Breaking: Olmert accepts UN ceasefire deal (UNSC passes ceasefire resolution)

posted at 5:32 pm on August 11, 2006 by Allahpundit

And is urging the Israeli government to approve it. The ground invasion is still on, but perhaps only until the UN votes on a resolution tonight or tomorrow.

No word yet on the terms, but I think I speak for all of us when I say: super.

Baseless speculation: Was the ground invasion a bluff, meant to pressure the UN into giving Israel a better deal?

Update: CNN says he won’t ask the Knesset to approve the deal until Sunday.

Update: The JPost has details of the resolution. 15,000 UN peacekeepers to “monitor the cessation of hostilities” and support the pathetic Lebanese army as they deploy to the south; an emphasis — not a demand — that the Israeli soldiers be released; and a call for Israel and Lebanon to work out a plan to disarm Hezbollah at some point in the future.

Enjoy this:

Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora received a copy of the US-French draft resolution, government officials said. He was studying the document and contacting politicians for their input, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

The officials refused to say whom Saniora was talking with, but the leading Lebanese Broadcasting Corp., said he was in touch with Hizbullah officials as well as parliament speaker Nabih Berri, Hizbullah’s de facto negotiator.

Olmert said earlier today that he wouldn’t agree to an expanded UNIFIL force. So much for that.

Update: Er, someone needs to tell Ynet that that photo‘s not the best one to illustrate Israeli airstrikes.

Update: The UN is set to vote on the resolution any minute now. The Lebanese government, by which I of course mean Hezbollah, has already signed on.

Over at the Counterterrorism Blog, Walid Phares sounds like he’s ready to open a vein:

“As soon as a cease fire occurs, the ‘Hezbollah Blitzkrieg’ will crumble the ‘Lebanese Republic of Weimar’ and install its own ‘Khumeinist Republic’ on the Eastern shores of the Mediterranean. The consequences of such a development are far beyond imagination for the region and the world. Hezbollah would have paved the way for Iran to create the mother of all world threats since Hitler.”

Update: Rick Moran‘s even more depressed than Phares. He compares what Israel was asking for a week ago with what it apparently got and calls it “abject surrender.” In fact, he notes, the resolution isn’t even being passed under Chapter 7, which would mean sanctions and/or military force if Lebanon doesn’t comply; it’s being passed under Chapter 6.

He thinks Olmert is finished.

Update: The Security Council passed the resolution unanimously. Kofi Annan says he’ll sit down with Israeli and Lebanese envoys this weekend to decide when the ceasefire should begin, so look forward to that. The text of the resolution is at the Corner. One minor bright point: it doesn’t specify which Chapter is operative, so in theory sanctions are still on the table.

Update: Captain Ed calls the resolution a mixed bag. He’s right that Narallah didn’t get what he originally wanted, namely, a prisoner swap. But he held onto power and increased his prestige immeasurably within the Arab world, something much more valuable. Ed’s also right that the resolution calls only for an immediate cessation of offensive operations by Israel (with no mention of an immediate withdrawal), but as with everything the UN does, the reality is less important than the symbolism. This will be received as the compromise that ends the war; if shooting breaks out again, the textual niceties will be glossed over. And we all know who’ll be blamed.

I wonder, whose prestige got the bigger boost tonight? Nasrallah’s or Kofi Annan’s?


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Comments

Lame. Dhimmi-capitulation. One step closer to Holocaust v2.0.

BirdEye on August 11, 2006 at 5:37 PM

Maybe he should take a que from the Muslims and say, Sure we have a cease fire, and keep on fighting anyway.

Like Mars Attacks:

Don’t run away, we are your friends

Kini on August 11, 2006 at 5:38 PM

The good news: There will be another chance for Israel to fight Hez.

The bad news: It’ll happen after several more innocent Israelis are captured and killed.

