Is the Zarqawi safehouse document bogus?
posted at 10:25 am on June 16, 2006 by Allahpundit
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Michael Ledeen thinks it’s a plant aimed at convincing useful idiots that the Iranian threat is nothing but an Al Qaeda psy-op.
Here’s the document; the closing section does have, shall we say, an “air” about it. But if it’s a fake designed to furnish the MoveOn crowd with evidence that BUSH LIED in advance of a confrontation, why didn’t Iran go for the gold and write it up as a joint Al Qaeda/U.S. government psy-op instead? Granted, the military wouldn’t have allowed the Iraqis to display that at a press conference, but surely it could have been leaked through other channels. Think of all the Larry “Rove killed his mother” Johnson TV appearances we’d have been treated to. Ah, missed opportunities.
Ledeen’s also right that the alleged “safehouse” document wasn’t actually found in Zarqawi’s safehouse, thus making its provenance that much murkier:
Although the office of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said the document was found in al-Zarqawi’s hideout following a June 7 airstrike that killed him, U.S. military spokesman Maj. Gen. William Caldwell said the document had in fact been found in a previous raid as part of an ongoing three-week operation to track al-Zarqawi.
“We can verify that this information did come off some kind of computer asset that was at a safe location,” he said. “This was prior to the al-Zarqawi safe house.”
Here’s the thing. If it’s as obviously bogus as Ledeen says it is, I have to believe someone in U.S. intel realized that too. Yeah, I know, the CIA is incompetent, but they’re not that incompetent. Either they know something about this document that we don’t that makes them believe it’s legitimate or else they know it’s bogus but believe there’s greater advantage to be had in publicizing it than in suppressing it. Perhaps the military thinks it can roll up the rest of Al Qaeda in Iraq and achieve some sort of Iraqi national reconciliation before the Iranian crisis comes to a head. The idea of Iran as an AQ psyop won’t hold much water if there isn’t an AQ around anymore to conduct it, so maybe it’s worth floating the document now in order to demoralize the jihadi remnants and press our advantage.
Here’s what I can’t figure out, though. If we’re going to pass fake intelligence, why not just concoct our own? Ledeen’s certainly right that the nonsense about Iran at the end of the document does us no good, so why leave it in there? Why not redact it or produce our own phony terrorist communiques to circulate among the enemy? The only explanation I can think of is paranoia at the possibility that some of the disinformation would be exposed and we’d have a whole new round of BUSH LIED, etc. Imagine how disappointed Andrew Sullivan would be.
One more bit of news worth noting. I wrote yesterday that al-Maliki was considering granting amnesty to jihadis who’ve attacked U.S. troops. By yesterday afternoon, he had officially unconsidered it. The record is hereby corrected.
Update: StrategyPage: “Al Qaeda in Iraq has been virtually wiped out by the loss of an address book.”
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They just can’t stand it can they?
Dread Pirate Roberts VI on June 16, 2006 at 10:44 AM
The Al Zarqawi document basically tells a story of success of Bush’s policy for the war in Iraq!
Al Zarqawi suffered great losses in man power,networks, and political supports. He was losing the war because of the establishment of the Iraqi securtiy force and government.
The Demo big guns think to themselves…this cannot possibly be real! Everything we attacked Bush for failing in Iraq, the Al Zarqawi dead fool confirmed it that Bush is winning the war! So…AP opened the escape hatch for them…this document could be fraud.
Can they see Al Zarqawi is dead?
Can they see the new government is functioning well?
Can they see the violence in Iraq is going down rapidly each day the Iraqis Security Force is taking over the defense of their country?
Can they see the results verified Al Zarqawi’s concern?
Can the Democrats just open their eyes and take a good look at what is happening in Iraq?
Can they see the oil production from Iraq is very stable?
Can they see the Iraqis are going to the Kurd areas for vacationing?
Bush is winning the war in Iraq and the war in terrorism.
That, is a fact. And the Democrats better get used to it.
easy87us on June 16, 2006 at 11:28 AM
On the message board I frequent, that’s the popular refrain from the libs. It couldn’t possibly be real. It doesn’t read like a terrorist communication. Well, it doesn’t.
It does read like more like a business plan or at least a private ‘interoffice memo’ though. We know these guys weren’t stupid so while I’m not prepared to completely believe it is authentic (regardless of whether or not the information is correct), I do think it could very well be. I would like some more official verification though, if anything to twist the moonbats up a little more.
