Weekend poll fun: RINOs abandon Bush in droves

posted at 12:50 pm on May 28, 2006 by Allahpundit

He’s lost 19 points among moderate and liberal Republicans in the last five months, and 29 points since January ’05. By contrast, only 11 and 14 percent of conservative Republicans abandoned ship during the same periods. Seems counterintuitive considering that Bush himself is a RINO in so many ways, but of course there’s a strong correlation between how far to the left or right one’s political views are and how strongly one supports the war. As things drag on in Iraq, Bush will pay a bigger price with centrists.

Danielle Pletka and Michael Rubin of AEI had an op-ed in the LA Times last week that might also partly explain the defection. According to P&R, Bush has betrayed the initial idealism of his foreign policy by buddying up to thugs like Qadaffi and Hu Jintao. Quote:

At his second inauguration, President Bush declared: “The survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands. The best hope for peace in our world is the expansion of freedom in all the world.”

Since that soaring pronouncement, the Bush administration has watched Egypt abrogate elections, ignored the collapse of the so-called Cedar Revolution in Lebanon and abandoned imprisoned Chinese dissidents; now Washington is mulling a peace treaty with Stalinist North Korea.

The question is, which group would object to this more fervently: moderate/liberal Republicans, or strong conservatives? I suspect the latter, which might explain why the lion’s share of those 14 points he’s lost among hardliners disappeared so recently.

More polls? Well, Rasmussen decided to re-run the 2004 election and discovered two things. First, Kerry wins this time by seven points. And second, he’s still a terrible candidate:

President Bush is still trusted by a few more voters than Kerry on the National Security issue. However, the President’s advantage is much smaller than it was during the election season–44% now trust the President more while 41% opt for Kerry…

On immigration, 43% trust the President more while 40% prefer Kerry.

You don’t need a poll to tell you how terrible he is, though. Some of the righty blogosphere’s heaviest hitters are reacting this morning to news that Kerry wants a rematch with the Swift Vets. Captain Ed, Patterico, Tom Maguire, and Jon Henke are incredulous.

Finally, here’s a fascinating poll from Gallup about trends in public attitudes towards various moral issues. Note the numbers for capital punishment, stem-cell research, and abortion. I have no explanation, but if anyone wants to venture one, I’m all ears. Insofar as they suggest the emergence of a “party of death,” I’ll bet Ramesh Ponnuru has some theories.

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Not relevant; What is the RINO (and conservative) breakout for Congress and the ‘do you plan to vote this year’?

Mike O on May 28, 2006 at 1:19 PM

People are just tired of W trying to split the difference. He’d have more respect from both liberals AND conservatives if he’d give RINO’s the boot.

It’s like trying to chase two women at the same time – they just wind up both being pissed at you. Sometimes you just have to sh*t or get off the pot.

venmax on May 28, 2006 at 1:21 PM

Biggest drop is among self-described conservatives. Also, the poll was late April-mid May – I wonder how the numbers would look after the full-fledged immigration debate.

Clark1 on May 28, 2006 at 5:19 PM

Consider who takes over some rather important congressional committees…

Government Reform – Henry Waxman
International Relations – Tom Lantos
Judiciary – John Conyers
Ways and Means – Charles Rangel
Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence – Jane Harman

Appropriations – Robert Byrd
Armed Services – Carl Levin
Foreign Relations – Joe Biden
Judiciary – Pat Leahy
Select Committee on Intelligence – John D Rockefeller

Consider the damage that can, and would, be done in just 2 years.

It matters. Hold your nose and do The Right Thing, lol.

MostlyHarmless on May 28, 2006 at 5:32 PM

I am not worrying about the poll.

When we are confronted by some real liberals standing there babbling, we will all gang up and vote the way we should.

The liberals will unite us.

I am very, very sure about it.


easy87us on May 28, 2006 at 5:40 PM

Are we back to polls again? I would have thought we learned our lesson in the 04 election cycle.

Check out this page at Rasmussen to see how they play with the numbers…

DannoJyd on May 28, 2006 at 7:02 PM

Polls always have more Democrats than Republicans. But do you know why?

Here is a simple reason….the selection of locations to do the polling.

They have a list of cities( area codes) to poll from. To be “fair”, they poll large cities more than small towns!!!!!!! For example, in Illinois, most of the polling is done in Chicago and Springfield, but not in Elmhurst!!!! If you poll every single state capital in the Union, you should get 58% to 42% favoring Democrats!

Not only they tilted the questions, they also can alter the outcome by the locations.


easy87us on May 28, 2006 at 8:03 PM

Massive transfer to the Constitution Party by true conservatives fed up with the “Imperial Senate”…..



VonHelton on May 28, 2006 at 8:12 PM

MostlyHarmless: If the RINO’s never get a reality check (losing due to conservative voter backlash)and forcing the GOP to take a good hard look at themselves for future campaigns, when will they?

I’ve held my breath a few times now and voted for RINO’s DeWine and Voinovich, and what good has it done? We have power but no will to lead. Sometimes I wish I was a Democrat; when they were in power, they didn’t give a rat’s a** what the Republicans wanted, they rolled right over them. I want people like that.

