Osamamania! NY Daily News says Bin Laden back in command
posted at 4:49 pm on July 5, 2006 by Allahpundit
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Their source? Michael Scheuer. Coincidentally, the report comes one day after the Times revealed that the CIA had closed the unit devoted to finding Bin Laden that was founded by Scheuer and named after his son.
Scheuer wrote a book critical of Bush, which, ipso facto, means his assessment must be correct. And yet — I’m puzzled:
The flurry of messages from Osama Bin Laden and his deputy this year suggests the pair is regaining control over Al Qaeda operations for the first time since the U.S. toppled the Taliban, two top experts told the Daily News.
“It means their command and control over Al Qaeda is probably stronger than we thought it was,” said Michael Scheuer, who ran the CIA’s Osama Bin Laden unit and is the author of “Imperial Hubris.”…
[T]he messages do suggest Al Qaeda leaders are probably able to communicate as easily with henchmen plotting attacks as they are with operatives putting the tapes on the Internet, according to Scheuer and Peter Bergen, two of the foremost American experts on Bin Laden.
I thought the flurry of messages was supposed to indicate Osama’s and Zawahiri’s worries over being usurped by Zarqawi and the jihadis in Iraq — i.e., a loss of control over Al Qaeda. That was the theory last month, anyway. And why does the fact that Osama has contact with video production people necessarily mean he’s controlling operations? Presumably the video crew is operating within a fairly close orbit; the further afield his messengers go, particularly overseas, the greater the risk that they’ll be intercepted and lead the CIA or Pakistani ISI back to him. He’s got a cozy little figurehead niche happening now. Why risk it?
The Times quotes an interesting bit from a book about counterterror ops in its article about the CIA’s Bin Laden task force:
In his book “Ghost Wars,” which chronicles the agency’s efforts to hunt Mr. bin Laden in the years before the Sept. 11 attacks, Steve Coll wrote that some inside the agency likened Alec Station to a cult that became obsessed with Al Qaeda.
“The bin Laden unit’s analysts were so intense about their work that they made some of their C.I.A. colleagues uncomfortable,” Mr. Coll wrote. Members of Alec Station “called themselves ‘the Manson Family’ because they had acquired a reputation for crazed alarmism about the rising Al Qaeda threat.”
A little more alarmism throughout the agency in 2001 would have been a good thing. On the other hand, “crazed alarmism” is a nifty description for the way some Bin Laden experts talk about him. I remember watching Yossef Bodansky, who wrote a book of his own about Bin Laden, making the rounds on the cable news shows after 9/11. WMD attacks were imminent, he said; there was nothing we could do to stop Bin Laden from asserting his will, such was his evil genius. If anything, invading Afghanistan would make the problem worse — although not invading Afghanistan wouldn’t save us either.
No big point here. Just an observation that some of the hardcore Bin Laden experts tend to go a bit native in describing his capacities. Either that or they know things about Al Qaeda’s nuke/bio arsenal that we don’t, in which case “crazed alarmism” is perfectly appropriate.
For the record, Pakistan says the trail’s gone cold. Meanwhile, in Britain, a quarter of the population thinks Islam is a threat to the British way of life. To which 36% of British Muslims respond by saying right back atcha.
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Ummm… if these “Experts” knew so much about Binny buddy… then why didn’t THEY catch him?
Sorry… its a case of those who failed and quit, yacking about those who are still trying and may succeed.
Romeo13 on July 5, 2006 at 5:08 PM
I could have sworn the NY Times et al. was their media wing.
JammieWearingFool on July 5, 2006 at 5:11 PM
The CIA is right to focus its efforts on the Zarqawi replacement and other tyrants, instead of the cave-man or hut-dweller, with such lack of courage. Zarqawi was a beast but at least he wasn’t hiding all the time.
If he is still alive, and leads are good, they’ll still go after him. After Dec. 2001, as far as I’m concerned he is ‘dead’. Incapacitated! Finished! Al Zawahiri looks really old and sick lately - he is the more dangerous one of the two.
Scheuer and the other have-beens need a source of income and glory. When you’re out you’re out and don’t have any more access. Don’t pretend otherwise. It’s all speculation.
Yesterday all the ‘experts’ from the Clinton-era came out to yak it up on the North Korea topic. They were a complete failure since their agreement was reneged - go back into the sand and incubate further, trying to rewrite history. History is what happened and not what anyone wishes would have happened.
What is the matter with the other 75% of the Brits?
Entelechy on July 5, 2006 at 5:28 PM
If this clown (Michael Scheuerch) is such an expert:
1) why didn’t they take bin Laden out? They only had years to do it.
2) Why isn’t he still at the CIA where I’m sure “experts” are highly prized.
darwin on July 5, 2006 at 5:44 PM
If the trail is cold, how do we know whether or not his communicating more, or less?
Think about this one for a minute.