Savage on August 11, 2006 at 5:39 PM

If I may be allowed to borrow a word used by Allahpundit, Olmert is a flatulating “pussy’, and from what I’ve heard reported on Fox, the Israeli military thinks so too.

DannoJyd on August 11, 2006 at 5:42 PM

Cease fire in Islamic is Reload.

Kini on August 11, 2006 at 5:43 PM

Peace in our time!

bdfaith on August 11, 2006 at 5:45 PM

About a month ago I wrote: ‘I hate the sound of limited incursions in the morning. It sounds like defeat.’ Now it appears that predicted defeat will become a ‘f’ait accompli’. Right now I predict a quick end to Olmert who made the mighty Israeli Army a world laughing stock before a well-armed but rag-tag force of 3000 irregulars. Israel is now in serious trouble. In the macho Middle East perception is everything and that perception, thanks to Omert’s leadership, is that the Israeli Army is both cowardly and incompetent. Iran and Syria (and Hezbollah) will all be emboldened.

MaiDee on August 11, 2006 at 6:04 PM

This is not what it appears to be.

The march to the river continues, as it should. Very important!

The resolution might not be approved by the Israeli Cabinet, or an amended version will come back to the U.N.

The U.N. force will not be ready/able.

The deal will fall apart because one side or the other, or a third party didn’t follow it, or parts of it.

This is all for the ‘eyes of the world’, nuance/negotiation and U.N. malarkey.

I’m not pessimistic yet.

Entelechy on August 11, 2006 at 6:11 PM

Entelechy is right on this one. At first glance, I have to believe this is some Jihadi-style chessboxing. I don’t see the Knesset taking any deal that addresses IDF hostage return Godfather style (mention, don’t insist). Start the countdown until the first Bibimania post.

Kid from Brooklyn on August 11, 2006 at 6:19 PM

WTF!!!!! Olmert agrees to sacrifice those two Israeli soldiers!?!?!?!?! ASSHOLE!!! Olmert must go. This was a pathetic showing on the part of Israel.

Andy in Agoura Hills on August 11, 2006 at 6:22 PM

Bring Bibi Back!!!!!!!!!!!

Andy in Agoura Hills on August 11, 2006 at 6:24 PM

This is a total victory for Hezballah. Olmert is a wuss!

MCPO Airdale on August 11, 2006 at 6:24 PM

Peace in our time!

Not while Saudi’s teach their children to hate.

Not while Iran’s mulla’s exist.

It will take several generations to remove this Islamic Cancer from the world.

Kini on August 11, 2006 at 6:26 PM

What a sham! Lebanon cannot control Hezbollah and Hezbollah will continue to pursue the complete destruction of Israel. This will only make it much more difficult for Israel in their next Hezbollah encounter, and you can rest assured there will be another encounter. So many lives for nothing. When will these fools learn that there are only to acceptable outcomes to war . . . total defeat and capitulation.

rplat on August 11, 2006 at 6:38 PM

Gillermania!

“The Americans are aware of what we can accept and cannot accept,” said Israeli U.N. ambassador Dan Gillerman. “And I very much hope that in the end of the day there will not be submitted a draft that is unacceptable to us.”

Chessboxing.

Kid from Brooklyn on August 11, 2006 at 6:41 PM

One more UN pact engineered to fail.

My only hope is that President Bush is supporting this because he has three aces up his sleeve and one in his hand.

If everything is actually as it seems, it is just another world political blow against Israel, and an opportunity for Hezbollah to resupply and reorganize.

LegendHasIt on August 11, 2006 at 6:48 PM

sraeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making a huge error in giving Hezbollah a cease fire.

He tried to fight an air war that was a big mistake and then he finally went in with ground pounders.

They need to fight until Hezbollah surrenders.

This is nothing but more UN stupidity and our State Department pressuring Israel.

