s usually used when comparing two sets of data on a line graph that scale equally.

Alden Pyle on September 28, 2006 at 8:49 PM

Definition of difficult words – paradromic

Entelechy on September 29, 2006 at 12:24 AM

Honora, paradromic means to mirror exactly in rise, rate, weight, percentage etc. It’s usually used when comparing two sets of data on a line graph that scale equally.

Alden Pyle on September 28, 2006 at 8:49 PM

Thanks, great word!!!

honora on September 29, 2006 at 10:38 AM