Darksean on June 16, 2006 at 11:31 AM
We should never cut and run. We and the Iraq’s are making great progress toward a democracy. Newly elected offials and a new constitution in such a short time is incredible.
The Dem’s just can’t stand it that things are going so well despite what you read in the paper and hear on lefty alphabet TV.
GW has the tenacity to stay the course and do the right thing instead of putting his finger in the wind like the previous “leader” did. All talk and no action is what got us to where we were on 9-11.
God BLess GW to stay the course to the end.
BJB
bjb on June 16, 2006 at 11:36 AM
I believe the AP first reported the story. Let them explain it.
Remember way back when we used to believe the media? ;o)
DannoJyd on June 16, 2006 at 11:42 AM
I actually find this document fairly believable.
Remember that we don’t know who actually wrote this doc, and much like an internal business doc, was written in bullet format to be clear.
Remember that many of the Wahabists were educated in the West.
As to the tactics described? Very realistic and attempting to use the current Iran/US tension and escalate it further to drive us into a “wider conflict”.
Remeber that the Islamic world is not really united… it has various leaders trying for supremacy. Iran and AQ both want control in the end…
Romeo13 on June 16, 2006 at 12:08 PM
Reality Check!
Of course the documents are bogus!
The Iraq War’s a mess and we’re losing!
9-11 was a plot by disgruntled air traffic controllers who were fired by Reagan!
Hillary will make a great president and her ankles are not too thick!
More often that not, Kerry really does wear the pants in his family, usually!
Ann Coulter’s a skank!
MM’s hot!
We’re all Nazis
The planet’s under attack!
If we cut oil consumption by 50% the price would drop 50%
Dan Rather’s brilliant.
Need I go on!
(Hey it’s nice to know that there’s still one thing we can all agree upon!)
Dread Pirate Roberts VI on June 16, 2006 at 12:27 PM
DPR — Who’s “they”? You realize that Michael Ledeen is a famous neoconservative, right? He’s not on the other side. Sheesh.
Allahpundit on June 16, 2006 at 12:29 PM
New headline: Is the A.P. bogus? Is CNN bogus? Is the NYT bogus? etc etc.
They think “We don’t like it, therefore it can’t be true!”
I think “Zarqawi. Now where do I know that name from? Zarqawi, Zarqawi, I know I’ve heard that name before. Oh yeah, he’s that DEAD guy!”
I hope the F-16 Pilot who dropped his load on the Zman’s not-so-safehouse said right before he pushed the release button “Hey terrorist, terrorize THIS!”
Tony737 on June 16, 2006 at 12:37 PM
Given how the Z-man was working with the mullahs (Iranian that is) I think its quite possible Zarq had a doc exonerating them, they know how the MSM and moonbats would cudgel Bush with it if he had to use force against the mullahs.
Iblis on June 16, 2006 at 12:56 PM
Hmmmm. I am not going to address the issue of the language style (lack of the term “crusader” or “rejectionist”) in the document, or the fact tht it seems to have a memo style to it. I haven’t analyzed any originals, so I can’t speak about that.
But, from the point of view of a Sunni Terrorist named Zarqawi, would the memo make sense? Perhaps.
Would things be much tougher for the U.S. if we had to fight a ground war in Iran and Iraq at the same time? Yes, so this could be to Zarqawi’s advantage. This is why I could see him wanting to have Iran involved in the ground battle.
Some have brought up the fact that them memo mentions all the help that Iran is providing to the U.S in Iraq and Afghanistan. Kinda out of my area of experise, but Zarqawi is a Sunni, and hates Shiites only slightly less than Americans, correct? He has tried to get a Sunni / Shiite civil war going on. Perhaps he mistrusts the Iranian shiites and thinks they are helping us more than they really are. What if the Iranians are cracking down on, or at least not giving Zaraqawi as much help as he would like? Might he then not misiterpret this as meaning that the Iranian were working with the Americans against him? The Iranians are supporting the insurgency. But perhaps they are keeping Zarqawi at a distance and are helping the Shiite and Sunni local insuregents, as opposed to the foreign terrorists? And might this not make Zarqawi suspicious?
Crud. This sort of topic needs a lot of time to make sense out of. And I don’t have that time. But, I think a lot of people are trying to make this document fit into THEIR own world view. This is why the Moonbats automatically think it is proof that “Bush lied, people died. CIA fake.” And since we are convinced that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons, and needs to be stopped, anything that contradicts that is seen as suspicious. So we react very negatively to a memo that says something that could give moonbats ammo to use against us.
