Three dumb polls

posted at 9:34 pm on June 1, 2006 by Allahpundit

I don’t really want to blog them all but the rule of three requires it.

Let’s dispense with the stupidest one right now. It doesn’t require comment, I don’t think. Moving right along.

Pew has a new study probing the political consciousness of what it calls “the DotNet generation,” which is their headline-grabbing way of describing adults 18 to 29. I’ll call them “young adults.” The most interesting number: although voter registration among young adults is at least ten points lower than any other group, and although they “always vote” only 24% of the time, they scored twelve points higher than the rest of the population when it came to trying to persuade people whom to vote for in 2004. Fifty-six percent of them copped to that, while only 49% actually turned out to vote. What the hell happened to that seven percent? Too jaded from Bush’s lies to actually go down there and pull the lever or what?

I can’t quite figure this out, either:

party-id-by-age.gif

Everything makes sense until 50. We begin idealistically, reality intrudes, we settle down and start voting our wallets — but where does that blue Matterhorn in the fifties come from? I could understand it happening at 60 when you’re inducted into AARP, but according to the graph the number of Democrats actually declines a bit at that age.

Hmmm. The peak comes at 56. People who are 56 now were born in 1950, which would have made them 18 in … 1968. So I guess that’s the explanation. They came of age, turned hippie, protested the war and never looked back. Super.

The study ends with an issue-by-issue breakdown of young-adult opinion. Note the numbers on abortion, corporations, and privatizing social security. What would the nutroots say?

Finally, from Quinnipiac, who’s the worst president since WWII? Who else?

worst-president3.png

The religious divide is interesting, but this is a party-line vote, of course:

worst-president.png

First, let me express my embarrassment at the fact that more Republicans voted for Clinton here than for the comprehensive failure that was Jimmy Carter. Granted, both men were miserable on terrorism, but at least Clinton managed to keep the prime rate under 20%. Second, let me express my even more profound embarrasment at the fact that all of two percent of Democrats chose Carter. Can that possibly be right? Only one out of every fifty Democrats will cop to the fact that Jimmy Carter was the worst president since World War II? Do the Camp David accords mean that much to the other 49? What bit of nostalgia from the halcyon days of 1978 are they holding on to here?

Third, note that more Republicans were willing to call Bush the worst than Democrats were willing to call Reagan the worst. I was a kid during Reagan’s presidency but still politically astute enough to recall him being roundly derided as a militaristic imbecile who would surely get us all killed soon enough — a generational criticism of Republican presidents, as it turns out. So what explains the restrospective respect for Reagan among lefties? The end of the Cold War, of course, but surely there’s also an element of BDS at play: as much as they might loathe Reagan, it’s an article of faith that the sheer awfulness of Bush cannot be approached by any leader this side of Germany circa 1938. Reagan was bad, but he’s not Hitler.

As a parting shot, check out the parity among both parties calling Nixon the worst ever. I’d love to know what those numbers would look like in an alternate universe where Nixon was a Democrat. 18-15 the other way, you think?

Blowback

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Comments

I don’t think they dare to open the geographical sample.

I bet you they took most of the samples from big cities where liberals dwell.

easy87us on June 1, 2006 at 10:01 PM

Carter beats Clinton in the overall numbers too. That’s surprising. So is the Dem love for Reagan.

Is it just melancholy? Nostalgia?

Pablo on June 1, 2006 at 10:19 PM

That’s such crap.

The same people who said Dubya is the worst president now are the same people who hated Reagan in the 80′s – thought he was a dumb, incompetent cowboy…. and look at what Reagan got in that same poll…

Ironically enough they don’t seem to remember LBJ either! Talk about eating your own…

venmax on June 1, 2006 at 10:22 PM

Wow, Bush beats out Jimmeh and the Prince of Darkness (Nixon) as the worst in total! That’s really saying something. Of course, fickle people that we are he’s here and the others are not. It’s easier to forget much or some of the bad when you’ve had 20 or more years pass. In 2028 someone else will be considered the worst.

Bellicose Muse on June 1, 2006 at 10:37 PM

In fact, I am sure they all take samples from a set of area codes that favor liberals.

Challenge them to open up their data base and we can have a barrel of laugh! Make them poll NY and Illinois suberbs and you could say that both states are predominant Republicans.

I can make California look like reagan country again….just don’t poll San Francisco, LA, Sacrmento, and Mount Shasta.

Like what they did to Kerry in 2004. They did the poll in noon and found that Kerry led by 6% average. Only Drudge Report found out that they poll 60% female votes!

They are a bunch of freaking con men. Pollster are just con men.

easy87us on June 1, 2006 at 10:47 PM

More nonsense polls? Sheesh!

I was at 2 different polling places in the last Presidential election as an official observer, and young adults were rarly seen throughout the 12 hour long day.

I do remember one lil blonde who claimed that her Union had registered her to vote several months beforehand though. No paperwork was found to confirm that, and her vote was thus challenged.

I lost a few ‘friends’ that day. ;o)

DannoJyd on June 2, 2006 at 1:05 AM

Polls are as useful as a monkey with a gun…hmmm come to think of it, it would seem the pollsters and monkeys with guns are about the same.

