Catch-22.

The political repercussions for Congressional Democrats of not passing a health care bill could be severe. Our newest national survey finds that Democrats lead 46-38 on the generic Congressional ballot. But asked how they would vote if no health care bill is passed respondents split 40-40 between saying they would vote Democratic or Republican in next year’s election.

In some sense the Democrats may be in a damned if you don’t or damned if you do position on health care. Asked how they would vote for Congress next year if a health care bill with a public option is passed respondents said they would go Democratic by a 46-41 margin, still more narrow than before any hypotheticals about health care outcomes were introduced into the questions…

There is a price to pay with independents if a strong health care bill is passed. Democrats lead 37-30 with them in general on the generic ballot, but they say they’ll vote 44-37 for the GOP if a bill with a public option makes it through. Clearly some independents are sitting on the fence waiting to see what happens with health care before they decide how to vote next year and Democrats could push them toward the Republican side by passing a bill without bipartisan support.

No surprise, really, on any of those numbers. If they pass a crappy bill, independents will turn on them (44/37 among indies is trainwreck territory for the Democrats), but if they pass nothing, their base will have a conniption and stay home. Rich Lowry anticipated the conundrum in his column today: By investing so much time and political capital in what they refuse to recognize is an unpopular bill, the Dems are now damned if they do and damned if they don’t. But since they’re more damned if they don’t, isn’t the logical solution to the problem in Congress to pass the “half a loaf” bill that Lowry suggests by stripping out the public option and caving on abortion funding? House liberals are the sticking point, but as this drags into next year — no need to rush! — and the prospects of a GOP wave loom larger, the choice for progressives will become either passing whatever’s feasible or passing nothing and handing control of the House to Republicans in November. At the rate The One’s numbers are sinking, they should be seeing the light at any time now.

In very much related and important news, a Blue Dog who’s held a red seat for the past 12 years has suddenly decided now might be a good time to retire. Quote: “Moore, who won his last race 56 to 40 percent over Jordan, was in trouble because of his support for many of President Barack Obama’s initiatives, including the stimulus package and health care reform.” Meanwhile, in North Dakota, longtime incumbent Byron Dorgan trails the state’s Republican governor in a hypothetical match-up … by 20 points. Exit question: In this awful political climate, where they’re already handicapped, will Democrats really be so stupid as to wage war on each other? As a certain bestselling author might say: You betcha.