Via Newsbusters, consider this part two of the Romney post earlier. That one ended with me asking whether Mitt would jump in late if Christie jumped in early and was competitive with conservative heroes like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Scarborough’s answer: Yep, Romney will jump. There’s no way the GOP establishment will risk seeing a tea partier nominated by betting the farm on a guy like Christie, who has scandal problems, whose tough-guy act may not play with midwestern or southern voters, and whose only chance realistically at winning one of the three early states is New Hampshire — where he also might not play. (Even in New Jersey, his favorable rating is underwater for the first time in three years at 42/45.) Case in point: Even when he’s goofing on Senate dysfunction and polishing his own executive credentials, he comes off as overbearing.

“When I say I’m never running for public office in New Jersey again, I mean: I’m never running for public office in New Jersey again. The only job left for me to run for is United States Senate, and let me just say this: I would rather die than be in the United States Senate,” Christie said, adding emphasis on the words, “I would rather die.”

“I would be bored to death,” he continued. “Could you imagine me, banging around that chamber with 99 other people, asking for a motion on the amendment in the subcommittee? Forget it. It would be over, everybody. You’d watch me just walk out and walk right into the Potomac River and drown. That would be it.”

You’d rather die than help craft policy for the country because it means you’d have to play nice with others? C’mon.

Here’s the real answer to the “will Mitt get in if Christie jumps first?” question: If Scarborough’s right that establishmentarians have decided Christie’s a loser, they won’t wait around for Romney to find an alternative. It’s too risky. Romney might decide at the last minute, for whatever reason, that he can’t run again, leaving centrists stuck with Christie as their only hope on the eve of the Iowa caucuses. In fact, the more respectable Christie’s early polling is, the harder it’ll make it for Mitt to come to the rescue late. There’d be a chance that he’d split centrists with Christie at the last minute, allowing Cruz or Paul to squeak to victory in Iowa or New Hampshire and catalyzing their shot at the nomination. The donor class likes to settle on a single centrist champion early precisely because they don’t want the center-right bloc split and weakened while facing the dreaded tea-party hordes. So if what Morning Joe says is true, and if Jeb Bush does indeed pass, there’s a simple solution — country-clubbers will find an alternative to Christie early, without waiting around for Mitt. It’ll probably be Rubio or Scott Walker, just because Rob Portman’s support for legalizing gay marriage is too much of a liability with the base. And once they’ve settled on Rubio or Walker or some other Not Christie establishment type, it’ll become nearly impossible for Romney to jump in later. If he did, centrists would risk splitting three ways, between Rubio/Walker, a struggling Christie, and Romney. That’s the real reason why a Romney 2016 run is unlikely. To do it he’d have to make his intentions clear earlier, not later (as he’d prefer), to avoid a three-car establishment pile-up before Iowa.

Exit question: How do you discourage Christie from running in the first place if you’re hoping for an establishment nominee? Presumably, if/when Jeb announces he’s not running, you’ll see lots of fatcats suddenly declare their support for a Not Christie candidate, signaling to the big guy that he’s better off passing this time too.