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DNI posts NIE on website

posted at 5:01 pm on September 26, 2006 by Allahpundit
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I recommend saving the doc. Their server could get dicey once Drudge links.

Update: People are already having trouble with the DNI site so I went ahead and put it on our server. Download here.

Update: Strong horse/weak horse.

We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.

• The Iraq conflict has become the cause celebre for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

• Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism. This also could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader Muslim communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to capitalize on passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the most powerful weapon in the war on terror.

Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests.

The kicker? Contrary to most lefty beliefs, Bush’s team does think it’s important to get Osama:

The loss of key leaders, particularly Usama Bin Ladin, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into smaller groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and disagreements. We assess that the resulting splinter groups would, at least for a time, pose a less serious threat to US interests than does al-Qaida.

Update: So the gist of the document is that Iraq’s become hugely important to the war on terror and it’s crucial that the U.S. win there. How does WaPo present it?

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I cannot get that page to open, and seems there’s trouble with LGF too

bbz123 on September 26, 2006 at 5:06 PM

They must be getting slammed with requests. Spotty connectivity, but I was able to grab the PDF after a few attempts. Should make for some interesting reading…

GregH on September 26, 2006 at 5:12 PM

Yep, down for me too

Mortis on September 26, 2006 at 5:12 PM

Try refreshing when you get to the page.

Allahpundit on September 26, 2006 at 5:13 PM

Site must be getting slammed – no luck for me either, even with refreshing.

SisterToldjah on September 26, 2006 at 5:16 PM

Not working for me, even refresh.

I get Network Error.

Brian on September 26, 2006 at 5:16 PM

Download works!!!

Brian on September 26, 2006 at 5:19 PM

I got it and just finished. Didnt recognize several of the organizations it talked about….

And the NIE specifically mentions radical leftist groups being a threat to the US-

nti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical
ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt
terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more
quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of
surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to
pinpoint.

BelchSpeak on September 26, 2006 at 5:19 PM

I put it on our server; note the update.

Allahpundit on September 26, 2006 at 5:19 PM

Its not that big, you could paste the whole thing here. After all, us govt docs are not copyrighted.

BelchSpeak on September 26, 2006 at 5:21 PM

Nice juicy summary:

Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.
• We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the Internet to communicate, propagandize, recruit, train, and obtain logistical and financial support.

Sounds like a DNC training manual.

JammieWearingFool on September 26, 2006 at 5:21 PM

Excellent, thanks Allah.

The MSM (or whoever the ‘leaker’ was) really misrepresented what this thing said.

SisterToldjah on September 26, 2006 at 5:22 PM

Keep in mind this was written in April; lot’s of Zarkman stuff in there. And he’s, well, no longer relevant, so to speak.

JammieWearingFool on September 26, 2006 at 5:23 PM

So there were several things contributing to the growth of jihad, not just one:

Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1)
Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western
domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the
Iraq jihad; (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and
political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US
sentiment among most Muslimsall of which jihadists exploit.

SisterToldjah on September 26, 2006 at 5:24 PM

I just got it.

One of the conclusions I just read is wrong already. To wit:

The jihadists greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution – an
ultra-conservative interpretation of sharia-based governance spanning the
Muslim world – is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims.

Not true. I’m gonna dig out the survey recently that proved otherwise.

Andy in Agoura Hills on September 26, 2006 at 5:25 PM

Okay. Here’s the Pew Poll I was thinking of that sort of contradicts the NIE paragraph I highlighted.

Andy in Agoura Hills on September 26, 2006 at 5:34 PM

I’m going to be watching for the liberal backlash due to Bush releasing this classified document.

Playing politics with War.

DannoJyd on September 26, 2006 at 5:42 PM

Here’s a few other surveys showing Sharia is popular, even in Western countries: here, here.

Andy in Agoura Hills on September 26, 2006 at 5:45 PM

So, instead of taking this “Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.” and printing the equivalent of “If we keep it up we can beat these bastards, the media prints, “Oh shit, we’re only making things worse, boo f***ing hoo, we’re all gonna dieee, waaaaaaaaa.”

PROSECUTE TRAITOROUS LEAKS, PRESIDENT BUSH.

BirdEye on September 26, 2006 at 5:49 PM

“The left keeps on spinning,spinning
into the cesspool”
( apologies to Steve Miller)

bbz123 on September 26, 2006 at 5:54 PM

Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies.

“Anti-globalization sentiment?”
That would be me. Are they worried that Americans who are against the North American Union will soon be carrying out terrorist attacks?

Are they worried that Americans in favor of a secure border will be bombing buses?

Hmmm …

Or are they simply throwing that in to label these Americans as “radical groups?”

Gregor on September 26, 2006 at 5:55 PM

I want to join a radical group, but I’m too durn old to join the Boyscouts of America.

DannoJyd on September 26, 2006 at 5:58 PM

I’ve just been labeled a TERRORIST!

Absurd

Gregor on September 26, 2006 at 6:00 PM

Gregor I was wondering the same thing about

This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests.

that part.

I’m sort of a nationalist, I would guess. I think since America is so multicultural our main strength is our cultural identity- our AMERICAN cultural identity. Are they worried that those who love Old Glory and all she stands for will be using terrorist tactics?

I think you’re right :

are they simply throwing that in to label these Americans as “radical groups?”

NTWR on September 26, 2006 at 6:08 PM

Wow, I’m a radical now and I actually shave my armpits.

NTWR on September 26, 2006 at 6:09 PM

It won’t be long before they drag us into some gulag and some female GI slaps a collar around our neck.

Oh. Never mind.

In Nevada they pay for that.

Gregor on September 26, 2006 at 6:29 PM

When in the hell will leakers by identified and prosecuted for sedition, treason and undermining national security?

You’ll hear next to nothing about this from the hit-and-run media tomorrow.

doingwhatican on September 26, 2006 at 7:39 PM

Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

I can’t imagine (sarcasm) why the MSM isn’t focusing on the part of the NIE which advocates victory in Iraq instead of “withdrawal”?

gash on September 26, 2006 at 7:54 PM

We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.

Anybody know what the timeframe of the Estimate is?

GregH on September 26, 2006 at 9:01 PM

I think the timeframe was 5 years? In other words, its not gonna get better for a while.

BelchSpeak on September 26, 2006 at 9:15 PM

The full report basically blows the entire Democratic premise into orbit — or into the septic tank, where most of the Party’s liberal constituents are known to reside.

The Iraqi campaign is not elevating emotions among radical or militant groups that did not aspire to elevate their emotions prior to Saddam’s removal and the liberation of Iraq and Afghanistan. When a liberal attempts to use either of those actions as the nexus of militant uprisings against the US, one must ponder the liberal’s sanity or beg the question: all those attacks prior to 9/11 — including 9/11 — were the acts of only mildly inflamed militants.

When you’re a coward, liar, and wimpering simp (two out of three required to possess a Democratic voter registration card), this logic not only makes sense, it will be used to hoist the next moonbat conspiracy theory.

Spider Dan on September 26, 2006 at 9:33 PM

lot’s of Zarkman stuff in there. And he’s, well, no longer relevant, so to speak.

JammieWearingFool on September 26, 2006 at 5:23 PM

Ah, JWF, he’s with the 72 virgins now; not, you say, they ran out of them. Then the worms must be eating his nails by now, having had a fest on the softer parts earlier…

Entelechy on September 27, 2006 at 1:41 AM

The way I read this if 1) Iraq is creating and inspiring a lot of jihadists, but 2) there is light at the end of the tunnel based on moderate Islam stepping up and introducing less oppressive forms of gov’t.