Then answer this question. How many really believe we don’t know where Osama is?
One of the best intelligence sources we have is knowing where he is and intercepting his communications. In this way we can track the communications back to his lieutenants in other parts of the world. We then start sweeping up his lieutenants. Point is that Osama may well better for us alive and kicking than pushing up daisies.
Lawrence on July 5, 2006 at 5:45 PM
Good point, Lawrence. That’s probably why the treason times and all the dhimmicrats want us to get him so bad. I mean, they’ll do anything ELSE to make it harder on us to win, why not that too?
RH
RobertHuntingdon on July 5, 2006 at 6:00 PM
“One of the best intelligence sources we have is knowing where he is and intercepting his communications”.
Nope, the ACLU filed an “infringement on being able to carry out terrorism” lawsuit in behalf of bin Laden. Thanks to this and the NY Times, the NSA had to voluntarily stop monitoring his communications.
Not …. well, it is possible, and plausible.
darwin on July 5, 2006 at 6:01 PM
OK, I guess I’ll take the bull by the horns for the administration.
“The Government of the United States (the people) announces that Osama Bin Ladin without a doubt is dead. If by some chance he still lives, he’s in such poor physical condition he is unable to carry out any actions against the Free World.”
There, see how easy it was? I’m 99.99% sure he’s moldering in the grave. If not, he’s on the run or holed up in some dank cave in Pakistan or Afghanistan.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The fact that Osama’s “appearances” are not dateable shows he is not among us. How hard is it to bring a recent newspaper with the equipment when Osama’s so-called statements are recorded? Not hard. Therefore, he’s dead. It would be nice if someone else in authority would make a definitive statement.
ScottG on July 5, 2006 at 7:01 PM
ScottG,
Why make a “definitive statement” if it is more useful to keep ‘em guessing. Psychological warfare is also -fare.
The MSM some day will have their jaw drop several feet on this subject.
Entelechy on July 5, 2006 at 7:09 PM
Just because Osama is long dead doesn’t mean that he ISN’T in command….
Zawahiri hired Miss Cleo to channel Osama’s instructions from beyond the grave and Mohammed al RichLittle to do the voice for the audio tapes.
LegendHasIt on July 5, 2006 at 7:27 PM
ROFL!!
That’s like saying the Quarterback of the football team is “Back in Command” after having the running back and the wide receiver run over by a Mac Truck.
Heh! Up is down and black is white in the MSM.
venmax on July 5, 2006 at 9:35 PM
Scheuer is an idiot, as is anyone who thinks Osama’s ability to produce his little home videos indicates some kind of serious command and control capability. All it takes to produce Osama’s kind of videos is a laptop with iMovie, a digital camcorder, a firewire cable and a few lights and a mic and enough electricity to power the setup. That’s it. They’re not doing anything serious or creative, and certainly not anything that takes any degree of technical sophistication at all. I read a story the other day about the guy who produces Osama’s vlogs–he’s even less knowledgeable than the guy who produces Rocketboom. If Scheuer is a CIA super-geeeenius, we might as well give up on that whole organization. It’s full of ignorami.
Bryan on July 5, 2006 at 10:49 PM
So. Lemme get this straight.
A moonbat was in charge of the unit tasked with catching and/or killing obl, and they failed the task to the point where the unit has to be disbanded?
Wow. Just no way at all of seeing that coming…
/sarc
techno_barbarian on July 5, 2006 at 11:32 PM
Well, it’s just because the
enemy, I mean the Dems keep harping on “where’s Osama?, You haven’t captured Osama, Bush is a failure.” A definitive statement would shut them up. Then it makes them look like they hope Osama’s alive just to hurt the President.ScottG on July 5, 2006 at 11:58 PM
Bryan, fortunately Scheuer is out. If he would be the ’super-geeeenius’ he pretends to be, he’d still be in. I don’t believe the CIA of today is full of ignorami but it still has a few remnants from the previous admin. which didn’t give a rat’s a-s about the CIA and the military.
ScottG, they didn’t shut up when Zarqawi was killed. If Mr. Bush knows what’s going on why would he care what they call him? They already look about as bad as it can get. Their colors have been shown and the populace is naive but not completely stupid.
What they (the Dems) will say, hawever, is that Karl Rove orchestrated North Korea, just in time for Nov. And maybe that he’s hiding Osama in his basement too.
Entelechy on July 6, 2006 at 1:23 AM
1) Osama’s value is largely symbolic. Capturing him would be a blow to AQ. It’s nonsense that his capture wouldn’t matter. (Litmus test: given the choice, how do you think Rove would choose–catch him/don’t catch him? You can see this is not a serious question.)
2) However, the advantage to not capturing him is it seems to keep the terrorists’ loyalties somewhat split. If Osama is captured, it makes room for a new number 1 who could (may?)operate more openly, not a good thing.
honora on July 6, 2006 at 11:40 AM