“As a 2008 primary front-runner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani tanked. But as a 2012 dark horse, he could do surprisingly well.

“It’s not because Giuliani has shifted; it’s because the Republican Party has. The 2010 election was less about social conservatism than it was fiscal conservatism, and that aligns with Giuliani’s socially moderate and fiscally conservative ideology.

“There is another promising wind of change blowing Giuliani’s way, one that’s less ideological. This isn’t the era of kinder, gentler politicians. This is the age of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — three politicians whose appeal lives, partly, in their aggressive rhetoric…

“Thus, both the national ideology and aesthetics of these political times are more favorable to Giuliani than, perhaps, at any time in his political career.”

***
“Gregg, New Hampshire’s retiring senator, acts likes he’s not running but hasn’t ruled it out. (If he did run as New Hampshire’s favorite son, it would complicate things for Romney.) Pence, the Indiana representative, definitely wants to run but now may switch to the Indiana governorship instead.

“Barbour, perhaps the sharpest political operator with a natural Southern constituency in a Southern-dominated party, could be a front-runner (and a hilarious and adept debate opponent for Obama), but his plans remain murky…

“Thune will probably discover early that his Senate colleagues’ telling him to run isn’t necessarily a compliment. In many respects, Thune is the GOP version of John Kerry: a candidate with very presidential hair who seems ‘electable’ despite not having done much of anything.”

***
“Liberals have become completely extinct in the Republican Party. This may seem obvious but 9% of primary voters in these six states still identified themselves as liberals even in 2008. That figure is all the way down to 2.5% on these polls. Whatever liberals remained in the GOP as recently as three years ago have left the ranch now.

“On average the percentage of GOP primary voters identifying themselves as conservatives in these states in 2008 was 63%. Now it’s 73%. And not surprisingly in addition to the decline of liberals as an influential force in the GOP moderates are on the way down too- from an average of 29% of the primary electorate in 2008 to now 24%.

“These numbers make it clear how severe Romney’s problems with conservatives are – there just aren’t that many moderate to liberal GOP voters left to prop him back up. There’s been a thought that a centrist could win the nomination in 2012 if the conservatives cannibalize each other but I don’t think moderates have a big enough piece of the pie to get someone nominated even if there are a glut of conservative candidates.”

***
“Our Republican Panel, which surveys a large national pool of Republicans each week, shows similar results in a slightly different way.

“While 70% of those we polled say Romney’s a proven leader, when asked if he’s the kind of leader America needs right now, only 42% said yes. Voters clearly appreciate Romney’s leadership experience, but that does not translate into enthusiasm about him as President. Only 23% say he’s more electable than other potential candidates. And a majority say that he is either out of touch with ordinary voters or they aren’t sure – leaving a minority who believe that he can relate to average Americans…

“So the question about splitting up the conservative vote seems to reflect a partially valid concern, in my opinion, but it’s ultimately an incomplete question. The 2012 primary will also be about which candidate can consistently and persuasively address these multiple concerns and interests that conservative voters have. Romney doesn’t stand apart from the group as the one moderate versus all the conservatives. He’ll be one among a larger group being asked where he stands. I personally think that will be an uphill climb for him.”

***
“The problem is that even though conservatives — for good reason — are skeptical about Romney, to beat him, they’ll have to rally around another candidate. Otherwise, the conservatives will just split their vote up in a crowded field and Romney will be the last man standing, just like John McCain in 2008. It’s true that in a followup, PPP noted that the electorate in 2012 is trending more conservative than the one that nominated McCain. But that still doesn’t answer the question — who is going to beat Romney? Tim Pawlenty? Sarah Palin? Newt Gingrich? Mike Huckabee? As long as conservatives are fighting over the answer to that question, Romney can sneak in. And this would be highly problematic, because as I’ve written before, a Romney nomination would kill the movement to repeal ObamaCare.”