ScottyDog on August 11, 2006 at 7:26 PM

this is really a sad event and frankly it will cost Olmert dearly because it will become apparent that he could have destroyed hezbullah with a blitzkrieg but since he didn’t then he let the war drag on

Defector01 on August 11, 2006 at 7:35 PM

For the life of me I cannot figure out why the world continues to look to the U.N. to solve problems. Honestly, when was the last time the U.N. truly solved anything? What is their record in forging and keeping true peace after any conflict? I’ll bet they couldn’t properly conduct a luncheon.

The U.N. is corrupt and probably as much in the back pocket of Hezbollah/Iran as the Lebanese government. I would so love to see us kick their sorry butts out of our nation.

Bellicose Muse on August 11, 2006 at 8:05 PM

Walid Phares is correct about the endrun we can expect from the Hezranyians (Hezbollah-Iran-Syrans).

The Resolution is very vague but it does not call for a ceasefire. Any such thing would be unilateral as the Hezbollah are not a country with legitimate authority to be party to a ceasefire.

However, it does call for the cessation of fighting. It calls for the Hezbollah, specifically, to stop its attacks on Israel. It then outlines the conditions under which Israel would withdraw behind the Blue Line.

The return of the Israeli soldiers is unconditional. The part about Lebonese prisoners is limited to those taken during this war and who will be treated as Lebanese rather than as Hezbollah; the Lebanon government will negotiate for them and these will be released to that authority. There is no legitimatization of the “exchange” of Israeli hostages and prisoners of this war.

Israel will be replaced by a new UN force, still named UNIFIL, which will be empowered to fire upon the Hezbollah. However there is an intrinsic problem that Israel cannot fix for the Lebanon government. Let me describe the context first.

The buffer zone is yet to be determined, but I think the IDF will push well along the Syrian border up to the top of the Litani. The Hezbollah strongholds will be encircled and separated from the supply lines. During the draw-down, which will not proceed rapidly, those in the bunkers will have to surface to seek supplies or to receive supplies. But they will probably negotiate safe passage out of the buffer zone — or die fighting to the last bullet — before the UN can reach them. I think safe passage will be sought.

Israel will respond to any further rocket attacks. These attacks will not stop unless the Hezbollah are willing to loose the war. And they are not so willing. Instead, they will retreat, inch-by-inch, and stay within range of northern Israel. Even with the IDF dug-in, the Hezbollah will fire over the buffer zone. That will not change as the zone is transfered from Israel to the incoming UN force.

Meanwhile, the Hezbollah will turn north to over-run the Lebanon government. If it accomplishes that with minimal bloodshed, as it probably can do, then, it will regain control of the southern border via the authority of that unitary government and its national military.

That cannot be fixed by Israel. It cannot be prevented by Israel. The best hope for interrupting the takeover is to capture Narallah. But he is protected by the Iranians. These circumstances make it absolutely clear that Iran, not the Hezbollah, are the power to be reckoned with in Lebanon.

Syria will avert a fullblown confrontation with Israel along the Lebanon-Syrian border. They will wait for the French to take the ground. (I think if Turkey participates it will be barred from that border and will be deployed in the southwest instead). Resupply of the Hezbollah will then continue, apace, north of the buffer zone. This will be done beyond the reach of the UN mandate. Once the Hezbollah takeover of the Lebanon government is complete, with much help from the Syrian political, intelligence, and military operatives and sympathizers, the supply lines will be government-to-government, as sanctioned by this resolution.

Long story made short: this resolution invites the Hezranyians to take the reigns of legitimate power in Lebanon, including the Lebanon military, and reassert itself on the northern border with Israel.

If the Lebanon military sends its more effective units, these will be positioned far from the action in the north where Hezranyians will overtake the authorities in Beruit. The northern border of Lebanon will be much used in the short term as staging ground for the takeover.

However, as with the Israel withdrawal of 2000, the new lines will bring greater clarity. This resolution clearly makes the Lebanon government responsible for keeping the peace on its side of the shared border with Israel. Whatever happens before, during, and after the Hezranyian takeover, Israel will have clear standing to retaliate against any government-to-government provocations.

