Is Bush’s approval rating really trending upward?
posted at 5:12 pm on September 19, 2006 by Allahpundit
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The new USA Today/Gallup poll is top of the page at Drudge. They’ve got Bush at 44% job approval; AP-Ipsos and Fox/Opinion Dynamics polls taken a few days earlier had him at 39 and 40, respectively. An upward trend? Probably not. Recall that Rasmussen had him at 47% last Thursday, a bounce I attributed to 9/11 memories and which I predicted would blow over. His Rasmussen numbers today? 40%, down from 41 the day before, down from 44 on September 16th, which lay smack dab in the middle of the sample window used by USA Today/Gallup. It was a bubble, and it’s likely already popped.
There are a number of items in the USAT/G poll that defy conventional wisdom, in fact. Check out this compilation of some of the more striking results.
You can attribute the optimism in the war on terror to Bush’s speech last week about the CIA prisons and how they’ve been used to foil AQ plots. You can attribute the support for the Geneva Conventions to the fact that people weren’t informed beforehand that “more forceful techniques” means belly slaps and shirt grabbing. You can attribute the greater belief that Bush has a concrete plan for Iraq than that the Democrats do to the fact that, um, Democrats have no plan for Iraq. But that five-point swing in popular support for the war itself? I don’t know what to attribute that to. Maybe Bush’s 9/11 speech, in which he restated the importance of winning in Iraq to winning the WoT?
I guess that would explain this, too:
That’s a clear majority, back to the same levels (slightly higher, actually) they were at in June. Was it the speech that did it? Or is it, paradoxically, the fact that things in Iraq have gotten worse? The Dems are betting that Americans will respond to the deteriorating security by voting to cut and run. If they vote instead to redouble their commitment, it’ll be — paradoxically again — to the GOP’s advantage.
More polls: Rasmussen says Linc Chafee trails by eight; Brown U says he trails by one. I shan’t be sorry to see him go. Joementum’s holding steady with a two-point lead in Connecticut, although that’s a three-point dip from where he was immediately after the primary. As of today, Election Projection sees the Dems picking up three seats in the Senate and 10 in the House — which would leave both in Republican hands, albeit at considerably narrower margins. No impeachment, though.
Update: More from Gallup. Tough choices.
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Dear lord, please stop posting that Pelosi pic… I already had nightmares from the last time it was posted!
SilverStar830 on September 19, 2006 at 5:14 PM
Ditto.
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GT on September 19, 2006 at 5:21 PM
Rasmussen expected the Presidents numbers to drop almost immediately, and in his poll they did. Question the timing? I think so.
The crud being reported on concerning the Pope, Iran, and the U.N. should create an increase in both Bush’s, and republican’s polling numbers.
I still consider polls to be mental masturbation.
DannoJyd on September 19, 2006 at 5:23 PM
Prediction: Republicans remain in control, and Pelosi’s head explodes the day after the election. Autoposy will reveal that she overdosed on bad Botox in the days leading up to the election.
realVerse on September 19, 2006 at 5:26 PM
If he would nut up on national security, he’d win. Senator Whitehouse is not a happy prospect.
Of course, you know a thing or two about Senatorial embarrasment.
Pablo on September 19, 2006 at 5:37 PM
Speaker Pelosi is a Stretch at this point.
JammieWearingFool on September 19, 2006 at 5:50 PM
Prediction: Republicans remain in control, and Pelosi’s head explodes the day after the election. Autoposy will reveal that she overdosed on bad Botox in the days leading up to the election.
realVerse
I have it on good authority that Pelosi is actually a “Pod-People” which will become evident after her head explodes and the floor of the House becomes littered with “Pod” seeds.
darwin on September 19, 2006 at 6:00 PM
graph showing Bush’s approval rating correlating closely to cost of a gallon of gas.
wordwarp on September 19, 2006 at 8:49 PM
Thanx for the reminder of where we will be in about 47 days if we don’t get out there and do something. That pic of Pelosi…well, lets just say it says a thousand ( or more) words
lsutiger on September 20, 2006 at 12:38 AM
when Pelosi’s mug is in my face I can’t concentrate on anything else. Animal control techniques require with some species you must retain eye contact. With other species, the same eye contact can spook the beast and it will rip your guts out. Pelosi has the eyes of a Doberman that just lost a dog biscuit. It makes me want to run like heck.
Plus, there is nothing worse than too many lower eyelid lifts. When it is overdone the lid pulls down away from the eyeball forming a cup. This cup can be useful for giving eyedrops or catching pus but it is tough to look at.
I feel like a gawker mesmerized by a pile of raw intestines while the cop keeps telling me to keep moving.
What was I talking about? I forgot.
Damn that woman.
entagor on September 20, 2006 at 9:23 AM
Actually, as the November elections will show, “they” are about to find out that the graphs have been held upside down!
Dread Pirate Roberts VI on September 20, 2006 at 12:17 PM
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