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Nasrallah on disarmament: Not really feeling it right now

posted at 11:15 pm on August 14, 2006 by Allahpundit
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They’ll disarm — eventually. But they can’t right now, or else who’ll defend Lebanon the next time Israel strikes? The Lebanese army? It’s too weak.

Ask him again in a year or two, though. Maybe it’ll be the right time then.

The same Lebanese army that’s too weak to defend Lebanon is planning to deploy to the south within the next 48 hours, with some anti-Syrian members of parliament stating they expect Hezbollah to hand over its heavy weaponry when they get there. Debka claims jihadi reinforcements are already being moved south to prepare for a possible confrontation.

Nasrallah’s addressed this subject before:

Speaking last year, in the context of a national dialogue that raised the question of political parties with arms, Nasrallah warned that “any thought of disarming the resistance is pure madness,” adding that “any such step is an Israeli act, and any hand reaching for the resistance’s weapons is an Israeli hand and we will chop it off.”

That quote reverberated across Lebanon, where some used it as a ring tone on their cellphones.

The Sunni death cult in Palestine is in raptures over its new Shiite hero, replete with soundtrack: “Ramallah’s hit song of the summer, blaring out of shops and streets stalls on a loop, is ‘The eagle of Lebanon,’ in praise of Nasrallah.” Assad’s riding his coattails by promising to liberate the Golan Heights by force. Olmert promises he’ll kill him the first chance he gets, but I don’t see how he’ll be able to without violating the UN resolution. And even if he could, with 58% of the Israeli public unhappy with the outcome, MKs heckling him during his speech today, IDF reservists petitioning to continue the battle, and op-ed writers calling for his head, it’s doubtful he’ll survive as PM long enough to take the shot even if one presents itself.

In any event, Nasrallah’s vowing to call his bluff.

But all’s not lost. A most unlikely source is calling the war not just a defeat for Hezbollah, but a borderline disaster. Their arsenal of rockets was supposed to be used against Israel in the event of a strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities. Now most of the arsenal’s gone, along with huge swaths of the Hezbollah infrastructure. And for what? Two Israeli soldiers?

Money quote:

According to exclusive reports reaching DEBKAfile’s sources, the Iranian government believes that Israel and the United States are preparing a military operation for the coming October and November to strike Iran’s nuclear installations. It is therefore vital to keep the two armies fully occupied with other pursuits.

An October surprise. What would Josh Marshall say?

Update: Read the headline. Then read the article.

Update: Debka’s not the only one who thinks Hezbollah took a beating.


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It’s a tough week when your only good news is fantasies from DEBKA.

Clark1 on August 14, 2006 at 11:35 PM

Heh.

Allahpundit on August 14, 2006 at 11:38 PM

Re: update.

More rockets, so what? It’s only a violation when the Joooos shoot.

JollyRoger on August 14, 2006 at 11:47 PM

Debka’s line is well-argued IMO. The main consequence of Israel’s lackluster conduct/performance in the war, and the largest strategic setback for the West, is Hezbollah’s further undermining of Lebanese sovereignty which could lead to quasi-official support for Hez’s existence. That is something Iran can be happy about — unless they have some shorter-term need that is more important, such as Hezbollah in tip-top fighting shape for a manuever within the next 3-4 months.

Iran can only bank Hez’s political gains over the longer term, in the >6 mos. timeframe, as it will take them a while to rearm the Hezzies. In the meantime Hez is, objectively speaking, a weaker fighting force.

RD on August 15, 2006 at 3:25 AM

I agree this is well argued. When I heard last nite about the rockets not making it into Israel, that was my first thought. They have pushed them back and destroyed the big launchers to such an extent Hezbo is unable to reach Israel at this point. Now the FRENCH are on the way to assist the Lebanese Army (I know, a joke in there somewhere)in disarming the Hezbos. That is what is going to be interesting. Will Iran, ” a stablizing influence in an unstable region(quote a French Foreign Minister)REALLY order the Hezbos to resist or FIGHT their French buddies? STAY TUNED!

labwrs on August 15, 2006 at 8:34 AM

On a related note: Israeli F-15s downed over Lebanon

bdfaith on August 15, 2006 at 11:19 AM

bdfaith:

A month in the future? Is that some sort of satire site? Does the IAF even have F-15s?

JasonG on August 15, 2006 at 12:00 PM

Did anybody else listen to Gillerman on O’Reilly last night? It was a bit hard to continue watching after the CAIR interview… O’Reilly was OK, didn’t let him get away with too much but the guy refused to give a straight answer to WAAAY too man questions… (then again, did you expect anything different??)

Anyway, by the time Gillerman started to wind down at the end there was a great line. He was talking about the UN security council and he said something along the lines of “I don’t think they care for us much, but they care about their reputation and I think they realize they let the world down. Because if they’d have enforced 1559 they wouldn’t need 1701, and if they don’t enforce 1701 we don’t need them.” [emphasis mine throughout]

No kidding sherlock!

RH

RobertHuntingdon on August 15, 2006 at 2:09 PM

“Does the IAF even have F-15s?”

Yes, however … I was unaware homemade rockets could reach Tel Aviv from Lebanon. Especially ones that could kill 23 people a month in the future, when Netanyahu is Prime Minister.

darwin on August 15, 2006 at 3:05 PM

Scroll down about half way here if you would like to see a picture of an Israeli F-15 that landed with a missing wing.

DannoJyd on August 15, 2006 at 5:59 PM

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