The matter of the Shebaa Farms is symbolic, as always. Syria and Lebanon can negotiate a change in those bits of turf; but Syria will not negotiate a comprehensive peace with Israel in exchange of a few farms. The UN can only get itself mired in a border dispute which can only be determined by neighboring sovereign states. So expect the Farms to be left open as a pretence for future hostilities.

I also think that the Israelis have purposefully portrayed their incursion as less effective than it has been. This, to achieve more on the diplomatic front — especially in this resolution. Once this resolution is approved, and it may yet be amended, it will setup the next round of this war with the Hezranyians. And the Israeli population will be all the more ready to use the full force of their airpower, and commando raid capabilities, to leap over the buffer zone (which will be useful tactically) and strike at the head of the enemy.

The resolution is not as cumbersome nor as negative for the Israelis as some might think on first look.

F. Rottles on August 11, 2006 at 11:33 PM

As a Christian, I see the hand of God in all of this-events are falling into place, even if it all looks like a mess to us. In the coming Millenial Kingdom, the entire planet will be a “Muslim-free zone.” Coolness cubed and squared.

Doug on August 12, 2006 at 1:25 AM

Endgame
Olmert and leftist Israeli govt. has proved a useless ally in war on terror. Had a freakkin month and wouldn’t use 10% of force we sent them. Useless unless used. Go, no go,too little, too late…even sells out his own soldiers. Poor Golanis deserve better leadership. I don’t expect much more US support for Israel, despite their terror surely continuing, until they get rid of the wishywahsy leftist olmert/kadima government. This is a good example of how the misguided planless left leaning US Democratic leadership is split on fighting the war on terror also. Expect to see the same results and deferrals to the UN from them.

Reality Check on August 12, 2006 at 2:26 AM

hey Doug
Just give Israel peace and the rest is fine

Defector01 on August 12, 2006 at 2:45 AM

‘they will say peace, peace, but there will be no peace’

LZVandy on August 12, 2006 at 8:42 AM

The essential tool of magicians is to get the minds of their audience to all go in a certain direction, and once this is accomplished the mind will either believe that something is there that is not really there, or to refuse to accept something is there that is actually there.

That is what we are dealing with in this U.N. resolution, they are conditioning the world to think that there will be peace between Hezbollah and Israel because of U.N. troops being a buffer between the combatants; but at the core of militant Islam is the absolute goal of the destruction of Israel no matter the costs; and Hezbollah, like all of militant Islam will adapt and they will continue to finds ways to attack Israel either directly or through Hamas or others. This is all smoke and mirrors, pure cosmetics and underneath it all Hezbollah will remain the same human cancer it has always been, only it will metastisize and become more virulent.

Olmert as Mayor of Jersulaem was always a prince of appeasement, he is incapable of leading Israel in any war against militant Islam; and if the Knesset votes for this U.N. crap Israeli citizens will suffer from their stupidity. In war there is absolutely no substitute for victory, any thing short of that is defeat, appeasement and disgrace.

Umnumzana on August 12, 2006 at 11:58 AM

Here’s my armchair general analysis of what is happening now Allapundit. Israel has pulled the wool over a lot of eyes. They have feigned weakness and discord. And now, at the point of cease fire, they have put troops on the Litani River, and they have troops in the south of Lebanon. The Lebanese Government missed a desperately needed opportunity to send troops, any troops, into southern Lebanon before any cease fire. The Israelis have now in effect, become the occupation force of South Lebanon. So, let there be a cease fire. The Israelis will eradicate Hezbollah below the Litani River at their leisure, because Hezbollah is now trapped and cut off. No resupply can be done now via air, water, or highway. Cease fire? Sure, but NORTH of the Litani! It was a master stroke of strategy, and when the UN wakes up and discovers that it has been snookered, there are going to be howls of outrage, but it is too late now.

