Iran promises a “surprise” related to its nuke program in the next few days (Update: Iran “flipped the world the bird”)

posted at 8:14 pm on August 23, 2006 by Allahpundit

I love surprises! Maybe they’ve had a change of heart and decided to unilaterally suspend their enrichment program for the sake of peace in the Middle East.

Or maybe I’m going to have to eat the biggest plate of shinola in human history. Which, if so, would be the very least of our worries.

Goldstein wonders if western pressure on Israel to lay off Hezbollah wasn’t designed with this scenario in mind, as a goodwill gesture to make the other members of the Security Council more amenable to sanctions on Iran when that issue came to a head. If so, it was an exceptionally naive move:

[T]he entire United Nations Security Council is supposed to vote on the sanctions package. While only the permanent members can veto, the rising fear, particularly among European diplomats, is that smaller countries on the Council are so angry over how the United States, and now France, have handled the Lebanon crisis that they will give Russia and China political cover to balk against imposing tough sanctions.

Jeff knows that and thinks Bush is doing what he did in the run-up to Iraq, i.e., jumping through the requisite diplomatic hoops to keep the leftists from howling if and when we do have to act militarily. The problem is, the UN almost certainly won’t be endorsing an attack this time. They’ll end up imposing some weak form of sanctions, and once they do, there’ll be no more hoops to jump through. They’re going to howl regardless.

The State Department dismissed Iran’s counterproposal today as “falling short” of the UN’s conditions. France, surprisingly, agrees. The kiss of death.

Update: More “surprises”:

Iran bears significant responsibility for the recent violence in Israel and Lebanon and poses a serious security threat to the United States, according to a staff report released Wednesday by the House Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy.

The U.S. intelligence community must collect more and better intelligence on Iran, especially on its nuclear, biological and chemical weapons programs, the 29-page bipartisan report says.

Update: Sources tell the JPost that Israel is increasingly convinced it will have to deal with the mullahs on its own. Why? Because Iran “flipped the world the bird” this week and suffered no consequences for doing so.

Update: Dan Riehl wonders how Israeli and U.S. intelligence can be getting such different pictures.

Update: Captain Ed notes that Israel just bought itself two nuclear-capable subs. In another age, with a different enemy, that’d be a deterrent.


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Ah well, I give up on trying to prognosticate on this. I’ve had to ‘eat shinola’ to a certain extent because yesterday passed with out anythyng beyond the ordinary, and I thought something MIGHT happen.

Given that none of the parties involved in this travesty seem to be completely rational, it is essentially a coin toss on any given day.

Since AllahImInAJihad et al seem to be winning the propaganda war (with the cooperation of the MSM), maybe they don’t feel the need to actually do anything really serious, just keep talking tough one day then backing off the next… lather, rinse repeat….. Until they merely irritate us to death.

LegendHasIt on August 23, 2006 at 8:47 PM

Opinion: Iran is stalling while continuing to develop nuclear weapons. If they are not stopped there is an excellent probability that nuclear attack in one form or another (ballistic, terriorism, or tactical weapons such as artillery) will be launched against Israel and US.

I believe that shinola or crow is not on my plate with this prediciton – if Islamfacist Iran develops the ability to produce nuclear weapons the question becomes not “if” but “when”.

Israel and the US must act soon to avert catastrophic consequences for the world.

omegaram on August 23, 2006 at 8:53 PM

Iran would never do anything of the sort. Just ask Pat Buchanan

rightside on August 23, 2006 at 10:15 PM

Had a guy say to me once: “It’s either shit or shinola, bub, Ya’ can’t have both.”

Anyways, in regards to the 23, I thought something MIGHT happen too…and maybe it did. Maybe it just wasn’t as obvious as some of us thought it MIGHT be. Maybe.

Ahmadinnerjacket? Cap him! Now. Somebody.

james hooker on August 24, 2006 at 3:57 AM

Captain Ed notes that Israel just bought itself two nuclear-capable subs. In another age, with a different enemy, that’d be a deterrent.