But if we look at this from the point of view of Zarqawi, it seems to make a little more sense. IMHO.
Also, remember, just because Zarqawi says to invent fake evidence that iran is making nukes doesn’t mean that Iran isn’t making nukes. And I don’t think it is likely that Iran would let Zarqawi know anything about its own nuke program. They would almost certainly keep all that information from him as much as possible. So any “information” that Zarqawi would leak about Iran’s nuculear ambitions would have to be fake, correct?
Just my two cents.
EFG on June 16, 2006 at 1:07 PM
Bush lied: al-Zarqawi isn’t dead. Neither is Elvis.
dman on June 16, 2006 at 1:53 PM
Regardless of whether this document is real, it is still without question that in the days leading up to the attack that turned Zarqawi into worm food that we received a lot of invaluable intelligence, and recovered even more thereafter. There were 17 raids conducted nearly concurrently with the bombing of Zarqawi’s love shack and there have been many more since then, and that is not merely a coincidence.
thirteen28 on June 16, 2006 at 1:59 PM
Is it safe to assume that Ledeen is own our side? If the document is fake, why broadcast that point when the documents supports your side? If it was faked by the CIA, there was a purpose behind it. And assuming the CIA is opposed to the terrorists and the Iranians, why hinder the PsyOp by announcing it during the war and give the liberal Democrats more fodder to throw at Bush?
Am I missing something here?
.
GT on June 16, 2006 at 2:39 PM
Oh my God, the document is a fake? I feel so used and abused. And I didn’t know Mary Mapes was even in Iraq last week . . . .
csjd on June 16, 2006 at 3:11 PM
Bin Laden and Zarqawi belong/ed:) to the Salafy branch of Sunni Islam, which is highly intolerant of Shiites.
Most Iranians are Shiites, but they consider themselves superior to the Iraqi Shiites. However, they are still ‘brothers’. Difficult for the U.S. to tango with Iran. There are advantages and disadvantages from so many angles.
Whether the document is authentic or not, most important are the statistics in the StrategyPage - over 1000 captured or dead and counting, valuable information for weeks to come, gaining the upper hand tactically and in the media: ours, the Arabic one, and other (yes, the Guardian too, not that it matters). Best of all to have the terrorists guessing and on the defensive.
And what to say about Mr. Murtha shouting yesterday “…we can’t win militarily…bla, bla, bla”? And Ms. Pelosi. And all the despairing groups on the Left, the U.N., the world really (not all of it but a good chunk of it).
This will give the Sunday talks fodder and the ‘fly-over’ section of the country will read into the eagerness with which the usual suspects focus on the negative and the ‘but..and what if’, instead of the facts.
Be pure, be for good, and be happy! Things are going surprisingly well.
Entelechy on June 16, 2006 at 3:20 PM
Fake or not…I don’t care. Different things happen in war; Some legit, some planted. As long as the document contributes to our cause, I’m good.
I still can’t believe how someone can convince themselves that turning the clock back 500 years is what is best for the world. It takes Jim Jones to a sick new level. I guess centuries of humiliation and irrelevance takes a toll.
Shmo on June 16, 2006 at 3:27 PM
Right on, Shmo. What’s a little propaganda amongst friends?
dman on June 16, 2006 at 3:47 PM
“Right on, Shmo. What’s a little propaganda amongst friends?”
Ask the WW2 generation.
.
GT on June 16, 2006 at 4:51 PM
(I was being sarcastic, GT. Propaganda is an integral part of warfare.)
dman on June 16, 2006 at 7:51 PM
Ah….
My apologies for misunderstanding.
.
GT on June 16, 2006 at 8:58 PM
GT: My comment wasn’t clear enough - no problem. Let’s just hope that the info recovered from Z is a real body blow to AQ, regardless of whether this piece is real or planted.
dman on June 16, 2006 at 10:19 PM
Agreed!
.
GT on June 17, 2006 at 9:22 AM
“Dan Rather’s brilliant.”
You made milk come out my nose and I wasn’t even drinkin’ any milk. I’ll bet it hurt when you wrote that.
“Bush lied: al-Zarqawi isn’t dead. Neither is Elvis.”
True, but unlike al-Zarqawi, Elvis left the building.
“I hope the F-16 Pilot who dropped his load on the Zman’s not-so-safehouse said right before he pushed the release button “Hey terrorist, terrorize THIS!” ”
Or better yet, الله هو الشّيطان
Translated: Allah is Satan!
RolandHall on June 18, 2006 at 5:34 PM