Khyber Pass on August 12, 2006 at 3:25 PM

Yes Khyber, that’s a good way to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, but the leftist Kadimas tie the military’s hands, drop leaflets announcing their intentions, and then bomb empty buildings and roads to the point of running low on bombs.

Olmert was supposed to remove the Iranian “deterrent” to US attack ie:threatening Israel with its hizzbo-terrorist proxies. Iran jumped the gun and didn’t expect the reaction, presenting the perfect opportunity to both destroy the Iranian deterrent and provoke Iranian action allowing the US to cause regime change in Iran while Israel easily took out the Syrian forces. The Shiite’s enemies, the UN, and 2/3 of the Lebanese were quietly waiting. The people and tactical nukes were all forward shipped and ready. Kadima blew it. Olmert and Kadima are useless.

Reality Check on August 12, 2006 at 6:50 PM

Khyber Pass, you nailed it!!!!!! I’ve been trying to indirectly/directly convey this message for days.

Cease fire? Sure, but NORTH of the Litani! It was a master stroke of strategy, and when the UN wakes up and discovers that it has been snookered, there are going to be howls of outrage, but it is too late now.

This plan was approved about a week ago, no matter what you hear from anyone in the media, or not. It is a strategic masterstroke, indeed!

Entelechy on August 12, 2006 at 7:01 PM

Considering that we should have been hunting down and exterminating Hezbollah ourselves since they attacked us and killed 300 Marines in the early 80’s, but instead we have done little or nothing about them since then, the idea that we would just sit back and let Israel make a half hearted attempt to kill off a few of them while the world bitched was ugly from the start.

Same old stupid story, politicians won’t let the military actually do their job, so more innocent people are gona die because of it.

NRA4Freedom on August 13, 2006 at 12:59 AM

Thank you Entelechy.

The Israeli Government is stating that it is agreeing to a cessation of “offensive” actions, however it reserves the right to destroy Hezbollah weapons and to defend themselves against Hezbollah. My advice to the Hezbos – FLEE FOR YOUR LIVES YOU IDIOTS! YOU JUST GOT THE RUG PULLED OUT FROM UNDER YOU BIG TIME!

Khyber Pass on August 13, 2006 at 12:34 PM

Khyber, I have been trying to say this too, but inelegantly. Thanks for spelling it out in much better language. Did you see where Hezzbollah is backing out of the “ceasefire” today? Bush and Rice did a nice setup for Israel to get more time to really put the hurt on Hezzbollah. I think most people are too passionate right now to focus on the larger game afoot. I was happy to see your post, since I thought maybe I was seeing only what I wanted to see. I noticed the offensive operations part of the resolution was to cease, which is why Israel acheived their offensive goal this weekend. Now they can clean out Southern Lebanon, while Nasrallah is facing the music in a much pissed off North Lebanonl. His southern base of support is now in the hands of the Israelis.

Stormy70 on August 13, 2006 at 12:58 PM

Thanks Stormy70. It begins to dawn on Hezbollah and Nasrallah that they’ve been outmaneuvered. Hey guys – “sleep with one eye open, gripping your pillow tight.” Soon it’s going to be “Exit light, enter night.” Buh Bye nimrods. (And thanks to Metallica for “Enter Sandman.)

“His southern base of support is now in the hands of the Israelis.”

Ha ha! Don’t you love it when a good plan comes together? (It’s bush’s fault, er it’s Rove’s fault, er, it’s a VRWC)

Khyber Pass on August 13, 2006 at 2:13 PM

Did you notice the major ground offensive occurred right after the UN vote? Israel won’t be leaving until certain conditions are met, and I doubt they will be sitting still while awaiting those conditions. Anyone who thinks Nasrallah can’t see the writing on the wall is fooling themselves.

Stormy70 on August 13, 2006 at 2:29 PM

Yes, I did notice Stormy, and I broke into a big wide grin. Nasralla knows the writing’s on the wall – it says “Hezbollah is expendable.”

Khyber Pass on August 13, 2006 at 4:27 PM