Pollmania!
posted at 10:36 pm on August 22, 2006 by Allahpundit
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Yeah, that’s super. There are only two problems with it.
Problem one: A CNN poll taken over the same period:
Problem two: A new NYT/CBS poll also taken over (roughly) the same period:
CNN didn’t do a breakdown of its sample by party affiliation; the Times did, and it’s a bit skewed towards blue (of course). Still: if I had to guess which poll is the outlier, I’d guess Ace’s.
Click through on the Times poll and scroll down to page 7. The accompanying article predicts trouble for Republicans due to Americans seeing Iraq as increasingly distinct from terrorism. But if anything, that helps Bush: slightly more voters say “terrorism,” not Iraq, is the most important issue facing America right now. And terrorism’s where Bush just got a bounce.
There were a couple of surveys in the news in the UK today too, but not of the electoral variety. Think big picture. From ICM:
The top one’s getting headlines because the press can use it to bludgeon Blair, but after Madrid, it’s not exactly a secret that the jihadis dislike hawkish governments. The second result is the interesting one. As left-wing and anti-war as the Brits are, a clear majority are under no illusions about the alleged fictitiousness of the conflict. How could they be?
The Speccie got similar results in a new poll of its own, but take this one with a grain of salt. Some of the answer choices tend to make the results a foregone conclusion (in particular, the question on the bottom of page 3). Having said that, though, check these out:
I’m not sure how you square number three with number one. Not with Europe being what it is at the moment.
Notice anything unusual about the results to the first two questions, by the way? Look closely.
One government minister told the public today to prepare itself for a “perpetual” battle.
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Do you mean that British women are more hawkish than British men?
see-dubya on August 22, 2006 at 10:43 PM
A-yup.
Allahpundit on August 22, 2006 at 10:45 PM
Good for you see-dubya. I wanted to say “the ladies, by +8″ and you beat me :) For this reason, it’s the same group that will keep the Reps in place in Nov., in spite of their warts.
It looks good for Mr. Cameron in Britain, right now. Boy, can he communicate.
Made my day – who ever wants to be normal, like white sheep?
Entelechy on August 22, 2006 at 11:06 PM
“If the elections for Congress were held today, results would show no one had voted because they wouldn’t know to show up for the vote.”
($1 to Dennis Miller…)
tdau1997 on August 22, 2006 at 11:30 PM
Yeah, but Polls are like opinions and opinions are like a$$holes, everybody’s got one.
Kini on August 22, 2006 at 11:37 PM
Re: party affiliation – just about every poll that comes out is conveniently “skewed towards blue” – therefore, I don’t see how any of them can be taken seriously. The Dems are the minority, why then are they disproportionately represented as the majority of the sample in every poll?
CP on August 22, 2006 at 11:57 PM
This must be the week for polls. I come to that conclusion due to a Zogby poll that Rush linked to at his site in which Newt holds the lead.
All of those polling numbers finally look as they should. I guess freedom loving people needed a wake-up call.
I see that the Ace site draws a few of the kool-aid kiddies. I would love to know if they have the courage of their convictions to the point that they would not vote for a candidate that refuses to run on, “Impeach Bush”.
I would have posted that question, but the answers I receive tend to be nasty, and I prefer to not make waves at his site.
DannoJyd on August 22, 2006 at 11:57 PM
CP, I’ve tried to formulate a way to garner better, more accurate numbers from the polls, but the best I can say is that until about a week before an election the numbers seem to be about 5 points out of favor for republicans.
I regularly follow the Rasmussen daily Bush poll, and have come to believe that they definitely manipulate the numbers there.
The only thing I know for certain about polls is that too many of those come from the MSM for the sole purpose of creating an effect, not to pass along information to the huddled masses.
I don’t believe the main stream media, polls included, until their stories are verified several times.
DannoJyd on August 23, 2006 at 12:07 AM
Good morning Danno – I knew you’d be back! Thank you for the interesting link. From that poll:
- the upside: Gingrich, McCain, Giuliani and John Kerry in 9th place – I can live with this!
- the downside: Wesley Clark in 2nd place? I couldn’t live with that!
I agree entirely with your poll reflections, in your last post. The MSM is hoping against hope to sway – they will be miserable again, along with those who fell for them. In a funny and weird way, what they conceive as helping is hurting (their ideals) in the end…
Entelechy on August 23, 2006 at 12:45 AM
Good morning, Entelechy. What made you think I wouldn’t be back? ;o)
I would submit that the MSM are like the democrats as they both continue to use the same old, torn, and worn out ideas from their respective play books that hasn’t worked for them in over 10 years, and therin lies their problem. They just cannot get it through their tin foil wrapped heads that Americans are wise enough to see past their shenanigans [good Irish word].
If polls were worth donkey squat the democrats would be in power today. Enough said.
DannoJyd on August 23, 2006 at 1:08 AM
That reminds me, during the “political grapevine” today, Hume mentioned that Bush got a substantial jump among women in the latest USA Today/Gallup poll. He went from 34% to 41%.
http://poll.gallup.com/content/?ci=24214
RightWinged on August 23, 2006 at 1:26 AM
Danno, I meant “back” in the ‘fighting spirit’ of debating the upcoming elections. Over the weekend you seemed a bit disappointed and ready to ’sit it out’. Understandable with our imperfect bunch in Wash. D.C. I’m glad you’re back and that we can share information to get all our compadres out there to vote! “Shenanigans” is a good word :)
RightWinged, thanks for that link – suppose Hillary knew this when she tried to preempt with “…the President has failed us on security” – she wanted to adopt this mantra until Nov….and then the plot was outed :(
…a terrorizing headline – I can’t believe it made it through…
Ah, those ladies, British or American – they know which dudes keep them safe! Ha, how non-feminist… But how reassuring!