Cpilot on June 2, 2006 at 2:07 AM

I don’t know why, but it just really amuses me that there are a few
people out there who, in answering the interracial dating question,
said “I don’t know.”

Alex K on June 2, 2006 at 3:07 AM

It’s also funny that there are some people out there who singled out Gerald Ford as the worst president of the post-war era. Gerald Ford. Are they blaming him for the 70s? Over Nixon or Carter? Do they think pardoning Nixon was worse than being Nixon? Do they blame him for Chevy Chase?

Alex K on June 2, 2006 at 3:23 AM

I find it interesting that anyone voted for Carter for anything, since I was in Georgia when he ran and got elected President. Why did he run for president? The citizens of Georgia realized how incompetent he was in dealing with the state legislature and getting anything done and kicked him out of office after one term. Then he runs for president and gets elected. HAHAAHAH. God. People are nuts.

One other thing no one has mentiond: Carter is obviously related to Clinton, the proof is Chelsea. Looks just like Jimmy. Hmmm. Wonder if Hillary ever went to Plains for a short “vacation”?

clyde on June 2, 2006 at 7:08 AM

Exercise in futility. How many of those polled were even alive when Carter was in charge? All most people know of him is he is a nice old man who builds houses. Also, you can not compare the past with todays knowledge against today without the knowledge of the future.

Wade on June 2, 2006 at 8:51 AM

I wouldn’t even begin to try to comment on the results of polls that try to ID voting habits, voting results and demographic breakdowns when the past two presidential elections proved beyond a doubt that polling on these issues only produces laughably apocryphal results.

Prophet on June 2, 2006 at 9:26 AM

Carter – double digit inflation, double digit interest rates, gas shortages, iran hostage crisis
Bush II – record high Dow, cheap money, rockin’ economy, no terrorist attack in 5 years, best housing starts in 20 years, consistent economic growth, good job creation, (there’s more, just being lazy)

yep. that seals it. bush is the worst president ever. sarcasm off/

pullingmyhairout on June 2, 2006 at 10:00 AM

These poll jokers think themseves into stupidity. I remember when Reagan was president, the polls said everyone hated him because of the MX missle deployment in Euorpe. I took statistics in college, and the stated “margin of error” numbers don’t always accurately reflect people that lie their ass off.
What you do see though is that many young people reflect what they hear, and that is that politicians are so corrupt and such untrustworthy liars that voting doesn’t really matter anyway. It’s tweedle dee or trweedle dum.

Shmo on June 2, 2006 at 10:29 AM

“Figures don’t lie, but liars DO figure”

Duty, Honor, Country
(in THAT order)
Rowane

Rowane on June 2, 2006 at 10:36 AM

I teach survey methods among other courses at my university. I, too, found much of the data presented here didn’t make sense. I will concentrate on the religious divide concerning whether Bush has been the worst president since WWII.

According to the Quinnipiac Poll, 34% rated Bush the worst president with the breakdown being 21% among Protestants, 35% among Catholics and 15% among “evangelical” Christians. Typical national polls will show Protestants, Catholics, and “others and none” comprise about 67%, 25% and 8% of respondents, respectively. Taking Protestants and Catholics together, 25% would state Bush was the worst. If every one of the others (Jews, Orthodox, Muslims, none, etc) stated Bush was the worst, the proportion stating Bush would be the worst is only 32 percent, unless “others and none” comprise more than 10% of the sample. Of course not everyone in this group stated Bush was the worst, although unfortunately no figures are provided in the report.

Even more confusing is that 15% of “Evangelical Christians” think Bush was the worst. What proportion of the survey sample described themselves thusly? Some surveys show this would include 40% of Americans, but this proportion could vary considerably depending on how the questions is asked. Probably 90% in this group is “Protestant” in religious preference. Is this group counted separately from other “nonevangelical” Protestants or as part of the “Protestant” (and “Catholic” as some Catholics consider themselves evangelical or born-again) total? If the case is the former, the overall 34% total makes even less sense.

I read the original report via the link provided, but it provides no information on survey methodology or what proportions of the sample fell into each of the survey categories. It is possible (but extremely unlikely) that 50% of the survey sample fell into the “other category.” Not to state whether the “evangelicals” were enumerated separately from the other religious groups or are included as subsets of the religious groups is totally irresponsible. If the “other and none” religious category is large, data on it should have been reported separately along with the other religious groups as well as an observation that this group is an important share, with an exact proportion reported, of the survey sample.

ptolemy on June 2, 2006 at 11:59 AM

“Figures can lie and liars can figure” is the way I heard it.

Shmo on June 2, 2006 at 12:57 PM

from my dad: The masses are asses.

shooter on June 2, 2006 at 1:30 PM

ptolemy: it’s white protestants, catholics, evangels–assuming non-whites also participated in the sample (duh)–the math isn’t problematic.

honora on June 2, 2006 at 4:30 PM

Re Honora:

Thanks! What an oversight on my part. Nonetheless, all groups that are significantly large should be included in the tabulation.

ptolemy on June 2, 2006 at 6:02 PM