My frustration level has reached the point where I almost don’t care anymore if we lose the majority. While I don’t like the aspect of those you listed being in power, I do want to hear the RINO’s say “I dont understand it, wha’ happened?”

I was demoralized when DeWine won his primary because I knew I’d have to decide to vote or not this year, something I’ve never done. But, nothing else seems to work.

right as rain man on May 28, 2006 at 8:36 PM

There is something called PRIMARY! If we cannot kick them RINO out in the primary, they deserve to win. If the GOP cannot provide another candidate for the primary, they deserve to win.

You have to believe in our election system.


easy87us on May 28, 2006 at 10:51 PM

For each of us agonizing over whether to stick it to the GOP to allow Speaker Pelosi, there are a million people who do not read blogs and will either not vote or vote Dem. The Repubs have sealed their fate I suspect. My guess is that only a strong defense by the House on immigration that is nasty and in the news can prevent a wipe come Nov.

Clark1 on May 28, 2006 at 11:26 PM

“There is something called PRIMARY! If we cannot kick them RINO out in the primary, they deserve to win. If the GOP cannot provide another candidate for the primary, they deserve to win.”

Not so easy as that, when the GOP heirarchy supports every incumbent regardless of politcal stripe. Look at Penn in 2004, when Specter, as liberal as he is, was back to the hilt by the RNC Senate Cmt, Bush and Santorum. The risk of going against an incumbent is huge.

Clark1 on May 28, 2006 at 11:28 PM

The great American middle class has been disenfranchised and is under attack. The conservative Republicans are just the tip of this iceberg. Blue collar Democrats and white collar independents are also disenfranchised. What to do when those elected to represent us fail to do so?

Genuine change has NOT occured with the “normal” politial process. If more drastic (and admittedly risky) measures are not taken, the great American experiment will not avert failure. The price of freedom is eternal vigilance – remember? There is no “safe” way out of this one.

Just as the Republican party itself was begotten of the destruction of the Whigs over slavery (Kansas-Nebraska Act), so a new party must rise from the ashes of this Republican party over neo-slavery: illegal immigration.

The transition will be difficult and painful, but it is necessary.

The great middle class must find genuine representation, or the Constitution is dead.

dman on May 29, 2006 at 11:34 AM

Rinos are fair-weather Republicans at best whereas most conservatives are broken-glass Republicans. Therefore, whatever dropoff Bush experiences in his numbers from conservatives is much more severe than that among Chaffee-style “Republicans.” Bush has alienated much if not most of his conservative base in agreeing to unconstitutional campaign finance “reform,” allowing Congress to run wild with earmarks without any vetos, and in attempting to hand our country over to Mexico on a platter.

Personally, I am a conservative who has broken ranks with El Presidente Abusto on the immigration issue. In addition to disagreeing with his position, I believe he has lied to us in claiming he wants to secure the border While I will support him on issues of concern to conservatives, I will never trust him again. My view is that for the time being it is important that his poll numbers remian abysmally low or, preferably, sink even lower, to minimize any clout he could exercise in inducing the House to agree to the abomination of an amnesty bill that will destoy our country in 30-40 years if allowed to become law.

ptolemy on May 29, 2006 at 11:37 AM

We all know that whatever the House and Senate agree on will not include a real fence. The one thing that should be done first won’t be.

What’s so frustrating is, the RINO’s spent all this time pandering to the Mexicans believing it will help them at the polls when it won’t. From the looks of the moonbats protesting recently, they sure looked like Democridiots to me.

The GOP are definately the Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight, unless they’re trying to shoot themselves in the foot.

right as rain man on May 29, 2006 at 12:32 PM

They’re shooting us in the back.

dman on May 29, 2006 at 1:20 PM

I will vote Republican, not because I’m foolish enough to believe campaign promises, but because I’m realistic enough to see that the Democrats can’t be trusted. They would screw up this country so badly that we wouldn’t have to worry about the rest of the world envying us anymore. In order to blott out every victory of the Bush Administration, if they regain power, I think that they would:
Pull out of Iraq, destabilizing the entire region.
Open the borders
Sign on to the Kyoto treaty, thereby destroying our economy driving up unemployment and making larger government necessary to “take care of” a greatly multiplied undereducated, unskilled population.
Turn our back on Israel.
Allow the United Nation to dictate policy for our country.
Think I’m too far out there? They will do what they can to erase the Bush presidency. And advance the socialist communist agenda. Vote Republican.

Doug on May 29, 2006 at 5:27 PM

They cannot do any of that if the Republicans keep the House.

Spank the Senate, hold the House.

dman on May 29, 2006 at 9:16 PM

Interesting article I read somewhere suggests that Bush can recover if people have turned against him thinking he is incompetent–just show competence (duh….) If however people have turned on him because they don’t agree with his positions/views/values, game over.

What is befuddling about the immigration scenario is that all along the traditional wisdom has been the Republicans could hold the conservative base if they would be willing to sacrifice the Latino vote, and visa versa. Somehow we now appear to be in danger of doing both. Sweet mother of God.

honora on May 30, 2006 at 1:10 PM

BEE ESS. He’s lost points among conservatives over his RINO illegal alien policy. I’m as conservative as they come, and he’s lost my confidence.

Kevin M on May 30, 2006 at 10:28 PM