Entelechy on August 23, 2006 at 1:38 AM
Entelechy, the idea that I would ever shut up, or pass up a good fight causes me to LMBO. ;o)
The poll that RightWinged passed along a link to shows that the President is not doing his job in getting out the message that the economy is doing great. If he ever correctly addresses the ILLEGAL Immigration problem I believe that alone would cause his polling numbers to gain a minimum of 7 points.
Newt for President! [I wonder if he is hiring]
DannoJyd on August 23, 2006 at 1:52 AM
Quite right Entelechy! We have the same Will to Live as the men and although there are some brainwashed liberal lillies, most of us are realistic and smart enough to see a threat for what it is..a threat to ALL of us.
labwrs on August 23, 2006 at 8:25 AM
I wonder if liberals are going to be sick of “terror-moms” the way we used to sick of hearing about “soccer-moms”.
kcluva on August 23, 2006 at 9:01 AM
It doesn’t matter what the polls currently say. The Demcrats are currently in the process of committing Hari-Kari. The DUmmie FUnnies just now covered this process of Democrat suicide but I …must… fight … urge… to… post… link. Must… fight … against … my …inner … link-whore!
pjcomix on August 23, 2006 at 10:11 AM
I could be wrong, it has to happen at least once in my life; but I believe two things about the coming elections to be true. (1) Off year elections are local, ‘what have you done for my state lately,’ and generalized national polling will not reflect state voting. (2) With the terror threat still existing and a recent poll showing the Republicans still have an edge when it comes to national security, once they get in the voting booth the voters will vote for the status quo and the Republicans will still hold on to Congress.
God help us all if the Democrats get back in control. a. Bush will be impeached within 90 to 180 days. That is, there will be impeachment hearings, I don’t believe any charges can ever hold up, especially before the public. b. We will cut-and-run from Iraq within six months. c. We will lose the war on terror through a policy of appeasement through endless, useless negotiations. d. Our taxes will be increased, although the Democrats will claim they are only ending the Bush tax cuts, not actually raising taxes. e. Our economy will suffer, jobs will be lost, interest rates will increase dramatically and the housing market will fall. And that is the good news!
Umnumzana on August 23, 2006 at 11:10 AM
Well, let’s see – polls told us Howard Dean was going to be the Dem’s ‘04 candidate (and good chance of being president), and exit polls showed us Kerry was going to be our next president…hmmm, something strange going on. I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’ve never been approached by pollsters. All I’ve got to say is: screw the polls!! Polls are the MSM’s way of meddling with policy. They are skewed and biased. The MSM is out to hammer Bush every chance they get.
Rick on August 23, 2006 at 11:46 AM
pjcomix, please at least explain what the cause for hara-kiri is. I believe the dems who are still sane don’t want to swing so much to the left (even the polls, which now don’t matter, tell this). I also believe that the NSA story will be front and center and they will have to, against their will, state where they stand on protecting us. I also believe that the law needs to be strengthened in favor of the President, for these times.
Umnumzana, you got it right. Above all these are exceptional times.
Rick, as usual, I could have said what you just wrote. I have never, ever been called for polling info either, not that I’m wishing it. Your statement is right on!
Entelechy on August 23, 2006 at 11:56 AM
I’m with Penn & Teller…Polls are BS. We see how accurate they were in predicting Kerry our next president in the last election. Why anyone gives them any credence, I’ll never know. Not only that… How many of YOU have actually taken part in one? I’ve been called exactly once for a poll and it was a local race.
tickleddragon on August 23, 2006 at 12:04 PM
To get the “correct” results of course….
ScottG on August 23, 2006 at 12:45 PM
The dinosaur media, its pollsters and the donkey party are an “alternative-reality-based community” that get themselves high by inhaling each others’ exhale until their brains are deprived of oxygen.
Liberals’ inability to undertake an honest self-examination – coupled with a “Wishing-makes-it-so” capability for self-delusion – renders them highly susceptible to believing that if they just keep clicking their heels together, Dorothy-like, while chanting their “Bush is Toast!/Republicans are DOOMED!!” mantras, then somehow they can generate a metaphysical “buzz” that will by itself somehow transform society’s thoughts and magically convert their desires into reality.
This is why you only see libs taking pseudo-intellectual crap like “The 100th Monkey” and “A butterfly flapping its wing causing a hurricane on the other side of the globe” seriously.
They indulged themselves in this kind of pathetic self-deception in 2002 and 2004, confidently gaming out scenarios about how they were going to take control of Congress, only to have the real world come crashing down on their little fantasy-world.
I see little reason to expect a different outcome in 2006, despite the Republicans’ problems. For liberals’ inability to undertake an honest introspection translates into an inability to learn from mistakes, and that translates into repeating the same mistakes: “I know! The reason why we lost in 2004 was because we didn’t hate Republicans and moderates within our own party enough – but if we just hate them harder this time around, we’ll get a different result!”
Yeah, that’s the ticket …
Spurius Ligustinus on August 23, 2006 at 5:20 PM
As a Republican, I don’t have time for polling and hang up on the idiots that call.
gary on August 23, 2006 at 6:30 PM
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