Hmmm, I wondered what this, this and this was about.

Some senior Bush administration officials and top Republican lawmakers are voicing anger that American spy agencies have not issued more ominous warnings about the threats that they say Iran presents to the United States.

Wow! I don’t see how our intelligence gatherers interests, which one must assumed are identical to ours, are served by “overestimating the time it would take for Iran to build a nuclear weapon” intentionally. Maybe they know something the senior officials and lawmakers don’t. Or, maybe they’re part of the international islamofascist conspiracy. As Allahpundit says, either way.

THeDRiFTeR on August 24, 2006 at 4:33 AM

I wonder if the United States is about to become the world’s most populous Jewish nation. And I was just about to add as “clarification” that I would welcome that, but I suddenly realized it would sound like I want Israel to get blown up.

Thinking about how much I owe to Leo Strauss and Martin Zweig, to name just two of “my Jews,” it occurs to me just how stupid muslims have been, not to have figured out a way to turn the Israeli Jews into a strategic asset. Couldn’t a muslim scholar dig up a long-lost hadith in which the Prophet reveals Allah’s will that the Faithful accept the Jews as a sort of auxiliary wing? Or maybe a bunch of imams could get together and issue a really menacing fatwa, something like, “Death to the Jews! Unless you agree to staff our universities! Do this and we may let you live, by Allah!”

Kralizec on August 24, 2006 at 5:38 AM

I don’t see how our intelligence gatherers interests, which one must assumed are identical to ours, are served by “overestimating the time it would take for Iran to build a nuclear weapon” intentionally.

Who is the “ours” you are referencing? The United States or the Democratic Party?

Maybe they know something the senior officials and lawmakers don’t.

Then it is their job to educate and inform, not obfuscate and undermine.

B Moe on August 24, 2006 at 6:50 AM

They’re going to howl regardless.
Yes they are and we simply cant take that into consideration anymore. Iran is an incredibly dangerous nation with that messianic nutcase in charge and fully supported by the real power: the mullahs.
I shudder to think what is in store and especially noted the nuke sub purchase recently. I keep hearing about how 80% of the people dont support the regime in Iran. Poppycock. Just like the “arab street” this has become a talking point without any real basis in fact I think.

labwrs on August 24, 2006 at 7:27 AM

I keep hearing about how 80% of the people dont support the regime in Iran. Poppycock. Just like the “arab street” this has become a talking point without any real basis in fact I think.

Totally agree on all counts, especially this one. Besides, look at Iraq–they didn’t support Saddam either, but they sure don’t seem to mind killing infidels. Iranians may not support the mullahs & Ahmadinejad, but I don’t believe they support the US or Israel in the least. We MUST act in our own best interests, not in the interests of Fwance or the UN or anyone else.
I’ve come to the point where I think we need to start dropping nukes to end the madness. So what if they don’t support the mullahs & the dinner jacket? They’ll still want to nuke Israel, at the very least. And us, too (see Iraq).

bamapachyderm on August 24, 2006 at 9:03 AM

Wait, lemme clarify: If we go to explicit war with Iran, I mean let’s not waste time. Drop the nukes, cut your losses. Don’t nuke before the firing commences.

bamapachyderm on August 24, 2006 at 9:04 AM

He’s not flipping the world off, that’s what they use to wipe their butts.

They don’t believe in toilet paper, it’s an infidel thing.

Kini on August 24, 2006 at 1:16 PM

Then it is their job to educate and inform, not obfuscate and undermine.

B Moe on August 24, 2006 at 6:50 AM

You start with the intelligence, then you follow with a political agenda. Not the other way around.

Hello?

THeDRiFTeR on August 24, 2006 at 2:52 PM

You start with the intelligence, then you follow with a political agenda. Not the other way around.

That is my point. You need to explain it to the CIA.

B Moe on August 24, 2006 at 3:53 PM

Well, Ahmadenijad, we got a few surprises for your *** as well. Maybe you should shave before your departure.

gary on August 24, 2006 at 6:19 PM